The Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will win the upcoming general election, our 19th since universal adult suffrage in 1944, except there is a calamitous scandal in the JLP and/or catastrophic natural disaster which doesn’t allow the JLP enough time to recover and/or rebuild.

Why? The governing JLP, among other things, has been caught trying.

Bill Clinton former two-term president of the United States of America often said: “The American people don’t always need you to succeed, but they want to catch you trying.”

I believe the same is true of the Jamaican people.

The governing JLP has been caught trying to solve Jamaica’s long-standing problems of high crime, in particular murders; crippling unemployment; debilitating inflation; choking debt; rickety physical infrastructure, in particular bad roads; national underachievement in education; decaying social infrastructure; few and far between investments in critical public amenities like housing, water, public transportation, national security infrastructure, frail protection of the vulnerable; and feeble investments in compassionate and human rights safeguards, etc.

‘DEM AH TRY’

During the last 6½ months I resumed my weekend road trips in and around the country. Regular readers will recall that I have been doing these road tours since 2014. Some readers will also recall that in October 2015 I wrote here that the People’s National Party (PNP) would have been defeated in our 17th general election. My forecast in 2015 was not based on prophetic abilities. I have none. I am not a pollster either. My forecast was based on credible poll findings which someone generously made available to me, personal immersions into marginal constituencies, and other credible sources of information. At the time when I made the mentioned forecast many readers told me that I was crazy. More than one scientific poll at the time said the PNP would win a sizeable victory.

The Gleaner front page of February 19, 2016, for example, screamed: ‘Forecast: PNP Win! — Portia set to remain PM after election, university team projects 40 seats for the PNP’.

Jamaica’s 17th parliamentary election was held on February 25, 2016. The PNP was defeated. The JLP went into the February 25, 2016 national plebiscite with 21 seats and the PNP with 42. The JLP did not lose any, and simultaneously gained 11 of the PNP’s.

Anyway, my weekend visits during the last 6½ months have been focused on marginal constituencies in different parishes.

“Dem ah try,” “Him ah try, man,” “She ah duh a ting,” “Him nuh bad ehh nuh,” She cyaan gwaan enuh,” “We see him doing some things,” “Him working,” “Hmmm, she nuh bad,” “I think they are trying,” “Holness a work, mi nah lie,” “They trying, they trying,” “Him working for real.” These and very similar characterisations/descriptions were by far the most common responses received when I randomly asked voting-aged adults in various social spaces what they thought of the performance of Prime Minister Andrew Holness and his Administration in general, and their Member of Parliament (MP), specifically.

Why is this kind of response so important? And what does a Jamaican mean when he/she says: “She/Him/Dem ah try?” As I see it, in our social, economic, cultural, and political contexts, the above responses are significantly positive. My interpret is: While I am not totally pleased, I see where some good efforts are being made, and I am feeling/seeing some positives from those efforts.

Doubtless, some will bellow: “Higgins, how can you possibly make such a deduction?”

“Elementary, my dear Watson,” think Sir Arthur Doyle and the detective Sherlock Holmes.

Human beings in general recognise that we are wrapped in a mortal coil. Infallibility is the preserve of God. Only God is omnipresent and omniscient, most human beings accept that.

Reasonable Jamaicans, that is most of us, don’t believe that Prime Minister Holness has a magic wand which he can wave and miraculously remedy all our problems.

We know that MPs cannot, for example, simply shout, “Abracadabra” and all ills will disappear.

Human beings are, in general, sensible and rational. That is a settled matter. Folks don’t expect a century every time their political representative goes to the batting crease. What we vehemently resent, however, is consistent low-voltage performances, matched by flagrant nonchalance and disrespect for our trust.

Jamaicans, like constituents in other jurisdictions, put a premium on the sincere efforts of political representatives and related. They reward it, too.

Professor Carl Stone (now deceased), internationally acclaimed political sociologist who pioneered the systematic study of voting behaviour in Jamaica, among other things, had some very interesting ways of coding or decoding, if you like, responses, given our unique economic, political, social, and cultural contexts.

Professor Stone noted, for example, that when Jamaicans characterised/described their condition/situation as “not bad” they meant that they were doing relatively well. In other words, what sounded like a negative was actually a positive description of their well-being.

I am no Carl Stone. Here, though, is my decoding of the mentioned “Dem a try” responses.

Folks are not gung-ho about the total performance of the Holness Administration and some MPs, but, on the whole, they were satisfied that real efforts were being made to remedy problems, especially long-standing ones which irk them daily. I believe this is a major positive for the governing JLP.

MUCH WORK AHEAD!

Two Sundays ago I said, among other things: “For many years it was accepted that the energising of the party base was the primary, if not the only objective of the annual conference of our two major political parties. There is a new reality in our politics, which I don’t believe the PNP has seized.

The base of either party is very unlikely, by themselves, to secure the political bacon in a general election. Annual national conferences, therefore, have to adopt a big tent approach in tone, tenor, and theme. The political parties have much work to do in the coming weeks and months. I believe that work will have to include, among other things, more, much more, community-type engagements, and less, much less, motorcades and big rallies.

