The consistently low positivity rate stacked up against the low vaccination rate makes a powerful argument that Jamaica has achieved, if not herd immunity, a significantly high rate of natural immunity against the novel coronavirus.

All of the markers used by the Government to determine its earlier moves against COVID-19 — mass infections, mass hospitalisations and multiple deaths daily — are no longer occurring which, arguably, constitutes more evidence of natural immunity.

The question that is impossible to avoid is, since roughly 75 per cent of the population is not vaccinated against the virus, why are we not seeing more infections, hospitalisations and deaths from COVID-19, as we saw at the onset of the pandemic in 2020?

The original estimate was that we would reach herd immunity threshold at 65 per cent vaccinated. This is now looking like an impossible target and we’d be lucky if we can get anywhere between 30 and 40 per cent vaccinated. In which case, the more urgent question is: What is the plan for moving the country forward out of this pandemic?

The Ministry of Health and Wellness has said that the formula used to count the extent of COVID-19 infections in Jamaica is that for every one who tested positive, there are likely to be six to eight times more positives in the untested population. What is the formula being used to determine natural immunity in the population?

It would help greatly if the ministry could establish even an approximate picture of what is happening in regards to natural immunity and thereby guide the country on the way forward in the continued fight against the pandemic.

This determination would assist in putting the Government in a position to decide whether to do away with mask mandates, or to allow spectators to freely attend public events; end restrictions on the numbers who can attend church, weddings and funerals and the like. In other words, return the country to full normality.

It is pretty obvious that the regional private sector and the Caribbean Community (Caricom) heads of Government, based on their utterings at the recent inter-sessional meeting in Belize, have turned their faces against COVID restrictions.

The conclusion seems to be that while restrictions, including lockdowns, were critical at the time when the virus was raging, and the world knew very little about how to handle it, we have since learned that actions causing our economies to crash and burn are no longer the answer. It’s too high a price to pay.

It seems clear to us that the health ministry’s obsession with vaccination has run out of gas. Moreover, the ministry appears to have run out of ideas and is still stuck in the old mode of early day strategies.

Jamaicans must be relied on to take their health into their own hands. We must have vaccines for people who are still waiting to take them but surely there is no further need to buy up loads of vaccines, that quickly expire any way. It might be better to allow people to get their vaccination from their doctors, as they would for almost any other medication.

The point we are making here is that the Ministry of Health and Wellness can best serve now by leading the way out of the pandemic, rather than concentrating all its efforts on fighting a losing battle.