If time afflicts you, you should persevere as it will eventually favour you. — Yoruba proverb Nigeria

Last Tuesday, our Minister of Health and Wellness Dr Christopher Tufton broke the unfortunate, but predictable news that Jamaica had a confirmed case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). I don’t believe many people who realistically believed that Jamaica would have been left unscathed by the impact of this pandemic (according to the World Health Organization [WHO]).

My column last Sunday noted that the the British Broadcasting Corporation ( BBC) had reported that over just 45,000 people had recovered from COVID-19. I received e-mail from some readers expressing surprise, and some delight, that so many folks had recovered from the disease.

Two of my regular readers sent me examples of local social media posts which illustrate how people whose objectives are suspect tacitly told folks that COVID-19 was an automatic death sentence. I will not give such individuals any oxygen by repeating their false and possibly malicious posts here. I think we should make a special effort to avoid rumours, unverified reports, and individuals who certainly will use these times of anxiety to exploit, especially the vulnerable.

Stick to the science

It is best that we all stick to the science.

I believe our best bet, especially from here on, is to heighten our methods of prevention in every humanly possible way.

At the time of writing, just over 4,012 people globally had died from the novel coronavirus disease, while just under 114,000 infections had been confirmed in 110 countries, according to the WHO.

The BBC reported last Thursday that there were just under 7,900 people in serious/critical condition globally, while a little less than 68,000 had recovered from the disease.

I am in no way, shape, or form asking my fellow Jamaicans to let down their guard for one single, solitary second because the number of those who have recovered is comparatively very high matched against those who have died.

We need to take every single precautionary and informed measure to protect life and limb. In doing so, we need to look out not just for ourselves, but also our neighbours.

I must re-emphasise that COVID-19 is not a death sentence, as some misguided people on social media have been leading others to believe, doubtless with the objective of promoting panic.

I did a bit of research from the following resources, The Lancet, WHO, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CNN, BBC, EcoInternet, Smithsonian Magazine, Inter Press Service, and the University of Navarra in Spain. The sources mentioned agree that we need to be very cautious, but must not panic.

Here is a summary of their reasons:

1) Science knows how to detect the virus.

2) COVID-19 is not a death sentence.

3) Close to 68,000 peoples worldwide have recovered/discharged.

4) The COVID-19 causes no symptoms or is mild in 81 per cent of cases.

5) Social distancing and mitigation work

6) Symptoms are mild in children.

7) Only three per cent of cases occur in individuals under 20, and mortality under 40 is only 0.2 per cent.

8) The virus can be effectively inactivated from surfaces with a solution of ethanol, (60-70 per cent alcohol), hydrogen peroxide (0.5 per cent hydrogen peroxide), or Sodium Hypochlorite [0.1 per cent bleach], in just a minute

9) Frequent hand washing with soap and water is the most effective way to avoid contagion.

10) Scientists are working around the clock to find a vaccine.

11) Vaccine prototypes exist. The University of Queensland in Australia, for example, has announced that it is working on a prototype called “molecular clamp” for a new technology.

12) Vaccines are preventive.

On the political front

On December 29, 2019, I said in my column that I had completed road trips into 12 of our 14 parishes — Kingston and St Andrew not included — between mid-March 2019 and early December 2019.

I noted, among other things: “I believe if the elections were held today the People’s National Party (PNP) would lose nine of the seats they now have, and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) three. Politically, I believe Dr Peter Phillips has been ‘weighed on the scales and found wanting’ (Daniel 5:27). The writing has been on the wall for just under three years.” ( Jamaica Observer, December 29, 2019)

The most recent RJRGleaner-commissioned Don Anderson party standing shows the JLP eight percentage points ahead of the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP). By my back-of-the-envelope calculations, this means the PNP would lose 19 of their current 29 seats if an election were called today — albeit we know polls are snapshots of moments in time. The political mathematics is not on the PNP’s side at this time.

Political flatlining

However, they slice it or dice it, the PNP’s political crockery is broken. In my December 29, 2019 piece, I said, if a general election were called the PNP and the JLP would have lost the following seats:

1. Derrick Kellier — St James Southern

2. Colin Fagan — St Catherine South Eastern

3. Horace Dalley — Clarendon Northern

4. Dr Fenton Ferguson — St Thomas Eastern

5. Dr Dayton Campbell – St Ann North Western

6. Robert Pickersgill – St Catherine North Western

7. Richard Azan — Clarendon North Western

8. Noel Arscott — Clarendon South Western

9. Victor Wright – Trelawny Northern

10. Frank Witter — St Elizabeth South Eastern

11. J C Hutchinson — St Elizabeth North Western

12. Rudyard Spencer — Clarendon South Eastern

Since the mentioned article, the findings of two scientific polls have found that 89 Old Hope Road is in even more dire straits. They are drowning politically.

On January 21, 2020, the Nationwide News Network-commissioned Bluedot poll, revealed inter alia: The JLP’s lead over the PNP is in double digits — 12 points.

The Nationwide Bluedot pollsters asked: “If the elections were being held today, which party would you vote for?”

Some 56 per cent said JLP, and 44 per cent, PNP. That’s a big gap of 12 per cent.”

The margin of error was just under three per cent.

