IMF experts say climate shocks linked to cross-border migration in LAC
WASHINGTON (CMC) – Two International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts say that climate shocks are linked to cross-border migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), driving more people to leave their home countries and amplifying the negative impact on the region’s economies.
Paula Beltran, an economist, and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, assistant to the IMF director in the Western Hemisphere Department, said in a joint statement that cross-border migration and climate shocks have been shaping the economies of LAC for many decades.
“Globally, LAC is one of the regions with the largest migrant populations—measured as a share of the population of the country of origin. This region is also among those most susceptible to climate events, including hurricanes, storms, floods and droughts.”
Beltran and Hadzi-Vaskov said this climate-migration nexus is “especially critical” for the region’s two sub-groups of smaller economies: the Caribbean and Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR).
Their analysis sheds light on different drivers of cross-border migration, the importance of climate shocks, and the impact of climate-induced migration on the economies in the region.
Beltran and Hadzi-Vaskov said migration occurs due to many factors, including differences in pay between jobs in home countries and foreign countries, migration policy and social safety nets.
Using a novel methodology, their analysis of climate and cross-border migration helps explain outward migration patterns over the past few decades.
They said climate disasters “significantly impact” total migration through conditions in countries of origin.
In fact, they said three additional climate disasters annually, over five years, can be associated with about a 1 per cent increase in people leaving their home countries in the Caribbean and CAPDR.
They said while climate shocks affect the economy through many channels – including damage to physical infrastructure, lower agricultural crop yields and poorer workers’ health and productivity – human displacement is “a critical transmission channel.”