The continual and/or continuous inhalation of political poll results is a most dangerous fixation for the leader and/or leaders of a political party.

Recall that, in late June this year, a People’s National Party (PNP)-commissioned poll done by noted pollster Don Anderson showed the PNP leading the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) by nearly five percentage points. This bit of good news put Norman Manley’s party in a state of great excitement. Understandably so.

The PNP was putting its nose out front for the first time in years. Exhilaration seems, however, to have graduated into a full blown state of excitable frivolity. Political giddiness on steroids at 89 Old Hope Road following the release of the mentioned poll has further exposed the rickety foundation upon which the PNP’s bid to retake Jamaica House is built. Indeed, I think that anyone with a modicum of political sense would have noticed that the PNP seems to have descended into a wider vortex of self-immolation since the Anderson poll findings.

Whirling out of control

All well-thinking Jamaicans should be concerned. Why? Like it or not, the PNP is our official Opposition. The Opposition is rooted in the constitution. I have said it here on several occasions that I believe the country needs a strong Opposition. Whether the PNP stays on the Opposition benches for another five, 10 or 15 years, as some have predicted, is immaterial.

The robustness of our democracy is the most pertinent consideration here, as I see it. All well-thinking Jamaicans should be very concerned at the very clear evidence that the Opposition is whirling out of control.

Objective evidence shows that the descent of the Opposition PNP has seemingly accelerated since the recent Anderson poll findings. Those who carefully watch the swirling of the political tea leaves would have, however, noticed very dark clouds hovering over 89 Old Hope Road from the defeat in February 2016.

Recall the rather scandalous manner in which former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller was dislodged from atop the perch of the PNP?

Recall the bitter leadership battle for the reins of the PNP, between Dr Peter Phillips and Peter Bunting? The PNP is today still suffering with the political wounds of that nasty conflict. The OnePNP and RiseUnited factionalism is still a heavy burden on the PNP. Indeed, the birds chirp that there are many Comrades who, to date, do not speak to each other because of the dastardly utterances and actions which were aplenty during the bloodletting to replace Portia Simpson Miller.

Recall, too, that after the pommelling of the PNP in September 2020, Dr Peter Phillips quickly flew from atop the PNP’s perch. That vacuum resulted in another brutal fight between Mark Golding and Lisa Hanna. Those bruising battles since 2016 have left serious lacerations, according to higher-ups in the PNP, who have been quoted as anonymous sources in credible media.

Mark Golding, with his vast legal and business background, was expected to be the adhesive to unite the PNP. Many are disappointed.

Undeniable pattern

Why are they disappointed? “Golding and some close to him seem to have gone off the rails, since the Anderson poll,” said a caller to a radio programme last week. The caller is onto something. But, again, those who watch the political happenings a little closer than most would have seen this oncoming train in the PNP, long ago.

Recall this? “Speaking at the same meeting, Opposition Leader Mark Golding told residents that, under the law, they have a right to the property that they now occupy. He said the People’s National Party respects the laws of the country and the rights of property owners.

” ‘Many of you are property owners in your own rights. You may not have a legal title yet, but you have been living on the property and you have invested in your property far beyond the 12 years prescribed by law,’ Golding noted.” (The Gleaner, April 23, 2022)

In my The Agenda column of May 1, 2022 I asked: “Would Golding have similar prescriptions if he owned the property? Golding is a lawyer and investment banker. He doubtless knows that the court has ruled for the residents to vacate the property. The owners of the lands in Little Bay, Brighton, and Salmon Point have been toiling for years, hoping to get possession. They have failed.

For context, recall The Gleaner of April 13, 2022 also delivered these details: “The battle for the property has been raging for decades and saw one of the proprietors — John Eugster — being murdered in 2004 after trying to reclaim the lands.

“The tussle continued with Eugster’s widow, Kathleen, a United States citizen, for control of sections of the 867-acre property.

“Notwithstanding a 2011 court decision granting writs of possession and the eviction of at least 27 settlers, Eugster has been unable to regain possession, which is reportedly earmarked for a US$5-billion investment.” (The Gleaner, April 23, 2022)

In my column of May 1, 2022, I also noted, among other things: “Golding needs to understand, however, that there is nothing radical and/or remotely revolutionary in his alarming comments regarding the highly flammable situation at Little Bay, Brighton, and Salmon Point. I think Golding’s performance in this land matter only succeeds in further branding him as a political misleader who is out of touch with today’s Jamaica. Golding, it seems, is rapidly regressing into a period which well-thinking Jamaicans have long ago abandoned. It is possible to be modern and radical at the same time, Golding. Stoking fear is not it.”

This incident took place over a year ago. To date the PNP and Golding have not presented any new and or better ideas on how to solve the long-standing problems of housing shortage and squatting.