Last Tuesday, The Gleaner reported, among other things: “According to the latest polls released by Anderson, 30 per cent of respondents signalled that they would vote for the JLP if a general election were to be held now. Twenty-two per cent said they would vote for the PNP. Twenty-four per cent of the respondents did not make up their minds, and another 24 per cent said they would not be voting in the upcoming general election, constitutionally due by 2021.

At the last opinion poll, in March 2019, the JLP was ahead of the PNP by 11 per cent, but Chang believes the gap will widen when the party hits the road campaigning.

The margin of error is plus or minus three per cent.

The JLP has started its fifth year as the Administration. Except for a period during the JLP’s winter years post-1989, when Edward Seaga remained fixated on leadership, I do not remember nor I have read where a ruling party in Jamaica has been ahead of the Opposition by eight percentage points in their fifth year at the wheel. This is a precedent.

Last November, I wrote, among other things: Politically, I believe, Dr Peter Phillips has been “weighed on the scales and found wanting” (Daniel 5:27). The writing has been on the wall for just under three years.” ( Jamaica Observer, The Agenda, December 3, 2019)

These latest findings from pollster Don Anderson seem to coincide like a hand to a glove with my observations and conclusions based on the unscientific finding of my road trips. This banner by The Gleaner, ‘Poll finds Peter Phillips is Opposition’s worst performing spokesperson’ is a political SOS, which 89 Hope Road must not dismiss with churlish rhetoric, sickening double speak and antiquated political sophistry, such as was mouthed by Phillip Paulwell, the PNP’s campaign director, on the radio last Tuesday. Paulwell recently said the PNP has a poll which shows them in the lead. Where did I hear this line before? Ah, yes, it was during the by-election in Portland Eastern. The country was told by the PNP that it had a poll which showed Damion Crawford, then the most popular politician in the PNP, with a handsome lead over then political neophyte Ann-Marie Vaz. Those poll findings were not worth the paper they were written on.

PNP’s ‘Duh Road’ campaign puncture

These drowsy findings for the PNP, by Anderson, after Phillips’s recent national trek, show that the PNP is continuing along a trajectory which will end in a mighty political shellacking. In mid-February I gave the alert regarding the PNP’s ‘Duh Road’ islandwide bus tour as follows: “If the pictures/videos I see on social media are accurate, however, the response to Phillips’s bus tour has been meagre.” ( Jamaica Observer, The Agenda, February 16, 2020)

Between January and last week, the findings of two scientific polls have indicated that the pendulum of public opinion has swung firmly against the PNP. Both polling organisations have found that Dr Peter Phillips, president of the PNP and leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, is noticeably less popular than the party he heads. The PNP is effectively carrying Dr Phillips on its shoulders, instead of the conventional reverse. This is a first in local party politics.

On March 11, 2017 I stated the following beliefs, among other things, in this space: “Phillips is yesterday’s man, leading the political party of last week.”

In an article a few months after, I noted, inter alia: “Dr Phillips will be the first head of one of our two major political parties/Opposition leader not to become prime minister.”

I don’t yet suspect that I am incorrect.

Here is a classic example of the PNP’s current tone deafness: “The Jamaica Labour Party has done a very sophisticated linkage between what I would call governmental communication and party communication,” suggesting a strategic commingling of public resources with partisan motives…

There is a tremendous and notable act of coordination between ministries which have their public relations campaigns, ministers which have their own public relations campaigns, the official apparatus of the Jamaica Information Service ( JIS). They have done a job with tremendous resources that keep the things in front.

However, Phillips said that the Government’s public relations efforts have now come face to face with the reality being experienced by Jamaicans. (excerpted from The Gleaner, March 10, 2020)

This approach will not bear good fruits, Dr Phillips. Public relations does not float on vapour.

Another glaring weakness of the PNP’s failing approach is its frequents attempt to wrestle credit for things which it has not done. This further cements an existing view that Norman Manley’s party is exceedingly desperate.

The PNP needs to apply some intellectual elbow crease to its bid to retake Jamaica House. The fact is this Administration has some aces:

* It has done well on the macroeconomic fronts by any objective measurement.

* Unemployment is at 7.2 per cent, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin). This is the lowest in our history.

* Jamaica has just over US$3 billion in reserves in our central bank — the most we’ve had since our country’s political independence.

* Our debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is improving.

* Business and consumer confidence are still at record highs.

* Inflation is at a record low.

* The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) recently reported that we have had 20 consecutive quarters of growth.

* Rating agency Moody’s recently upgraded Jamaica’s outlook from positive to stable, while upgrading the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the Government of Jamaica from B3 to B2.

* Standard and Poor’s recently upgraded Jamaica’s credit rating to B+ from B.

* Other major international rating agencies, for example, Fitch, have either affirmed and/or upgraded their outlook on Jamaica from stable to positive.

The PNP will not be able to convince folks that the macroeconomic gains which have been acknowledged also by very reputable international agencies, including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, are just public relations. Continuing to say otherwise smacks of ‘bad mind’ and reinforces negatives about the PNP’s leadership, especially against the background of certain ‘house’ utterances from the last general election.

It does not seem to understand that rhetoric without matching tangible impact/action is yesterday’s politics. Folks are no longer willing to sacrifice their physiological needs on the altar of ideology. I believe the PNP needs to focus on how it can deliver new and or better policies and programmes to improve the lives of our people in a sustained manner.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.