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Will China’s next premier be a moderating influence on Xi?
Politburo Standing Committee member Li Qiang attends a session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Tuesday, March 7, 2023. The pro-business track record of the man poised to become China's top economic official on Saturday will make Li Qiang's term a test of whether he might moderate President Xi Jinping's tendency to intervene. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Latest News
March 9, 2023

Will China’s next premier be a moderating influence on Xi?

HONG KONG (AP) — The pro-business track record of the man poised to become China’s top economic official will make his term a test of whether he might moderate President Xi Jinping ’s tendency to intervene.

Li Qiang, 63, who is expected to be chosen China’s premier on Saturday, will have to grapple with a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, which is dealing with emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, weak global demand for exports, lingering U.S. tariff hikes, a shrinking workforce and an ageing population.

Xi, who has bolstered the state sector, has said that he wants the ruling party to return to its “original mission” as China’s economic, social and cultural leader. That has been accompanied by tighter control over some industries, more aggressive censorship of TV and pop culture and the spread of a “social credit” system that penalises the public for offences ranging from fraud to littering. Xi took China’s most powerful role in 2012.

Now, observers are watching whether Li can roll out pragmatic policies during his five-year term. But the process of political decision-making in China is opaque, making analysing the country’s direction a difficult matter for outsiders.

Expectations are based on Li’s performance as the party chief of the country’s largest city — Shanghai — and as the governor of neighbouring Zhejiang province, a hub of small and mid-sized business. And, perhaps more importantly, his close ties with Xi.

Li was quoted as saying in a 2013 interview with respected business magazine Caixin that officials should ”put the government’s hands back in place, put away the restless hands, retract the overstretched hands.”

Li hailed Zhejiang’s businessmen as the most valuable resource in the province, pointing to e-commerce billionaire Jack Ma, and he highlighted his government’s cutting red tape.

In contrast, Li has also strictly enforced some state controls, including rules meant to prevent the spread of COVID-19. When his local rule has been out of tune with national policies set by the president and his team, he has eventually fallen into step, seen as key to his rise.

Under President Xi, entrepreneurs have been rattled not just by tighter political controls and anti-COVID curbs but more control over e-commerce and other tech companies. Anti-monopoly and data security crackdowns have wiped billions of dollars off companies’ stock-market value. Beijing is also pressing them to pay for social programs and official initiatives to develop processor chips and other technology.

A native of Zhejiang, Li studied agricultural mechanisation and worked his way up the provincial party ranks. In 2003, he started an executive MBA program at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, common among ambitious party cadres.

Priscilla Lau, a former professor of the university and former Hong Kong delegate to China’s legislature, said Li attended her class on Hong Kong’s free-market economy for a chamber in the city and said he recalled her class when they met in Shanghai more than a decade later.

“It shows he’s very diligent,” Lau said.

Li’s working relationship with Xi began in the 2000s when the latter was appointed party chief in Zhejiang. Following Xi’s eventual move to Beijing and appointment as party general secretary, Li was promoted to Zhejiang governor in 2013, the No. 2 role in the provincial government.

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