THE EDITOR: Thirty-two seats is the minimum either of the two major political parties will need to win on September 3 to get a mandate to form the next Government. With both parties having a bunch of seats that they are almost certain to win, the push will be for a handful of marginal ones to determine the winner of the race to 32.

Two analysts, with ties to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP), will be looking at these key seats in the lead up to September 3 starting with St Andrew West Rural where the JLP’s Juliet Cuthbert-Flynn is defending a 2,062 margin against newcomer Krystal Tomlinson.

THE LABOURITE: Krystal Tomlinson is a good candidate but her party president Dr Peter Phillips is a burden. I consider the St Andrew West Rural seat as one which has leaned to the JLP since 2002 despite the PNP wining it in 2011

Even if the PNP had a very popular leader I still believe Tomlinson just couldn’t win.

Of the 13 contested elections in the constituency, the JLP has won the seat seven times, while the PNP has enjoyed six victories.

For Cuthbert-Flynn to lose this election Labourites would have to stay home in numbers on Election Day, either because they are disgruntled or they are over confident.

The only candidates to get more than 9,000 votes in this seat have been Labourites, Mavis Gilmour with 11,961 votes in 1980, Cuthbert-Flynn 9,736 in 2016 and Andrew Gallimore 9,578 in 2007.

Frankly speaking even if Tomlinson is having a great night I don’t see her getting 9,000 votes. I just don’t see her adding more than 1,300 votes to the 7,638 which Paul Buchanan got in 2016 when her party, and its president, are so unpopular.

I do see her maybe breaking her PNP’s record in this seat set in 1989 by Claude Clarke, who polled 8,170 votes. I also suspect that Cuthbert-Flynn will be one of the few candidates in this upcoming election to go over the 10,000 votes mark.

With Prime Minister Andrew Holness and the JLP’s popularity I will not be surprised if Cuthbert-Flynn breaks Mavis Gilmour’s record.

Only once in its history has St Andrew West Rural been won by the PNP while the JLP was given the mandate to form the Government and that was in 1962 where Allan Isaacs polled 7,822 to defeat the JLP’s Emile Joseph who polled 6,358 votes. But Isaacs would not have won if Rose Leon, the former JLP chairwoman, had not contested the seat as an independent candidate pulling 1,615 votes which would have surely gone to Joseph.

The race is St Andrew West Rural is one the Olympian Cuthbert-Flynn would have to choke to lose.

THE COMRADE: Krystal Tomlinson has been a huge success so far in her 30 years because of her philosophy in life which is: “I remain under construction. I will not be too proud to review, repurpose and reposition.”

That is the attitude this overachiever takes into to her giant killing mission in St Andrew West Rural. She is going into the pro-JLP constituency with her proven record of hard work, applied intellect, spirit, political savvy and the ability to adapt and win at everything she sets out to achieve.

She is a perfect fit for a Jamaica needing to be governed by a blend of political experience and youthful hard workers.

Krystal is desperate to see improvements in the condition of the people in the constituency where she was born and which she sees is underserved and under-represented by the incumbent.

“I am not happy that 30 years after I was born there, where I had to catch water in a bath pan and throw it on me to rinse off, that is still the reality of too many residents,” Krystal argued in a recent Jamaica Observer interview.

“There is no running water, poor infrastructural development and the pace of people investment has just been slow. This constant commitment to the slow introduction of progress inside west rural St Andrew has just gotten on my nerves, and the people are tired of it,” added Krystal.

As in all things Krystal, has concrete plans for improvements in the lives of the residents of the constituency. A solid new deal for coffee farmers in the mountains of St Andrew sits high on that list.

This dynamic young president of the PNP’s Youth Organisation will, as she has all her life, listen to, improvise and work to achieve for the people in the constituency she is seeking to represent after September 3.

Krystal’s youth, vibrancy and ability to respond with the hard work that will be demanded, will resound and attract the under-represented crucial voters in the 18-40 age group.

This will attract a strong following across the four divisions in the constituency and deepen the support pool for the PNP.

The young mother has a perfect blend of knowledge and of her people and sees their need for proper political representation. This is what pulled her out of a hugely successful niche in corporate Jamaica into a full-time political role.

Now Krystal wants a chance to work for her people.

YOUR VERDICT: Comment below to share who you expect in St Andrew West Rural to win election night.