A member of The University of the West Indies COVID-19 Task Force that developed the 2,500 tests now being used locally to detect those infected with the flu-like virus, says it would take about three weeks to get the components needed to create more, unless there is a shortage of reagents used in the process.

“There is a shortage of N95 masks and now there might be a shortage of this particular component for PCR (polymerase chain reaction), because it’s very commonly used for many different types of PCR analyses that are being used, and in particular for the COVID testing that’s being done in the US; so it depends on the supply chain, too. If that’s okay, then… for sure, three weeks… that shouldn’t be a problem,” said Dr Joshua Anzinger, who is also director of the Global Virus Network, Centre of Excellence at The University of the West Indies (UWI).

While the ideal would be to have as many tests available as possible, he told the Jamaica Observer on Thursday that another 2,000 would be a more realistic number.

“It depends on how many people you have that are able to do that work [of putting the components together]. And so that is one potential bottleneck — in terms of having the people that are proficient, and not enough people to be able to do that,” he said.

With the help of a Pan American Health Organization representative, Dr Anzinger and his team created and administered the first local test on February 13. Jamaica was among a number of countries in the Americas selected to set up and perform tests for the new coronavirus.

Factors used to determine country selection included past experience doing PCR testing, and having the equipment needed. According to Anzinger, Jamaica already had a number of the machines needed to put the test together, each costing between US$50,000 to US$70,000.

But while testing is a big part of the process, finding existing drugs that can be used in treating COVID-19 is also vitally important, according to Dr Anzinger, as the search continues for a vaccine. The first person was administered with the Moderna vaccine on March 17, and more trials are expected to begin in the coming months, but there is no way to know when one that works will be found.

“We’re in a very sticky situation because we don’t have any effective treatment that we know of right now. And we’re kind of biding our time until a vaccine; but that’s about a year away, best-case scenario,” he said.

The approach now is to identify treatments that can decrease the number of severe cases and deaths. Pointing out that an HIV drug earlier touted as a possible treatment was found to be ineffective in severely ill people, Dr Anzinger stressed the need for rigorous clinical trials. The results of one such study being done internationally are expected in May, he said.

“Everyone is eagerly awaiting the results of that to see if there’s any effect of that treatment in decreasing severity [of the disease] and deaths,” he said. He added that there was no harm in pursuing recent suggestions that a drug was available from Cuba, as long as there was clinical evidence that it works.

For now, the medical doctor is looking ahead to the long term, and not just at the health implications.

“So now then, what is the next move? A lot of people are watching China, because they don’t have any new cases and they basically shut it down. But what is their next move, because not everybody got infected, they still have a lot of people that are not immune, presumably,” he said. “So, for example, if they let up their restrictions altogether, and you have people coming into China from outside and it gets reintroduced, they’re going to go through the process again, in all likelihood. So what is the move? What is the move for Jamaica? Nobody really knows. Are we going to be stuck in this phase for months? Are we going to ease up to try and have the economy come back on line? I don’t think anyone has the answers to these things now. So I think we’re kind of stuck in this spot,” he said.

According to the World Health Organization, there were 244,693 confirmed cases of COVID-19 up to Thursday (7,516 of them severe), 10,024 deaths, and 87,407 people had recovered.