Happy New Year! So let’s refresh our minds of the mission of this generation and allow Cabinet to say what it expects to achieve to this end and what we can do to help. The fathers of Independence set us the task to prosper Jamaica; our serial Cabinets never repudiated it, but never achieved it.

We are endowed with economists, but there is no correlation between them and economic growth. Economics, like weather, is as climate giving rise to vague forecasts and much analysis after the event.

The concepts of comparative advantage and economies of scale properly understood may drive growth in 2019. Historians do not make history, and Cabinets do not make growth; it is the fruit of those who venture, create products, jobs, make profits. Cabinet must create a good business milieu and maximise those who venture. So here we stand once again, and it behoves us to examine from whence our growth is derived and what we should do to get it going.

Business matters. People in business are our armies of growth and associations of small businesses and farmers — Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ), Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC), and Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association (JMEA) — are the battalions under whose banners they range. Small producers are critical, and so we must enquire, support and track them. How dynamic are they? What’s the cost of creating a job? How many graduate to the Blue Chip? What do they need?

Most starting in business have no innovation or a special product; they want income, a replacement for the job they lost or never had. Most bring nothing to the table; no ideas, no savings, so they want cash from someone — high risk! The success rate is poor, but Cabinet should support them. They do not want handouts or to go the illicit route, so to fund them aids the fight against crime; value for our taxes.

Cabinet’s support for small business and farmers is the cheapest way to create jobs, bruit crime, target welfare. Profitable ones is a good extra and banks may adopt them. So, for 2019, Cabinet must foster small ventures on a parish basis as a priority to assure stability and maybe jobs.

Economies of scale is our future. We cannot prosper on our own market or Caricom’s. The elite in the JMEA, PSOJ, JCC are crucial, so Cabinet must make doing business easy in an environment which gives access to equity or credit. Scale speaks to low costs based on high production and we look to them for this vision. Small nations grow if they can harvest large markets using offshore finance centres, tourism, remittances, or deliberately target these markets with product: The Bahamas has per capita income multiples of ours from tourism; and Cayman was once our junior from offshore financial services.

Japan, with no resources, targeted volume production for export. They invested in training, factories; ships brought oil, raw material multiples above that for local product and left with finished goods. They made cricket gear and stuff for games they did not play, and now China exports products its own people can’t afford.

Recently a headline ‘Dominica leads economic growth for the Caribbean’ ( Jamaica Observer, December 28, 2018) was both appealing and appalling, as even 500 per cent growth there will not affect us in the same fraternity; yet if America grows 10 per cent we bloom. Market size matters!

We asked Cabinet to secure market access to the Dominican Republic; common market rights to Nigeria and its near 200 million market. Cabinet must do it! Why Africa? They sold us to the white man so they owe us! And relations set by Marcus Garvey, old politicians, and The University of the West Indies work for us. Also the logistics of direct transatlantic ship or air freight to West Africa are good. Their dust blows here bringing asthma and disease — 1 same day service! Time to get a box to Guyana is equal to direct sail to Nigeria with one shipload of tissue and sanitary pads each week. Even 10 per cent of that market is 800 per cent of ours. Help, Jampro!

Comparative advantage says we should grow stuff no one did or we do better. Once cocoa, banana, coffee, ginger was it, while Europe, America manufactured goods. But Japan flipped the script. Today, China uses State power to create comparative advantage where none existed. Can we? If China can get into Africa can’t we?

Technology and climate change do not help our farmers, nor do Cabinets. Rich nations use subsidy to create comparative advantage. We buy subsidised chicken back, wheat, rice, corn, cheese, lamb, butter from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, who value rural development, yet Cabinets refuse to subsidise our farmers. For generations we struggle to grow and many cite near-misses under their favoured political leader. Now Prime Minister Andrew Holness is in pole position, and in this last lap he must tell us his plan. Sir, chat with producers; set targets, monitor; involve us as we are used to heavy lifting. Stay conscious!

Franklin Johnston, D Phil (Oxon), is a strategist and project manager; Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK); and lectures in logistics and supply chain management at Mona School of Business and Management, The University of the West Indies. Send comments to the Observer or franklinjohnstontoo@gmail.com.