In his speech on becoming the 30th Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) Hall of Famer last year, reflecting on his experience as the longest PSOJ president (over two separate terms of a combined five years), Sagicor CEO Christopher Zacca argued that progress in Jamaica occurred “especially when the public and private sectors worked together”.

It is worth quoting the following paragraphs in full.

“Nowhere is that more evident than the transformation of Jamaica’s fiscal economy over the last 11 years. We have seen the debt-to-GDP [gross domestic product] ratio come down to manageable levels, foreign currency reserves at record highs, and an independent central bank managing inflation. This was unimaginable just 15 years ago. The credit for this transformation goes to the entire society, which banded together to make the tough decisions necessary. It’s a testament to what can be achieved through public-private partnerships.”

He noted that this transformation took place seamlessly across two successive political administrations, from 2012 to 2016 under the People’s National Party (PNP) Government led by Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, Finance Minister Peter Phillips, and then Justice Minister Mark Golding, followed by Prime Minister Andrew Holness and former Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke, all supported by so many of their Cabinet members.

Importantly, he observed: “We’re also navigating a world in turmoil and one full of uncertainties — whether it’s environmental, political, or ideological. Jamaica is not immune, and having gone through the pain of COVID-19 and of high global inflation, it is apparent that, as the society navigates these stresses, the divides in our society are widening and the political rhetoric is increasingly alarming,” adding that as Gordon “Butch” Stewart used to tell him, “Chrissy, my boy, when people are in trouble, you all go back to back and fight your enemies.”

Zacca called for unity, “a whole-of-society partnership to tackle our shared challenges” as part of a pivot to a deliberate two-pronged national strategy focused both on maintaining fiscal discipline “while driving robust and sustainable economic growth” as “fiscal discipline alone isn’t enough”.

Stating that there are many growth strategies sitting on shelves, he confined himself to only a few issues: cutting unnecessary and archaic regulations that stifle business and incentivise corruption, prioritising agriculture, and addressing the shortage of skilled labour that is suppressing growth.

He noted that real transformation requires tough decisions that won’t please everyone, which was why “a necessary condition for the success of fiscal transformation across successive administrations was social partnership, united around the urgent need for it”.

He ended his speech by calling for the PSOJ to lead the charge in forming a coalition of civil society to work alongside both the Government and the Opposition in developing and, most importantly, implementing a new national growth strategy.

Zacca is not wrong. While the prime minister’s recent speeches, including at this year’s Jamaica Stock Exchange conference, have outlined encouraging elements of a potential growth strategy, the recent projections of the budget basically suggest business as usual.

The 2.2 per cent growth projected for next fiscal year is essentially a recovery from the negative weather-induced stock of negative 0.7 per cent for the current fiscal year ending in March, followed by multi-year projections of what could now unfortunately be called our “traditional” rate of growth of 1 per cent, with the “estimates” even emphasising downside risks. Whilst it is likely that the projections would have been essentially finalised before the announced “pivot”, any growth strategy will require a change of investment emphasis to be effective — a much longer conversation.

Zacca also emphasised the invaluable work of the public-private Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC). It is worth looking back briefly at EPOC as a model for how to resolve problems for other difficult areas of public policy.

Founding co-chairs Richard Byles and Brian Wynter, then governor of the Bank of Jamaica, established this as a highly relevant oversight body between 2013 and 2016. Keith Duncan succeeded Richard Byles as co-chair and later chairman, while former Governor Brian Wynter continued in the role of co-chair up to 2019, after which Duncan continued as the sole chair until the end of EPOC on December 13 last year when it was replaced by the Independent Fiscal Commission and the Independent Fiscal Advisory Committee in January 2025, a product of the leadership of former Finance Minister Clarke.

EPOC began reporting to the nation in 2013 and provided transparent updates on the country’s economic progress, distributed through national newspapers and its website. Beyond formal reporting, the committee also initiated community outreach to the citizens of Jamaica, including the inner-city, a point to note for any future versions.

A proper case study of EPOC, and particularly the lessons of its very difficult early days under Dr Peter Phillips, has yet to be written. However, Jamaica’s planned pivot to growth now requires a similar urgency to that of 2013 due to the now-unprecedented potential changes in the post-1945 world order.

The global environment is changing radically and fast, so that the mission of economic independence called for by Norman Manley, amongst other founding fathers and so ably enunciated by former Finance Minister Clarke, is no longer a nice-to-have but an absolute national necessity.

This means we will have to finally decide to solve, ourselves, some of our many complex problems, including the high cost of energy; crime (for example, the more aggressive travel warnings and the likely return of nationals from overseas makes our recent improvements insufficient); and our failure to increase productivity (the need for technology infusion as outlined in the recent World Bank development report launched here) and create a financial system that actually funds entrepreneurs. As NCB capital markets CEO Angus Young noted regarding the financial sector, there is no motherland (or indeed fatherland) coming to help.

It will also require Jamaica to think strategically, as Singapore did in the 1960s, and put resources behind the sectors we want to focus on, for example health tourism, logistics, light manufacturing, and genuinely “foresight”, meaning look into the future, in areas such as the impact of artificial intelligence on the future of work, if we want to avoid being left even further behind.