In the world of investing, the age-old Jamaican proverb, “Patient man ride donkey,” reminds us that great rewards often come with time and persistence. While the vast majority of Jamaicans have long moved past “riding donkey”, the wisdom of this saying still holds true, especially when comparing the two key investment strategies: ‘time in the market’ versus ‘timing the market.’ Every investor, from the seasoned Wall Street professional to the first-time buyer, has faced the same temptation — trying to outguess the stock market. The idea of consistently jumping in at the perfect moment and cashing out at the peak is alluring, but it’s also a financial mirage. The truth? Successful investing isn’t about having a crystal ball — it’s about having a framework to select high quality stocks (or any investment, for that matter) and then the patience to see them through.

Bob Marley’s Legacy: A Testament to Longevity

Consider the legendary Bob Marley. While his music and message were powerful during his lifetime, his true financial and cultural impact exploded over the decades under the careful stewardship of his wife, Rita Marley. According to
Forbes, Bob Marley’s estate generated over US$14 million in revenue in 2020 alone — earning in the region of US$193 million over the last 10 years (Jamaica Observer, 2021). This exponential growth did not come from short-term plays but from his loved ones’ commitment and dedication to building a lasting brand. This captures the concept of ‘time in the market.’

What is Time in the Market?

Time in the market refers to the strategy of holding investments for an extended period, allowing them to weather short-term volatility and benefit from long-term growth. Take, for instance, TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH), listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) in 2020 at $1.41 per share. The toll road operated by TJH remains the main link between Kingston and other populated urban and industrial centres, including the cities of Portmore and May Pen. Furthermore, the asset is currently the only high-speed roadway serving the western part of Kingston’s metropolitan area, with an estimated population of 1.4 million people along the corridor. It is also supported by a satisfactory rate-setting mechanism, which allows tariffs to be adjusted annually based on changes in US inflation and the foreign exchange (FX) rates between the Jamaican dollar and the US dollar. Overall, it is a strong infrastructure asset. While its price fluctuated, fell post-IPO and languished during the pandemic, investors who remained patient saw their investment grow to $4.03 per share by February 14, 2025 — an impressive 185.8 per cent appreciation.

What is Timing the Market?

Conversely, timing the market involves attempting to buy low and sell high based on market predictions. For most investors, market timing typically involves waiting for the market to begin rallying before purchasing stocks and selling at the first sign of a dip, aiming to capitalise on price highs and avoid the lows. However, this approach can result in significant losses, as investors often chase short-term gains and fail to accurately predict market fluctuations. Using the same example, an investor who sold TJH at $2.40 in June 2023 thinking it had peaked, would have missed an additional 92.9 per cent gain by December 2024 when the stock was trading at $4.63. Predicting the market consistently is nearly impossible, and missing even a few key growth periods can significantly impact your long-term returns.

Studies have shown that missing just the 10 best days in the market over a 30-year period can cut an investor’s returns in half. And those best days? They usually come right after the worst ones. Rather than attempting to time the market, the more beneficial strategy is to spend time in the market, allowing for long-term growth and the potential for compounding returns.

Why Time Wins Over Timing

Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said, “We continue to make more money snoring than when active”, capturing the essence of why time wins over timing. Instead of fixating on finding the perfect entry point, focus on selecting quality investments. Choose high-quality businesses in long-term growth industries with a sound strategy and strong leadership, rather than buying popular stocks or familiar companies. If you are invested in a strong company, you’re likely to be less concerned about the impact of short-term market volatility.

What’s the Takeaway for Investors?

Having spent the time and done the research to select quality investments, focus on implementing strategies that allow you to get the most from investing over time. These strategies can include dollar-cost averaging or investing a fixed amount regularly. This helps to remove emotional decision-making while taking advantage of fluctuating prices in the market. Another strategy is to diversify. This allows investors to spread their investments across different sectors and therefore cushioning the impact of likely downturns. However, investors must practice patience and allow the market’s natural upward trend to work in their favour.

When you practise investing for the long-term, as an investor, you stand to benefit from:

• Lower emotional stress – Riding out market volatility without panic-selling.

• Lower costs – Fewer trades mean reduced transaction fees.

• Increased opportunity for compounded growth or investment growth over time because you ignored the short-term market volatility.

Just as Bob Marley’s legacy flourished through patience and vision, investors who embrace investing for the long-term can also benefit. In the end, investing isn’t about perfect timing—it’s about time itself. The best moment to start? Yesterday. The second-best moment? Today.

Dr Karrian Hepburn Malcolm, Head — Wealth Management, National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited