More than 86 per cent of global CEOs anticipate a recession to hit over the next 12 months, with 58 per cent expecting it to be mild and short, according to KPMG’s recent CEO outlook report. The report asked more than 1,300 CEOs at some of the world’s largest businesses about their strategies and outlook.

Of the 86 per cent of global CEOs expecting a recession to hit, 71 per cent predict that it will impact company earnings by up to 10 per cent. The report also revealed that while a strong majority of senior executives believe that a recession will disrupt anticipated growth (73 per cent), only three-quarters (76 per cent) have already taken precautionary steps ahead of a looming recession.

“Companies in the Caribbean are not immune to the issues that face the rest of the world and the report findings run parallel with the realities of many CEOs in the Caribbean. With several senior executives identifying that a recession is among the most urgent priorities today, businesses in the region must start taking preparatory steps to ensure minimal impact, if they haven’t already done so. This is especially critical since the economies across the region are just beginning to bounce back from the brutal effects of the pandemic that forced many businesses to reduce employees and freeze hiring just to stay afloat,” said R Tarun Handa, senior partner, KPMG in Caricom.

“In addition to a recession, the report also highlights that digital transformation and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) are top priorities for global CEOs, two areas in which the Caribbean region has been playing catch up with the rest of the world,” he added

On the matter of recession, the report revealed that senior executives, despite being concerned, also feel marginally more confident about the resilience of the economy over the next six months (73 per cent) than they did in February (60 per cent), when KPMG surveyed 500 CEOs for its CEO Outlook Pulse survey.

Further, 71 per cent of leaders are confident about the global economy’s growth prospects over the next three years (up from 60 per cent in early 2022) and nearly nine in 10 (85 per cent) are confident about their organisations’ growth over the next three years.

Bill Thomas, global chairman & CEO, KPMG, said, “Once-in-a-generation issues — a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and financial difficulties — have come in short succession and taken a toll on the optimism of global CEOs. While it’s unsurprising the economic climate is now a top concern for business leaders, it’s encouraging to see reasonable levels of confidence among executives in their own companies and their longer-term prospects for growth.”