Like all previous years, the 2022/2023 National Football League (NFL) regular season has been gruelling and the only reprieve for the players from the weekly grind is the annual bye week that was implemented by the NFL 27 years ago to maximise each team’s rest and recovery.

Four teams take a break in Week 6 – the Detroit Lions (1-4), Houston Texans (1-3), Las Vegas Raiders (1-4), and Tennessee Titans (3-2) – and with most having a losing record, the interval will be more than welcome for them to regroup.

Sadly, coming out of Week 5, during which there were highlights and heartbreaks across the league, the leading storyline was the exuberance of referees in calling “roughing the passer penalties”. The exploits of quarterback (QB) Daniel Jones and his New York Giants in their 27-22 upset of the Green Bay Packers in London to improve to 4-1 (their best five-game start since they were 5-0 in 2009), rookie QB Bailey Zappe wowing the New England Patriots home fans in his first career start against a porous Detroit Lions defence (winning 29-0), and QB Cooper Rush leading the Dallas Cowboys to their fourth straight win after defeating the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams 22-10, all took a backseat to the controversy.

There were three such debatable instances over the weekend, starting with an Oscar-worthy flop by Cleveland Browns’ QB Jacoby Brissett when they were playing against the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday afternoon – Chargers won 30-28. Later, the hopes of the Atlanta Falcons were slammed shut when an apparent third-down sack of QB Tom Brady resulted in a personal foul being assessed, resulting in the drive being extended and a 21-15 win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Then, to close the week last Monday night, another controversial roughing the passer call negated an apparent strip sack of Las Vegas Raiders’ QB Derek Carr. Defensive tackle Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs drew the penalty for landing on Carr with most of his body weight even though Jones forced a fumble and recovered it on his way to the ground.

That trio of calls incited widespread outrage in NFL nation. Players, coaches, commentators, and analysts chimed in on the incidents and argued that the league had gone too far in its efforts to protect this extravagantly paid (and elite) group. However, two former NFL referees described the recent flurry of dubious roughing the passer penalties as “an anomaly” and cautioned against overreacting.

Checking the numbers, the argument from the referees appears to be substantiated. The perception after last weekend may be skewed because the incidents appear to have happened back to back to back, but the reality is that referees have assessed the penalty less this season than in previous years. Through five weeks of the 2022/2023 season, roughing the passer has been called 26 times, down from 51 last season, and from 38, 54, and 49, respectively, the seasons before that.

The NFL has sought to protect QBs from defenders pile-driving them into the ground, landing on them with all their body weight, or hitting them below the knees or in the head. It is debatable if the protection has gone too far or if the officials are overreacting – the discussions are ongoing.

Let’s look ahead at the marquee matchups for this weekend – the Kansas City Chiefs will welcome the Buffalo Bills into Arrowhead Stadium for a mouthwatering matchup of the American Football Conference (AFC) leaders, while the Philadelphia Eagles will put their unblemished record on the line, when the stout defence of the Dallas Cowboys come visiting Sunday night.

The Bills (4-1) versus Chiefs (4-1) matchup will unofficially be the game of the week – maybe the game of the year – as it promises to be a classic similar to the play-off game last January, which was won by Kansas City in overtime. The shoot-out between the young gunslingers Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen should be a treat for viewers as a lot of scoring is expected.

Allen put on a clinic last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers, racking up 348 passing yards and four touchdowns in the first half. It was the second-most pass yards in a first half since play-by-play data has been tracked in 1991, tying with the legendary Tom Brady (Week 16, 2020) – only Mahomes has more (359 yards in Week 12, 2020).

All things being equal, the Bills should have the slight edge in this one as their defence is tied for first in points allowed, second against the run and fourth against the pass. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have struggled against the pass, ranking 24th, and last week allowed Josh Jacobs to rack up 154 yards in their narrow 30-29 win over the Raiders. Whichever way this goes, it should not be missed.

The Cowboys (4-1) visit the Eagles (5-0) in a clash between the leaders of a surprising National Football Conference (NFC) East Division that includes the Giants (4-1). The Dallas defence against the Philadelphia offence will be matchup to watch on Sunday Night. The Cowboys dominated when they took their stellar defence to California last weekend, and they met a Rams team that appears to be stumbling along, but the Eagles boast a top-four offence and defence – they just beat the Arizona Cardinals in a nail-biter and are home as the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team.

Dallas has been playing lights out defensively this season, allowing just 14.4 points per game – their lowest average through the first five games of a season since 1994 when they finished 12-4 and won the NFC East – and rank third in scoring defence and seventh in yards allowed and passing yards allowed. However, Dallas has not fared well against the run, ranking 19th, and they will face a very mobile QB in Jalen Hurts, who recorded two rushing touchdowns last week.

The Eagles are 5-0 for the first time since 2004 when they were also the last undefeated team (7-0) and that start propelled them to a Super Bowl appearance. A matchup between the league’s fifth-ranked scoring offence and third-ranked scoring defence means the spectators are in for a thrill ride. The Dallas pass rush is fierce, but the Eagles have proven they can run the ball. This will be good, but Philadelphia at home is hard to go against. Are you ready for some football?

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Super Bowl LVII Champion

Team Odds

Buffalo Bills 4.40

Kansas City Chiefs 7.00

Philadelphia Eagles 7.60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers10.00

Green Bay Packers15.00

San Francisco 49ers15.00

Baltimore Ravens16.00

Los Angeles Chargers20.00

Dallas Cowboys21.00

Los Angeles Rams22.00

*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)

Note: Odds are subject to change