Dear Editor,

Those who have studied statistics will be familiar with the term ‘regression to the mean’, which basically means that if a variable is extreme the first time you measure it, it will be closer to the average the next time you measure it. In technical terms, it describes how a random variable that is outside the norm eventually tends to return to the norm, this according to statisticshowto.com.

The West Indies Test team returned to the norm during the first game of their 2024 series against England. After the high of their eight-run victory in Brisbane in January, the Caribbean side was brought back to Earth by England during the first Test of the current tour. The hosts won at Lord’s by an innings and 114 runs against a visiting side that never really offered any serious threat.

The surprise victory over Australia understandably lifted the expectations of Caribbean cricket fans. But even a cursory analysis of the merits of the West Indies team would show that the odds of them consistently challenging top teams like Australia, England, and India are slender. The Brisbane win was a fluke, brought about by an almost superhuman effort from a fast bowler few fans had heard of who took seven wickets for 68 runs in the second innings. That kind of performance won’t happen every day, or all that often. The victory in Australia was outside what was likely. The defeat at Lord’s was more in line with recent West Indies performances.

Michael Lewis, author of the famed book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, also wrote The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. It is loosely about the friendship and work of two Israeli psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Lewis recollects a story of Kahneman working with Israeli Air Force flight instructors. The instructors became convinced, based on anecdotal evidence, that trainee pilots responded better to criticism than praise.

Praised after doing particularly well, the trainees seemed to respond by not doing as well next time round. And criticised for performing particularly poorly in one drill, they responded by doing better in the following drill. Kahneman had to explain to the instructor what was really happening: “The pilot who was praised because he had flown exceptionally well, like the pilot who was chastised after he had flown exceptionally badly, simply were regressing to the mean. They’d have tended to perform better (or worse) even if the teacher had said nothing at all.”

There is randomness in sport. That’s one reason we watch. On any given day, for instance, the team at the bottom of the English Premier League can spring a surprise and defeat the team at the top. Almost inevitably, however, the bottom-of-the-table team that achieves an outstanding result one game is likely to be trashed by the top team the next time they play. Their performances would have then matched their relative capabilities. They would have regressed towards the mean.

That is what happened to the West Indies team. Staffed mostly by newcomers to Test cricket and, in some cases, first-class cricket, it was too much to expect high-level performances from this side over long periods. Additionally, England, with its seaming tracks and high-quality pacers, is a difficult place for young batters to succeed. The West Indies’ batting unit weren’t particularly reckless; they tried hard to survive, and relatively inexperienced batters like Mikyle Louis, Alick Athanaze, and Kavem Hodge looked briefly competent. But Test cricket is a hard game that delivers a demanding examination of technique and endurance; it requires keeping the opposition out for hours at a time. As hard as they tried and as good as some of them looked, they could only manage 121 runs in the first innings and 131 in the second — highly inadequate at this level.

Spirits were lifted after Australia. Caribbean fans began envisioning a new, more competent, more compelling team than the one they had experienced in recent years. All-rounder Jason Holder, who was absent from the Australian tour, spoke about being inspired and about experiencing “renewed energy” from the Brisbane win. “The guys took a lot from that Test victory in Australia,” Holder said, prior to the first Test. “We’ve been doing some really positive things over the last couple of months. And I think as a young side the main thing is just to keep learning. What we have in the dressing room is some special talent, no doubt about it. It’s just a matter for us just to play some solid cricket and they’ll have just to believe. It’s time for someone to break the shackles, and there’s no better time for us to come here and beat England.”

This feeling of buoyancy occurs every time there is a good result. Fans and players suddenly sense that there is a renewal afoot; that their struggling team would leave old habits behind and start competing with the big guys once again. It always ends in disappointment, however, because the good performance has little to do with the team getting better. The explanation is simple and scientific: the team experienced a regression to the mean.

Still, with two games to go, it is early in the series, and so the West Indies have time and opportunity to show improvement. Chances of them upsetting England, however, are very slim and my guess is that they will not be able to match the competence of their hosts.

What the West Indies need to strive for is consistency. The unexpected victories against the odds are always welcome. But they are not real indications of growth or improvement. Brief sparks of light are never enough to overcome prolonged periods of darkness. They need be nurtured and fashioned into a lingering flame.

Garfield Robinson is a Jamaican living in the US who writes on cricket for a few Indian and English publications. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or garfield.v.robinson@gmail.com.