Tourism growth forecast puts doubts — and the cynics — to rest
Jamaica has come a long way from the days when ignorance guided commentary, often very critical, of the tourism sector. There still exist, of course, some individuals who question the industry’s contribution to Jamaica. When that question arises it shouldn’t be dismissed simply.
The most suitable response, we believe, is to address doubts with credible data that should help to provide those individuals with a better understanding and appreciation of tourism’s impact on the country.
We recall the slump into which tourism, and other sectors, fell when Jamaica started feeling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At the time, tourism was projected to lose heavily as our visitor arrival numbers nosedived disastrously that year.
Approximately 150,000 workers were furloughed as most hotels and attractions were forced to close. The multiplier effect of that loss of income was staggering, to say the least.
We all know the story of the tremendous effort by the Government and players in the industry to get tourism back up and running after the lifting of COVID restrictions. It was a highly commendable achievement which should never be forgotten.
Fast-forward to now and we see where our tourism authorities, led by the minister, Mr Edmund Bartlett, are fully focused on Jamaica earning US$5 billion from five million tourist arrivals over a targeted five-year period ending 2025.
Mr Bartlett had reported that within the first year of Jamaica reopening its borders, we welcomed one million visitors and earned just over US$1 billion. That growth continued and in 2023 we broke the four-million barrier with 4.1 million visitors.
The impressive pace of that recovery is in keeping with the experience of the industry globally. The most recent data published by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) show that last year, travel and tourism’s contribution to global gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 22 per cent. This, the WTTC says, means the sector is now worth US$7.7 trillion globally.
“This is still 23 per cent behind the 2019 peak, but a remarkable recovery, given the challenges of inflation, staff shortages, and ongoing COVID-19 restrictions,” the WTTC said in its latest report on the economic impact of global tourism.
Despite the challenges, which include the climate crisis, the WTTC forecast “another year of strong performance” with the sector’s value growing to US$9.5 trillion
— five per cent behind the 2019 peak.
Most encouraging is the WTTC’s forecast that 24 million new jobs will be created, bringing the sector’s total to 320 million jobs globally, while international spending should grow by 23 per cent, reaching US$1.36 trillion.
We have no reason to doubt that Jamaica‘s tourism authorities will ensure that we capture our piece of that global pie, and thus significantly add to the 175,000 and 354,000 Jamaicans who now benefit directly and indirectly from the sector, respectively.
We share the WTTC’s caution, though, that strong efforts are needed to increase capacity and connectivity, while governments and the private sector must take sustainability seriously and that “decarbonising and protecting biodiversity must be at the top of any boardroom agenda”.