These are the best of times for some, and the worst for others. Global economic, political, and social opportunities and uncertainties are aplenty. Talk of a global economic recession abounds. Awful noises and menacing whispers of wars are abundant, while technological advances are mushrooming. Should the world be alarmed? Some say the world should be frightened, very, very frightened, while some say the world is simply witnessing the fading of the light of one generation — this so that another can shine.

Neil Howe and William Strauss, for example, in their widely acclaimed book, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the cycles of History tell us about America’s next rendezvous with destiny, posit that history repeats itself in 80-year to 100-year cycles. Within each cycle there are four turnings, or intervals of 20 years. Every cycle starts with optimism and then flat-lines with crisis and change. Subscribers to this theory say we are now near the end of another 100-year cycle and that realignments and readjustments reminiscent of the economic, social and political shifts of the 1930s are unfolding again. The sky is not falling, they say.

The diametric and ideological opposite of those who believe history repeats itself, and/or rhymes, are those who say the sky’s fall is inevitable and the catastrophic end of the world is nigh. They see the social, political and economic uncertainties rocking the world as the surest sign that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse have quickened the movements of their steeds. Judgement will soon be unleashed on the world these proponents of end-times proclaim.

We should be extremely careful of some of those who wear shiny robes and profess that they have a direct line to God. “The Lord told me this, and the Lord told me that,” after nearly every sentence, is a giant red flag. Jesus himself warned: “But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.” (St Matthew 24: 36, KJV)

Since we do not know when Jesus will return and, yes, I know the arguments about signs of his second coming, the
Bible advises that our best bet is to work hard, watch, and pray. (Matthew 24: 42) That very wise approach for safeguarding of our personal salvation can also be applied to protecting our national well-being given global uncertainties, today.

THE WORLD AS IT IS

In the midst of the severely topsy-turvy state of social, economic, and political happenings globally, the worst thing that could happen — especially at this time — is for Jamaica to socially, economically, and politically backslide. The excruciating miseries that were visited upon this country, especially in the 1970s and 90s, must be avoided like the plague.

The baleful words and actions of some among us who wish to hold especially the highest elected or selected offices in this land forewarn of the awful resurrection of an unusable past. Jamaica cannot afford to cancel out the massive macroeconomic and related achievements garnered because of the blood, sweat, and tears of especially ordinary folks over the last 12 years. Backsliding is death for us all.

I have said it here and elsewhere, but it bears repeating: There is no magic wand that anyone can wave to remedy especially our long-standing problems of underachievement in education, crime control, social decadence, institutional decline, and dwindling national productivity. Those who tell us that they have developed a magical elixir are liars.

There are some global realities that are before us and some on the immediate horizon which Jamaica cannot paper-over. Here are a few: “Beggar thy neighbour,” which refers to an economic policy wherein a country attempts to improve its economic situation by making its trading partners worse off are back in vogue. Such economic policies are carried out principally through protectionist measures like tariffs or currency devaluation, and/or related mercantilist activities.

Some scholars hold that the current resurgence of mercantilist policies is par for the course. Those scholars posit that over the last 200 years, for example, there have been epistemological (knowledge) shifts in economics spanning from imperial-type economics before World War I, and extreme protectionism between periods of the two world wars. Then there was the rise of Keynesian economics, followed by neoliberalism, and now we are back again with mercantilist-type economics. In a nutshell, these scholars believe it is the natural order of things for ideas/intellectual frameworks to rule like kings for specific seasons, then lose power and then regain it over the passage of time.

Anyway, the last time mercantilist economics ruled the waves of international trade was during the 30s, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, US legislation (June 17, 1930) raised import duties to protect American businesses and farmers. These tariffs put tremendous pressure on the then global economic climate and some scholars say they, in fact, caused, if not, worsened the Great Depression of 1929-39.

Some who feign ignorance will surely bellow, “Higgins, why must I know all this stuff?” For those who genuinely do not understand, those of us who have the knowledge have a duty to enlighten them.

A developing economy like Jamaica cannot ignore the realities of the world as it is for one that we imagine, as some among us have a history of doing. Their wild imaginings and dalliances with socialist diatribe resulted in near-catastrophic consequences in the 70s and 90s. On the whole, many of the orchestrators of our misery back then, cleverly engineered their escapes from the terrible consequences of the monsters which they unleashed on this country. It is foolhardy to trust their unrepentant offspring. That’s common sense.

PRAGMATISM WINS

Here is another bit of common sense which must not escape the notice of especially Western-style liberal democracies.

Neil Howe, one of the authors of the mentioned book, in speaking to parallels between the 30s and today, noted among other things in a public forum: “People sometimes ask me what decade in American history most resembles the decade we have just been living through. And I tell them there is no question: It’s the 1930s.

