WHILE the recent Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) third-quarter business and consumer confidence survey reported a two-year high in consumer confidence, a Jamaica Observer discussion with some consumers in the first week of November indicates that budgets are bent out of shape, and there is no widespread expectation of increased spending for the end-of- year holidays among them.

The JCC survey, released in October 2022, said the consumer confidence index had shifted upward 162.6 points in the third survey from 156 points, the highest index recorded in over eight quarters or two years.

But, for the most part, consumers who spoke to the Business Observer are not in agreement with the conclusion of improved expectations, mostly due to the impact of inflation on family budgeting and spending.

Michieka Taylor, micro-entrepreneur, shared, “Christmas is a time to celebrate the birth of Christ and gather as a family. As a family we will gather to have a family dinner, however with the high food prices we may have to adjust the meal options that we will have on the menu.”

Veronica Grant, a 55-year-old early childhood teacher, said about the upcoming celebratory season, “I am not very confident at all. Inflation is so high [that] I can’t afford to buy the very basic necessities or even maintain a healthy diet. Utility [costs] are sky-high. Most of what is earned goes into paying bills. There is not much left to do anything. It’s just the grace of God keeping us.”

Another woman, a 52-year-old health worker at the University Hospital of the West Indies, responded: “I can’t buy anything because of inflation. Still, I am thanking God for life. I don’t see a big Christmas. Personally, I will spend the time resting for the couple days.”

Yet another commented: “Well after two years of the [novel coronavirus] pandemic, times are more relaxed now, however Jamaican consumers are being faced with constant price increases. I will spend my holidays quietly and with low spending, as usual.”

Single parent

A 42-year-old graphic artist and single father shared: “I see very low consumer confidence but I will still try my best to enjoy. My problem is too much debt.”

He also said, “Inflation has affected me terribly. I think I’m getting only 70 per cent of what I used to for the same amount of money, or paying 135 per cent more to buy the same stuff I would a year ago.”

Another man, a father of three whose third child was born midyear, shared, “I’m not confident at all. I’m not into the traditional Christmas vibe in terms of gifts and related appendages, but I definitely live to spend time with my immediate and extended family…

“Spending time usually involves a bit of money spending, and with the challenges I have been facing for the last five to six months I don’t see any possible way I can fund or support any family gathering.”

The father said he is seeking a weekend job to boost family income. A government employee, he stated, “It’s just the grace of God helping to keep us.”

He said that personally he would be seeking ways to earn extra…. “get a weekend part-time job or see if I can ‘take my hand turn fashion’ — sew some things, bags, hats etc and see if I can get some sales.”

Can’t afford a house

Another government worker, a male, said consumer confidence was low because many things desired are out of reach. He asked the Business Observer, “Why waste time getting a degree and an apartment in Kingston for $25 million?

“Look at the NHT that makes compulsory deductions from your pay but just recently constructed an overbudget, overpriced apartment complex on Ruthven.”

He pointed out that crime was another reason why some might be choosing to avoid flamboyance for the season.

“People who don’t work all year make an extra effort to rob, steal and then kill the people who work all year.”

He also noted that while inflation was affecting many, there were “regular people” who have “suffered from low salaries for years” and for whom Christmas celebrations did not even register on their radar.

Yet another problem which is uniquely Jamaican, he said, is that individuals who have no college or university degree are paid at rates less than fast food workers in the United States, despite their skills and talents.

“No wonder young Jamaicans of all levels try to go abroad,” he concluded in his final comment on consumer confidence.

The Jamaica Observer also spoke to an English teacher who said, “I’m confident I will have a happy Christmas because I have life. However, in terms of buying power…I don’t plan on buying anything except food and only what I need. I think the years of big ‘nyammings’ are behind us…food prices are too high so I will just buy what I need if I’m going to be cooking at home.”

Business owner Dana Baugh rounded out the conversation with her observation of clients’ behaviour and sentiments on holiday prospects.

“People will be more frugal but we will try meaningful ways to satisfy our customers. They may not have as much buying power and spending power but we are trying to make the best use of it, regardless

“Christmas 2022 will be better than expected but not as good as previous years. People will be stretching the dollar more. Of course there are people who it will not affect because they are earning more.”

Baugh said that personally, her ability to produce goods for the season was affected by a growing lack of skilled labour and people with good work ethic. “That is a constant challenge,” she said.