Golding is on record as saying he does not support squatting. Recall at his installation, and in subsequent remarks, Golding has spoken glowingly about helping to create a Jamaica in which inequalities are halted. Recall, too, this banner headline, ‘River clash — No relocation of flood-hit Weise Road residents — Golding’ (The Gleaner, November 13, 2020) that seems diametrically opposite to Golding’s pronouncements in Parliament.

According to Golding: “There’s no need to relocate the residents. They don’t want to be relocated. Just clean the gully and maintain the gully edge; that’s all that needs to happen.”

The news item also noted, among other things: “Describing the homes on Weise Road as ‘well-established’, Golding criticised the prime minister’s address in Parliament on Tuesday about informal settlements.”

Well-thinking Jamaicans know that Golding’s recommendations are tantamount to being penny wise and pound foolish.

Well-thinking folks know that his approach, if we can call it that, has proven severely costly, especially in terms of precious human lives lost over many years. But, some, because of political expediency, close their eyes to these harsh realities.

It is wise to heed the words of real experts: “Most of the area, he said, is unstable due to several geological forces.” The ‘he’ being quoted by The Gleaner on November 22, 2020 was Professor Simon Mitchell, a sedimentary geologist and head of The Earthquake Unit at The University of the West Indies.

Recall Professor Mitchell also said: “You are dealing with relatively unstable banks of these river systems. These river systems can migrate, and if they move they will take whatever they go through. This is one of the reasons why you have to think about training the rivers properly to try and prevent their migration.”

I could cite other instances in which Golding’s embrace of an unusable past served as a harbinger of recent scary utterances from him and those close to him. Unlike some, I am not surprised at the PNP’s scandalous pronouncements.

Golding’s “tapanaris” declaration, utterances which seem to suggest support for a resurrection of electoral fraud and attacks on the director of public prosecution (DPP), Paula Llewellyn, are consistent with his platform from the get-go.

Repugnant statements by Isat Buchanan who until recently was the PNP’s Human Rights Commission chairman and Dayton Campbell, the PNP’s general secretary, are ‘follow di leader’ conditioning.

Poll inebriation and vacuum

“Being in Opposition with a poll lead is like carrying a very valuable Ming vase across a slippery marble floor,” said Roy Jenkins, British politician.

I agree.

Just over four months ago I wrote, among other things, here: “Ruling parties gain in the run-up to general elections. The PNP has to maintain its current momentum for two and half years. That is nigh impossible for an Opposition party, unless the Administration has a death wish. I think the PNP has peaked far too early. Given these and other factors which I have previously discussed here I am forecasting a third term for the JLP.” (Jamaica Observer, April 9, 2023)

The PNP has been busy inhaling the poll findings which it commissioned. It is now drunk on the very fumes. So drunk that it has forgot that a poll is a snapshot in time. So drunk that it has forgot, too, that practical policies and programmes are critical to taking parties across the winning line.

Over a year ago I began asking in this space for the PNP to make public their new and or better ideas to grow the economy faster; further reduce or eliminate the long-standing problems in education, agriculture, housing, health, and crime in particular murders. They are yet to do so.

I noted here recently that two media houses had started to ask similar questions. I am happy for this. Recently, I heard Metry Seaga, president of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ), say on radio that the paucity of ideas was one of the reasons for the nosedive in the political discourse.

I think Seaga gets it. I am glad he does. I hope others in similar organisations and civil society are getting it too.

After 61 years of Independence our politics cannot be predicated on razzle dazzle, fake news, jumping and prancing on stage to the latest hit tunes, loud shouts into microphones which already amplify the human voice, supporters hanging off buses in contravention of traffic laws, and slanderous utterances which resurrect more heat than light. I accept that campaigns are not Sunday school classes, but they must deliver more than just noise.

Understand di noises

On the subject of noises, in additional to being drunk from inhalation of the poll findings, there is another reason that the PNP has massively increased its noises in recent months. Think completion of major projects by the Andrew Holness-led Administration.

Several major projects including the St Thomas Road Improvement Project will soon be finished. Many are far advanced and several have been placed in the oven. More than likely these will be ready before the end of 2024, or certainly by early 2025.

The PNP knows it cannot campaign on the platform of poor economic management. Massive devaluation is a thing of the past. Employment is at the highest since Independence. There is no shortage of foreign exchange.

Pertaining to our net international reserves (NIR), there was a US$90 million increase in July. At the end of July the reserves stood at US$3.75 billion. Inflation was low at 6.3 per cent at the end of June 2023, and the rave reviews local and international about the Holness Administration’s sound management of the economy continue. Crime is trending down. Murders fell by almost 12 per cent between January and July this year. A report by the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF), last week, showed a reduction in serious crimes including rape, shooting and robberies.

A report in The Gleaner on July 20, 2023 had this banner headline: ‘54.7% increase in export earnings for January to March’.

The evidence is clear the Holness Administration is achieving many real positives. The beneficiaries are not duppies at the May Pen Cemetery — contrary to what some would have the country believe.

In this largely positive economic context for the incumbent, an Opposition has to find things to fuel its campaign machine. Diversionary noises are those things.