“Both of these decades were lived out in the shadows of great financial crisis. Both were characterised by slow and disappointing economic growth. There was the underemployment of labour and capital. There was the emergence of surprising new trends, like fears of deflation and competitive devaluation. Both saw the rising gap between the rich and the poor, marginalisation of working-class Americans, and fears about future living standards.

“Geopolitically, there is the rise in nationalism and right-wing populism. Again, we have not seen that since the 30s with changes in attitudes of voters toward their leaders. We want leaders who can exert authority. We want leaders to take charge. We don’t want processes and abstractions. We want people who guarantee results.”

Like it or not, these are some of the big realities of today’s global space. Folks globally have grown tremendously cynical of the ability of many leaders to deliver in accordance with immediate and especially long-standing needs.

Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness acknowledged this biting reality at a public function recently. Said Holness: “After 27 years as an elected representative, I’ve come to understand the deep frustration many Jamaicans feel towards Government. People still have expectations, they want water, roads, jobs, but deep down many no longer believe we can actually deliver. They say, ‘Sure, dem just talk,’ or ‘Dem just a trick wi,’ or ‘Nutten nah go change.’ That disbelief has grown beyond healthy scepticism; it’s now a serious lack of trust.

“Take Mason Hall, for example, a 200-year-old community that came out of a plantation. To this day many homes still don’t have piped water. People have had to carry water in pans for generations. That kind of long-term neglect makes people feel like things will never improve.

“So, how do we rebuild trust in democracy? We must show real results. Water in your home; that’s prosperity. That’s what people vote for; not just promises, but real, visible change. And if we don’t deliver on the basics, like running water, people will lose faith and sometimes even vote out of frustration. We must prove that Government can work, not just with words, but with action.”

Prime Minister Holness also noted that, “The Mason Hall Water Supply Project is bringing piped water to 900 households in St Mary that previously had no access. This builds upon earlier efforts that connected 4,273 residents through the work of Rural Water Supply Limited and the National Water Commission.”

Deliver or perish, we are in that season. I alerted to the urgency of this reality at the start of 2025 in this space. I also noted that especially national political leaders had to constantly remind citizens that power-hungry self-aggrandisers were on the prowl.

STAY AND BUILD JAMAICA

Those who feel that the realities of today’s global space are a mere figment of some people’s imaginations had better wake up from their slumber before it’s too late. Believe it, no cavalry is coming to save Jamaica. No super hero is going to burst from the sky and solve our problems.

Jamaicans have had a long-standing propensity of leaving in droves for greener pastures. Are those traditional greener pastures still as green and/or even welcoming anymore? There is talk is Canada about drastically cutting back on the number of people who come there each year. The Reform Party in Britain, which credible polls say would win a national election if it were called today, are not exactly welcoming of outsiders. And the happenings in Trump’s America are not a secret.

More of us should use the biting realities of the protectionist and anti-immigration mode which are being increasingly adopted in many countries as an opportunity to stay and help build Jamaica, faster. Based on the present trajectory of the global north, fleeing this Rock might not be easy in coming years.

“Higgins, why should I stay and help build Jamaica?” some will certainly shout. Life chances are improving for the majority.

“Higgins, you lick yuh head,” some will howl. “Things are not getting for the majority?” some will insist. “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts,” Daniel Moynihan famously said. I agree.

Here are some facts which should guide our decisions regarding the state of our country today:

Jamaica’s crime rate, in particular murder, is declining. Consider this headline: ‘Murders down 36% — Major crimes continue to decrease across Jamaica’. The news item gave these and related details: “Jamaica continues to see reductions in major crimes year to date, with murders decreasing by 36 per cent and shootings down 28 per cent, according to the latest statistics released by the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF).” (Jamaica Observer, April 21, 2025)

Our economy is in the best state since 1962. Our unemployment rate for January 2025 stood at 3.7 per cent. As of December 2024, Jamaica’s net international reserves (NIR) stood at US$5.58 billion, according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). Inflation is steady, foreign exchange is readily available, capital flight is largely a thing of the past, our social and physical infrastructures are steadily improving. Jamaica’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was projected to be 68.7 per cent effective March 31, 2025, according to Finance and Public Service Minister Fayval Williams.

Ponder this: ‘Entrepreneurship drives consumer confidence to all-time high’ (Observer, April 17, 2025). The Observer news story said, among other things: “Consumer confidence climbed by five per cent in the first quarter of 2025, moving from 175 to 183 points, the highest level recorded since the survey began.” The Andrew Holness-led Administration has maintained a policy of introducing no new taxes for the past 10 budget cycles, including the 2025-2026 budget.

Jamaica’s best days are ahead of us, stay and build.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.