It is often said that a National Basketball Association (NBA) play-off series really begins when both teams get to play on their own home court. Therefore, if the opening two games are won by the higher-seeded team, the possible outcome of the series is still considered to be in the balance. However, if the lower-seeded team happens to wrest one of those first two games from the grasp of their opponents, the series takes on a completely different complexion.

The first 12 games of the 2023/24 NBA play-offs saw the top half of the seeding in both conferences exert their dominance and defend their home court. In contrast, the last four games of the opening round saw the visiting lower seeds stepping up, winning three of the four matchups, and taking home court advantage into Game 3.

Firstly, the Indiana Pacers evened up their first-round NBA play-off series against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night, winning 125-108. It wasn’t quite the revenge for Game 1 where Milwaukee ran its lead to 30 points before settling for a 15-point win, it was enough to enter Game 3 this afternoon with confidence to spare.

It does help Indiana’s cause to have Milwaukee’s big man Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined so far in the series, but they still have to contend with Damian Lillard who had 35 points in the first game and 34 on Tuesday night. The Pacers were the first road team to win in this year’s play-offs — their first post-season win in almost six years — and Pascal Siakam led the way with a play-off career-high 37 points, along with 11 rebounds and six assists. Myles Turner chipped in with a career play-off high 22 points, plus seven rebounds and six assists.

Also, in double figures for the Pacers on Tuesday were Andrew Nembhard (20 points), Aaron Nesmith (11 points, seven assists) and Tyrese Haliburton (12 points, 12 assists), and they will need a repeat performance to take the lead in the series. The Bucks are uncertain about the availability of Giannis this evening, but the Pacers are 4-1 against these opponents in the regular season and should feel good about their chances, Giannis or not. This is a close one to call but momentum is with Indiana, and they got back to around their regular-season average of 123.3 points per game on Tuesday, they should prevail.

Late Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Clippers celebrated the return of Kawhi Leonard with a 93-96 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Leonard had 15 points and seven rebounds in 35 minutes in his first game since March 31, but missed all five of his three-point attempts as the Clippers fell short. Luka Doncic had 32 points, nine assists and six rebounds for the Mavericks, while Kyrie Irving contributed 23 points to equal the series and set up a crucial clash in Dallas tonight.

The Clippers enjoyed a 73-67 lead with 9:32 remaining on Tuesday, but that was short-lived as the Mavericks scored 14 straight points and took a 73-81 lead, a lead they would not relinquish. A similar story to Game 1, but the Clippers had established such a large lead that even with their late-game collapse, the mountain was too high for Dallas to climb.

The game this evening should see a reversal of roles and the Mavericks should pile on the points early, while the Clippers will see how best they can keep up. The Clippers took the regular season series 2-1 (winning the last two), but those games were played in November and December 2023, when the Clippers were making waves.

The Clippers appear to have lost a step or two to close out the regular season and will need to dig deep if they hope to get the better of the NBA’s leading scorer (Doncic) on his home court tonight. The better bet would be on the Mavericks, fuelled by the raunchy Dallas fans, but Leonard should find healthier footing and improve on his Game 2 performance. A very good game is expected.

Last, but by no means least, was the shocking 111-101 Game 2 victory for the Miami Heat over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. With memories of the Cinderella play-off run they had last season, all the way to the NBA Finals, the 14-point underdogs showed scant regard for the only team to register 60-wins this season, and for their 37-4 regular season home record (not including the Game 1 victory).

Jaylen Brown scored 33 points and Jayson Tatum added 28 for the top-seeded Celtics, but their opponents were on fire, hitting a franchise play-off-record 23 3-pointers, bettering the record of 20 that was set against the Bucks in 2021. Playing their third-straight game without Jimmy Butler, who was injured in the opening Play-In game, Miami was over 50 per cent from 3-point range in each of the first three quarters, and a still had enough in the tank for 4-of-10 in the fourth.

Tyler Herro had 24 points, 14 assists and hit six of Miami’s franchise play-off-record three-pointers. Bam Adebayo contributed 21 points and 10 rebounds and Caleb Martin added 21 points, including five three-pointers, in an unprecedented performance to even the series as it moves to Miami on Sunday evening. The Celtics won 64 games in the regular season to claim home-court advantage through the NBA Finals, but in the bosom of their fired-up fans, they lost the grip on the series on Wednesday night and will now have to regain control in the heat of Miami.

This is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, where Miami stunned Boston to get to the Finals, but this is a whole different season. These teams have met five times this season — including the two play-off games — and Miami has only this win in their belts. Tatum had his first career play-off triple-double last Sunday in Game 1, and another triple-double should be in the making if the Celtics expect to make a statement. It’s hard to see Miami pulling off a second game like they had on Wednesday and the expectation is for Boston to regain the lead with an emphatic win.

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NBA 2023/24 Champion

Team Odds

Boston Celtics 2.32

Denver Nuggets 3.30

Oklahoma City Thunder 13.00

New York Knicks 16.00

Dallas Mavericks 17.00

Minnesota Timberwolves 17.00

Milwaukee Bucks 23.00

Los Angeles Clippers 24.00

Cleveland Cavaliers 45.00

Philadelphia 76ers 50.00

*Only top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)

Note: Odds are subject to change.