I am writing to address the recent by-elections, held on November 22, 2024, in which the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) secured two out of the four contested seats.

While some may view this outcome as a setback for the JLP, it is crucial to analyse the results within the broader context of the political landscape and the historical precedents that shape our current reality.

The JLP’s victory in Trelawny Southern, led by former Speaker of the House Marisa Dalrymple Philbert, is particularly noteworthy. This seat carries historical significance, and her win, especially against an opponent like Lloyd “Mozy” Gillings, who has previously represented both parties but chose to run as an independent this time, demonstrates the complexities of voter sentiment. It reflects not only the strength of the JLP’s local campaign, but also highlights the shifting allegiances among the electorate.

However, the results in Morant Bay and Aenon Town are particularly telling. The People’s National Party (PNP) has traditionally dominated these divisions, with Morant Bay being a stronghold for them, having won comfortably in past elections. The fact that the JLP lost Morant Bay by a reduced margin of 118 votes down from 400 in the last election indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment. This 29.5 per cent reduction in support for the PNP in this division suggests that the JLP is making inroads, despite the PNP’s overall victory.

In Aenon Town, a division that has been under PNP control for three decades, the JLP’s recent win by 92 votes in the local government election was promising. However, the PNP’s reclamation of this division by a mere 54 votes, which is 42 per cent less the the JLP, should not be overlooked. This slim margin indicates that the PNP’s grip on this traditional stronghold is weakening, as they were unable to secure a convincing victory.

While the PNP may celebrate its wins, the reality is that it has lost ground in Morant Bay and failed to demonstrate a strong resurgence in Aenon Town. For JLP supporters who may feel disheartened, it is essential to recognise that these results reflect a shifting political landscape. The writing is on the wall: the JLP has work to do, but the progress made in traditionally PNP strongholds should not be dismissed.

The recent by-elections signal a changing tide in Jamaican politics. The JLP must continue to build on these gains and address the concerns of the electorate, particularly the party workers, to solidify its position in the future. The party will have to move swiftly to hold its Members of Parliament (MP) and their councillors accountable. These election results speak to the severe lack of engagement on the ground; voters are increasingly looking for representatives who are not only present during election season, but who actively advocate for their communities year-round.

Andrew Holness, as the party leader, has spoken about the need for better representation and the importance of holding MPs accountable. However, these statements must translate into action. If the JLP truly wants to secure a third term it must not only articulate its vision but also demonstrate its commitment to delivering results that resonate with the electorate.

Voters are in an anti-Government mood globally, and the JLP must take note of this from a geopolitical perspective. Since the pandemic hit in 2020, incumbents have been removed from office in 40 of 54 elections in Western democracies, said Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University, revealing “a huge incumbent disadvantage”. This illustrates a shift in the mindset of voters who are increasingly demanding accountability and transparency from their leaders.

Historically, the JLP has faced similar challenges. In its pursuit of a third term in 1972 the JLP lost to the PNP after one of the most successful periods of governance, during which the country experienced significant economic growth of approximately 18.01 per cent and massive infrastructure development between 1967 and 1972. This period serves as a reminder that, even during times of success, complacency, selfishness, and greed can lead to electoral defeat.

Similarly, the JLP lost again in 1989, after taking power in 1980, inheriting an economy that had collapsed with negative growth of up to -4 per cent. The JLP, under the leadership of Edward Seaga, managed to rebuild the economy to a growth rate close to 8 per cent yet this achievement was overshadowed by the party’s failure to connect with its worker core and the broader electorate on pressing social issues. These historical precedents highlight the importance of sustained engagement with constituents and the need for political parties to evolve with the changing needs of the populace.

The JLP must reflect on these periods and learn from the past. Let history be our guide. The lessons from previous electoral cycles should inform the party’s strategies moving forward. Engaging with constituents, understanding their needs, and addressing their concerns should be at the forefront of the JLP’s agenda. The party must also work diligently to rebuild trust among its supporters and the wider electorate, ensuring that they feel heard, valued, respected and represented.

Moreover, the JLP should consider investing in grass roots initiatives that empower, particularly, party workers and local communities. By fostering a culture of inclusivity and participation the party can strengthen its ties to the electorate and demonstrate its commitment to addressing the challenges faced by ordinary Jamaicans. This approach not only enhances the party’s image, but also lays the groundwork for sustained electoral success.

While the recent by-elections may not have yielded the desired results in two of the four seats/divisions for the JLP, they provide valuable insights into the current political climate. The party must take these lessons to heart, engage with its supporters, and remain vigilant in addressing the concerns of the workers and general electorate. By doing so, the JLP can position itself for success in the next general election constitutionality due by September 2025 and secure its place as a responsive and responsible governing party.

Kristophe60@hotmail.com