“Vaccination is the most important economic policy this year.” Ana Botin, group chairman of Santander, made this unequivocal statement at the recent Davos Agenda hosted by the World Economic Forum. This hit home. Vaccination in this novel coronavirus pandemic is not just about health, it’s also about economics.

It is understandable why the Jamaica Government never pursued “full lockdown” of the economy in the face of the pandemic. A country like Jamaica, with its complexities and extreme socio-economic inequalities, needs a pressure valve for release from time to time. Otherwise, the frustrations of the close to one million adults and children who survive day-to-day would be a ticking time bomb.

The challenge with this partial lockdown approach, though, is that you don’t get full control to eliminate the virus, as in the case of New Zealand, so you can reopen the economy fully. Instead, you get limping economic performance with a lot of hungry people. The fallout is seen most clearly in a haemorrhaging tourism sector and an annihilated entertainment sector, where workers of the latter struggle with absolutely no relief support and zero or little income for close to a year. But at least Jamaica avoids implosion.

80% Vaccination to Fully Reopen Economy

Experts estimate that herd immunity would require around 80-90 per cent of the population to have COVID-19 immunity, either through prior infection or vaccination. Jamaica’s health system could not withstand herd immunity by way of infection. We can all agree that the health system would be overwhelmed. Too many families would suffer the trauma of losing loved ones in an isolated, lonely way, and the economy would further contract significantly.

The only real path to the effective, full reopening of the economy and our society (yes, including all schools) is a comprehensive vaccination programme that achieves immunity in 80-90 per cent of the population. This would mean vaccinating, at minimum, 2.4 million Jamaicans. This may sound like a lot and impossible financially, but consider the facts against the alternative cost to the economy.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) projected that for FY 2020-21 the economy will contract between 10 and 12 per cent. That’s approximately US$1.5 billion lost from our economy. The PIOJ further projects that we will return to pre-COVID-19 gross domestic product (GDP) levels in three to four years (assuming we begin recovery in 2021). This is serious!

Serious times require serious decisions. Given what we face as a country, a target of 16 per cent vaccination does not take us where we need to go.

What’s the Cost?

The cost of vaccinating 2.4 million Jamaicans is only US$14.4 million, assuming we continue with the AstraZeneca option at US$3 per vaccine. Yes, there will be delivery and tax issues to consider, but the additional cost would not be significant.

Colleagues in Boston, USA, recently converted two stadiums to mass vaccination sites to administer up to 5,000 per day through a private-public partnership initiative. We have access to expertise, locally and internationally, that we can call on to make all the pieces come together. We just need to prioritise our spend in the right way. Imagine the power of coming together as a country to make this our 2021 goal.

Avoiding Vaccination Apartheid

We cannot go this route, however, as a lone island, given the global demand for vaccines and ability of rich countries to pay. The World Health Organization has warned about developing countries being left behind in the vaccination race, falling prey to what fellow young global leader Anjhula Singh Bais calls “vaccination apartheid”. We need strong, clear voices from the Caribbean to carry the message that a pandemic is only solved when we all get together and vaccinate in sufficient numbers.

Let us work, united with Caricom, to negotiate and purchase all that is needed for 80 per cent immunity in our region. It’s a big idea. But imagine how we can collectively enable the resurgence of tourism and the livelihoods of many.

We can mobilise resources and the will to get our act together. Let us give all our people the chance to get back on track to rebuilding our economies and countries.

— Imani Duncan-Price is a former senator, a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader, and Eisenhower Fellow. E-mail feedback to fullticipation@gmail.com