Three weeks are in the books with 15 more of the 2022/2023 National Football League (NFL) regular season to go, and the history books are getting amended week after week.

Up to last weekend 18 games have been decided by three points or fewer – the most ever through the first three weeks of a season, breaking the previous high of 16 games in 2011, pointing to a shift in the distribution of power across the NFL.

The gap between the league’s contenders and pretenders is obviously narrowing and the turnaround of the Jacksonville Jaguars has played a significant role in this shift. Jacksonville had three wins last season and only one the season before so it would be fair if no one expected much from them this year, even with the talents of second-year quarterback (QB) Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars, however, have been playing way above expectation.

They did drop the first game of the season, 28-22, on the road against the Washington Commanders, but after being down 3-14 at half-time Jacksonville fought back and eventually led 22-14 in the fourth quarter only to finish second-best that evening. This, however, set the foundation for the next two games against the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, respectively.

In Week 2 the Jaguars blanketed the Colts 24-0, then went on to manhandle the Chargers in Week 3 with a 38-10 scoreline. The Jaguars have outscored opponents 84-38 so far this season, and the 46-point advantage is second only to the JustBet favourite Buffalo Bills (53). In the last two games alone, the Jaguars have outscored their opponents 62-10.

This Sunday afternoon Jacksonville’s head coach Doug Pederson will lead his overachieving Jaguars into Lincoln Financial Field, a place where he’ll forever be linked, to tackle the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Pederson played one year for the Eagles in his 10-year career and invested nine years as a coach, including leading Philadelphia to their first and only Super Bowl triumph in 2017. The Eagles are 3-0 to start the season for the first time since 2016, and Pederson is back for the first time as an opposing coach. Pederson is hoping for a warm welcome from the crowd, but the Eagles will not be looking to relinquish their undefeated status.

And speaking of undefeated, five teams entered Week 3 with a 2-0 record but only two emerged 3-0. On the flip side, six teams went in without a win, but only two remain winless – Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) and Houston Texans (0-2-1). The other team that left Week 3 without a blemish was the Miami Dolphins who finished 9-8 last season but are 12-1 in their last 13 games (up to last weekend) dating back to last season.

Two of the teams that lost their undefeated shine last weekend will meet on Sunday night in Raymond James Stadium, pitting QB Tom Brady against QB Patrick Mahomes in a highly anticipated matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs will clash for the first time since their coming together at Super Bowl LV in February 2021, where the Buccaneers dominated in a 31-9 win. Tampa Bay, bolstered by their defence, kept the first three games within reach, but with key targets Mike Evans (suspension), Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Julio Jones (knee) missing, they were bested 12-14 last Sunday by the Green Bay Packers for their first loss this season. The Chiefs impressed in their first two games, with Mahomes throwing for seven total touchdowns, but played a game against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday that was riddled with errors, resulting in a 17-20 loss and capped by the first Mahomes interception of the season. Therefore, both teams will be looking to rebound from ugly Week 3 losses.

Both QBs had similar numbers in their Week 3 defeats – Brady with 271 yards passing and one touchdown, Mahomes with 262 yards and a touchdown – but while the Kansas City offence has been churning (88 total points), the Tampa Bay offence has been slogging through mud (51 total points). Despite that, most games between Brady and Mahomes have been close – usually decided by two or three points – and there appears no reason for this one to be different.

For the Buccaneers, Jones and Godwin are fighting to get back into game shape, but Evans will certainly be back in action and will be Brady’s leading target. The Chiefs are healthy but have a questionable offensive line that is hit or miss at best but has done more than enough to justify them coming in as JustBet faviourites on Sunday. There have been five Brady-Mahomes meetings, with the veteran having the 3-2 win advantage following the Super Bowl victory. This should be worth more than the price of admission.

And with just over four months before Super Bowl LVII, it was announced this week that nine-time Grammy Award winner Rihanna will be the Super Bowl half-time show performer. The event is slated for February 12, 2023 at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona and who is going to get there is anybody’s guess.

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Super Bowl LVII Champion

Team Odds

Buffalo Bills5.40

Kansas City Chiefs8.40

Philadelphia Eagles9.80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers10.00

Green Bay Packers10.00

Los Angeles Rams13.00

Baltimore Ravens15.00

Miami Dolphins16.00

Los Angeles Chargers21.00

San Francisco 49ers22.00

*Only top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)

Note: Odds are subject to change