What happens if the Prime Minister loses his seat?
On September 3 Andrew Holness will contest the West Central St Andrew seat for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in a general election for the sixth time and his second as prime minister.
Though he is expected to defeat perennial challenger Patrick Roberts of the People’s National Party (PNP), a surprise loss, but a win for the JLP, would mean a shuffling of the deck for the ruling party.
The Jamaican Constitution stipulates that the prime minister must be a Member of Parliament. A loss for Holness would put a victorious JLP in a quagmire.
“Either the party appoints a new leader or they provide him with a seat and then there would have to be a by-election,” said attorney and Constitutional scholar Dr Lloyd Barnett.
If the party chooses the latter, the constituency selected would likely be a safe seat to ensure the PM’s place in parliament.
“That would be the logical choice. I mean, you want the leader of the party to be prime minister,” Barnett added.
This law is not unique to Commonwealth countries with a parliamentary system. In the United Kingdom, seat of the Commonwealth, there is a similar situation if the prime minister loses his/her place in the House of Commons but their party wins the general election.
No Jamaican prime minister has faced such a dilemma. Holness’ predecessors – Sir Alexander Bustamante, Sir Donald Sangster, Michael Manley, Edward Seaga, PJ Patterson and Portia Simpson Miller – cantered to victory in what were safe seats.
The JLP’s Hugh Shearer, who became prime minister in 1967 following the death of Sangster, was defeated by Michael Manley in the 1972 general election, the only time he ran as PM.
Holness first won West Central St Andrew in 1997 by the proverbial whisker (65 votes) against Dr Warren Blake. That win was secured after a contentious court battle. The prime minister pulled off easy wins over Roberts in the last two elections in 2011 and 2016.
Prior to Holness’ dominance, the West Central St Andrew constituency (first contested in 1959) was a PNP stronghold. The JLP’s Ferdinand Yap created an upset in the 1980 election by beating Carl Thompson.