Big rallies and motorcades are important political ingredients, but, based on feedback which I gathered on my most recent road trips, there is also a longing for a return to touchy-feely-type connections. By this, I mean, church hall, community centre, town hall-type engagements and related upfront and personal meetings which were mainstream before the novel coronavirus pandemic.

In the run-up the 2016 General Election, the JLP disturbed the local political tectonic plates with its “1.5-m tax relief” package. Prime Minister Andrew Holness hit a superb six in Clarks Town, Trelawny, not so long ago, when he said among other things: “We will deliver the next version of 1.5.”

I think Holness’ commitment to another fully financed income tax threshold relief will sufficiently motivate a significant segment of especially uncommitted voters to leave the comfort of their homes and head to the polling stations when the 19th parliamentary election is held.

I believe the next version of 1.5 is crucial. The middle and working classes are waiting anxiously to hear the details. I gathered that much on my mentioned road trips.

The PNP says it is now a convert of raising the tax threshold. The PNP said earlier this year that it supports raising the tax threshold beyond the $2.2 million that the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI) has recommended, and which Dr Nigel Clarke, our minister of finance and public service, said the Administration would be amenable to in May of last year.

The PNP sounds chameleon-ish to me. Recall it was the PNP that said the 1.5-m tax rebate was “deceptive and laced with empty promises”. Recall Dr Peter Phillips, then minister of finance and public service, argued that its implementation would bankrupt the country. The Holness Administration successfully implemented its commitment, and some 400,000 Jamaicans are still benefiting.

A STROKE OF LUCK?

Now I anticipate that some readers are going to bellow, “Higgins, the 2015 prediction was just a stroke of luck and nothing else.” Hindsight geniuses will doubtless shout: “Cho, I knew the PNP was going to lose, all along.” Really?! Others with conveniently short memories will scream: “So which other consequential elections did your use your road trip data to forecast correctly?”

Let me help those naysayers. I consider myself a very discerning observer of our political tea leaves. Recall that on October 8, 2017 I said: “Dr Norman Dunn will win the by-election in St Mary South Eastern.” (Jamaica Observer, October 8, 2017).

On October 22, 2017 I wrote: “The by-election in St Mary South Eastern is eight days from today. Two weeks ago I predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Dr Norman Dunn. Then, I based my prediction on poll findings of a credible pollster as told to me. I did not indicate what size of a win. Given information which I gathered last Saturday, and on National Heroes’ Day, in the constituency, and findings from credible polls which a very kind soul put under my door, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has covered St Mary South Eastern from end to end, I can now say Dr Dunn will cross the finish line very comfortably ahead of the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Dr Shane Alexis.” (Jamaica Observer, October 22, 2017) I was right! Dr Dunn trounced his opponent by over 900 votes in the October 30, 2017 by election.

On March 31, 2019 I said in this space: “Given information which I gathered on three visits to Portland Eastern and the findings of the Jamaica Observer/Bill Johnson polls, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has engaged Portland Eastern from end to end, I am predicting that the JLP will overturn the sizeable winning margin which Dr Lynvale Bloomfield registered in 2016.

“I am calling the by-election in Portland Eastern for the JLP’s Ann-Marie Vaz. She will cross the finish line before Senator Damion Crawford, and she won’t be spent from the sprint.”

My forecast was described as “politically sacrilegious” by a learned person on social media. Many other not-so-learned people said I was off my rocker. A friend of mine said: “The PNP will not lose East Portland; not in 100 years.” One of my readers sent me this terse message: “2,226, JLP, cyah cross it.”

Recall the late Dr Lynvale Bloomfield had actually won the seat in the February 25, 2016 General Election by 2,276 votes. Some pundits and polling experts, too cowardly to ‘call it’ because they were left with egg all over their faces owing to their wayward predictions in January/February 2016, hedged their bets and/or spoke out of both sides of their mouths. Senator Damion Crawford, then vice-president of the PNP and then the most popular politician in that party, was soundly defeated by a then political neophyte Ann-Marie Vaz in the by-election on April 4, 2019. Vaz received 9,917 votes and Crawford got 9,611. I was proved right.

My forecasts regarding wins for the JLP in the November 2016 local government election, the JLP’s landslide general election victory on September 3, 2020, Dr Nigel Clarke’s by-election victory in the St. Andrew North Western constituency in March, 2018 were all spot-on.

More recently, in my The Agenda piece on February 18, 2024, titled ‘JLP for the win’, I said: “The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will win the 17th local government elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944, which will be held on February 26, 2024.” I was proved right.

I also said: “I have completed my weekend visits into key parishes. Last week a generous person pushed some very revealing scientific poll findings under my door. Based on the combination of those poll findings, my observations… etc. I am forecasting a JLP victory.” I was proved right.

For those who say these forecasts are all a stroke of luck, God bless you richly. Had the data indicated a PNP win I would have called it here, too.

Garfield Higgins is an educator, journalist, and a senior advisor to the minister of education and youth. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.