Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez is now the president of Cuba, effectively ending the 60-year reign of the Castro brothers over the island State. His ascension to power comes at a very decisive turning point in the history of Cuba as for the first time in 60 years a Castro will not be at the head of the Government.

It would appear that Diaz-Canel’s power will be somewhat limited as Raul Castro, at age 86, will remain as the head of the Communist Party and the armed forces — the lifeblood of political power in the country. His son runs the intelligence service with its emphasis on national security and his ex-son-in-law is still in charge of the military’s business interests. Many doubt, therefore, whether the changing of the guard will result in any great change of the Cuban political status quo.

In his first speech, Diaz-Canel has vowed that there will be no “capitalist restoration”. This is a clear indication that there is no intention to depart from the communist philosophy that has guided Cuba since the Castros rode into power in 1959.

But the world has changed radically since 1959. In a globalised world the Cuban economy faces peculiar challenges. Since he came to power in 2008, Raul Castro has sought to open the economy to private enterprise, but it is still very centralised. The grip of the Communist Party on the economy is still very tight and entrepreneurial talent, especially among the young, is being stifled. Although it still has a commendable educational and health system, the physical infrastructure of Cuba needs a lot of attention.

The single most important challenge that will face Diaz-Canel is the impatience of the youth for economic and political reform and their ability to participate in the Cuban economy. Essential to this is access to the Internet, which is still being stymied by the closed and often repressive political system that obtains there. There is every indication that the clamant call of the youth for reform and inclusion will only grow louder. There is hope among them that the passing of the Castro era will set the stage for meaningful reform to occur. My belief is that many will be impatient with any continued attempt to suppress access to Internet technology or to tolerate repression of dissent.

The young people of Cuba have known no other head of State than the Castros. Out of deference to them — the “old men” of the revolution — they have shown great patience. But the country is now ripe for change. My suspicion is that while Diaz-Canel will trumpet the revolutionary line to remain in power, he will come under increasing pressure to lessen the grip of the Communist Party over the country.

Raul might have sensed this, which is why he is remaining at the helm of the party. But the pressure for change both from within and without can only become more intense. Something will give; hopefully in the short term, for the betterment of the country.

What, then, does the future portend? Any change that will occur will be gradual and not as radical as some may want it. Americans, for example, think that they can force democracy upon Cuba as if this can occur overnight. America could be a leveraging force, but its approach to the Cuban problem from the very beginning has not been enlightened. The embargo that was imposed on the country has been the single most important factor that has cemented the Castros in power. In fiery revolutionary rhetoric they have been able to point to real or imagined imperialistic designs from their wicked neighbour to the north as a reason for maintaining rigid control over the country.

It is nothing short of a miracle that Cuba has been able to maintain a communist regime for so many years almost on the doorsteps of communism’s most implacable enemy. It is arguable that if there was no embargo, the reign of the Castros would have ended earlier and the journey towards greater openness and democracy could have been ushered in.

This is perhaps why the Barack Obama Administration reopened relations with the country. But this is being fought by the new occupant in the White House, who has employed the tried and failed rhetoric of the Republican Party in dealing with the Cuban question. The most that one can hope for in the short term is the continued, gradual opening of the economy begun by Raul, supported by greater access to the Internet.

America could be a leveraging force in this endeavour, but America is not presently governed by the kind of enlightened leadership that can help to guide this change. The Obama presidency moved in the right direction to opening ties with the country, but since Donald Trump took office a wet blanket has been thrown on this initiative.

In the end, the country may end up with a hybrid of the Chinese system in which economic reform has been blessed with political centralisation. The country must forge greater ties with its neighbours in Latin America, who should continue to press America for a better attitude toward the country. But Cuba must carry out its own internal changes and allow its citizens to be more creative in taking control of their own powers of self-determination. There can be no place for repression of dissent or criticism of the regime. A more open, robust civil society must be encouraged.

This is a direction in which Jamaica and Cuba’s neighbours can urge the country. No serious student of where Cuba now is can harbour the thought that the old revolutionary era can and will be easily and quickly dispensed with. But change must occur, and there is not a better time for that to take place than now.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest and social commentator. Send comments to the Observer or stead6655@aol.com.