Many Jamaicans can look forward to receiving a bonus this Christmas amid combined optimism from business and consumers that economic conditions will continue to improve.

This follows the release of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) third quarter business and consumer confidence survey which found that just over half of the firms surveyed (53 per cent) intend to give staff bonuses this Christmas season.

Approximately 40 per cent plan to host Christmas parties as well, while 29 per cent will be giving gifts/tokens to their customers.

However, while firms have plans for their staff, approximately half of consumers say they have no plans for the season.

About one in every four consumers say they will only host a family dinner.

Nevertheless, the consumer confidence index has made an upward shift to 162.6 points in the third survey from 156 points.

This 4.2 per cent upward movement has resulted in the highest index recorded in over eight quarters or two years.

Similarly, the business confidence index recorded a significant increase over the third quarter of 2022 moving from 124.6 points to 147.4 points, a change of +18.3 per cent.

This is the highest index recorded since the second quarter of 2019 when an index of 150.7 points was recorded.

At the same time, there are mixed emotions about the current economic conditions. For consumers the index of current economic conditions is slightly down by 1.9 per cent from 195 points to 191 points in the third quarter. Consumers’ perspective of current job conditions is the main driver of this change. The proportion of consumers who believe that jobs are plentiful has moved from approximately 13 per cent to 9 per cent.

On the other hand, firms’ report an increase in optimism about current business resulting in a change in the index from 143.9 points in the second quarter to 170.0 points in the third quarter of 2022.

This represents a change of approximately +18.0 per cent over last quarter and a +36.3 per cent increase over the third quarter of 2021.

Thoughts about the climate for investment/expansion as well as the performance in the firms’ profitability are the components of this index. The proportion of firms that are convinced it is a good time to invest has increased by 5.6 per cent; however, the proportion that reported profits being better than expected decreased by 4.8 per cent.

Still, both businesses and consumers expect economic conditions to improve. Consumers are optimistic about future business conditions and their future earnings particularly relating to future jobs while firms expressed strong confidence in the strategies being implemented within their organisations and demand for their products/services.

Notably, optimism about the economy is driven mainly by expectations for an increase in tourism and a resultant increase in other sectors. Additionally, over 30 per cent of firms say they are just being optimistic without any specific reason for doing so.

On the matter of current and expected jobs, there is a slight downward movement in current jobs in the third quarter by 5.2 per cent from 61 points to 58 points. But, consumers remain hopeful about the future of jobs with an increase of 6.3 per cent recorded for this index from 104 points to 111 points.

Approximately half (51 per cent) of consumers shared the view that jobs are currently in short supply but 35 per cent expect jobs to improve over the next 12 months.

There are however 40 per cent who expect no change in the job situation.

With that said, expectations for income gains are slightly up in the third-quarter survey by 4.2 per cent — the highest in over nine quarters. This is consistent with consumers’ perception of the future of businesses and jobs.