The conference semi-final round of the 2025 National Basketball Association (NBA) play-offs tipped off on May 4 and, if the first round was roller coaster ride, the semi-final round has certainly not been a joyride. All the JustBet favourites (the Home Teams) lost Game 1 of the semi-final series to the traveling, lower seeds, for the first time in NBA history, including the regular season 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder and the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers, who both registered sweeps in their first-round series.

While the Game 1 results were not earth-shattering, 78 per cent of teams that win the first game of an NBA play-off series eventually advance, therefore the odds were stacked against the higher seeds in the conference semi-finals, from day one.

The Indiana Pacers tipped off the chaotic sequence of events on Sunday, May 4, by stealing the series opener and home court advantage from the Cavaliers, who were without Darius Garland, missing his third-straight play-off contest due to a toe injury. The Pacers proved that the win was not a fluke by also taking Game 2 on May 6, thereby making the series an uphill battle for the Cavaliers. Since 1956, 463 play-off series started with a team winning each of the first two games, including series with less than seven games. In 429 of those, the team with the 2-0 advantage won the series. Only 34 were able to overcome the deficit, a measly 7.3 per cent success rate.

Game 3 was played in Indiana on May 9 and Cleveland took that match-up, which created some hope that they would not end up at the short end of the statistics. That sense of euphoria was short-lived as on May 11, the Pacers registered a 20-point win in Game 4, took a 3-1 lead in the series and left the Cavaliers wondering how their dream season was now looking like a nightmare. Game 5 on Tuesday, May 13 saw the Cavaliers, in Cleveland, put on a good show in the first half but were outpaced in the second half, losing a heartbreaker and became the first casualty of the play-off semi-final round. Donovan Mitchell averaged 34.2 points for the series, including two games with 40+ points, but didn’t have the consistent support necessary to overcome an Indiana team that was hungry to get to the Eastern Conference Finals again, after losing at the same stage to the Boston Celtics last year.

Speaking of which, the Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder, both fell on Monday, May 6, to the New York Knicks and the Denver Nuggets, respectively, in their Game 1 match-ups. The Knicks trailed by as many as 20 points in Boston, but Ogugua Anunoby and the 2024/25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year, Jalen Brunson, scored 29 points each to lead New York to the overtime win, including a Brunson three-point dagger from the top of the arc to seal the upset victory. The Knicks also won Game 2 in Boston on May 7, after again trailing by 20 points, to put the defending champions in a precarious position, heading to New York, with everything to play for.

The Celtics brought some sense of stability to the series, winning Game 3 in Madison Square Gardens on May 10, but fell in Game 4 on Monday, May 12, to find themselves down 1-3 and on the edge of elimination. Boston’s shortcoming was poor shooting from the arc, where they shot 42-of-159, a lowly 26.4 per cent over the first four games, plus the loss of Jayson Tatum in Game 4 to an ankle injury didn’t help the situation. Tatum averaged 25 points in the series, including 42 points in the Game 4 loss before he had to retire. The reported Achilles rupture in his right foot severely impacts Boston’s chance in the series and may also negatively affect the team’s long-term success. That said, with their backs against the wall, the Celtics rallied in Game 5 on Wednesday and had their best three-point performance of the series, shooting 22-of-49 (44.9 per cent), pulling off a 25-point win to force a Game 6 tonight in New York. The Celtics will be in “must-win” mode for the rest of the series, with no room for error, and will need to ball in Game 6 to extend their season to a Game 7 on Monday night.

As for the Knicks, they have surprised many, dispatching the Detroit Pistons in six games and are now holding the Celtics at bay. Brunson has been spectacular, averaging 28.0 points per game in this series, 4.0 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 0.8 steals while shooting 43.2 per cent from the field and 41.2 per cent from beyond the arc in four games. The Knicks will be fighting to get past this stage to face the Pacers and avenge their 2-4 loss in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2000.

In the West, the youngest team in the league, the Thunder, got a gut-punch in Game 1 on Monday, May 5, and suffered their first loss since April 6. The Denver Nuggets rallied from a double-digit deficit in the last five minutes and won on a last-second, three-point shot from Aaron Gordon. The Thunder and the Nuggets went 2-2 in the regular season and on Wednesday, May 7, in Game 2, the team with the best regular season record ensured that they secured a series split in Oklahoma City, to restore some semblance of order in a chaotic week. The Thunder were statistically superior in every category and made the Nuggets look like minnows in Game 2, setting a playoff record for first-half points with 87, surpassing the previous record of 86 set by the Cavaliers against the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on June 9, 2017. The score also tied the record for points in any half of a playoff game, equaling the Milwaukee Bucks’ points in the second half against the Denver Nuggets on April 23, 1978.

The series moved to Denver on May 8 for Game 3 and the Nugget regained the lead in the series with a win. This was short-lived as, two days later, in the same venue, the Thunder leveled the series in a low-scoring encounter that didn’t live up to expectations. Game 5, in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 13, delivered a ding-dong battle for the first three quarters and provided everything one could expect in a playoff game. The hosts had to pull off a dominant fourth quarter to register the win and establish their first lead in a series that boasts the league’s Most Valuable Player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City) and runner-up Nikola Jokic (Denver). Both had incredible seasons, but sadly it has to end here for one of these superstars.

On Tuesday, May 6, in Game 1 between the Warriors and the Minnesota Timberwolves, Stephen Curry left the game in the second quarter due to a hamstring injury and Jimmy Butler shot 7-for-20 for the game. On the face of it, one would have expected a Timberwolves win but as fate would have it, the Warriors emerged with a gutsy, heroic victory in Minnesota. In the first half, the Timberwolves didn’t score a single three-pointer (0-for-15), Anthony Edwards didn’t score a single basket (0-for-8) and the hosts were held to a half-time total of 31 points, a paltry figure in the modern NBA.

Golden State wrestled home court advantage from Minnesota in Game 1, but with Curry unable to participate, they couldn’t capitalise on the advantage. The Timberwolves racked up expected wins in Games 2, 3 4 and 5 on May 8, 10, 12 and 14, respectively, to claim the series and book their spot in the Western Conference Final for the second-straight year.

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NBA 2024/25 Winner

Team Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder 1.75

Minnesota Timberwolves 6.60

New York Knicks 7.20

Indiana Pacers 7.60

Boston Celtics 18.00

Denver Nuggets 27.00

*Note: Odds are subject to change