MONEY and organisation are the two factors that political commentator Lloyd B Smith says will determine who will form Jamaica’s next Government after the general election, which is constitutionally due this year.

And, according to the former Member of Parliament for St James Central and deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) currently has one of those things on its side and the People’s National Party (PNP) has the other.

“From what I’ve been observing so far, the JLP has far more money than the PNP; they are in a much better position financially and in terms of resources. Also, they are emboldened by the fact that they are in government, so they can access resources.

“On the other hand, where the PNP has the edge at this time is in the organisation on the ground. From all indicators, a lot of work has been done and is being done by the PNP on the ground where, on election day, that is what will matter most,” Smith told the Jamaica Observer.

SMITH…You may pay somebody or give the person a benefit to go and vote for you but there’s no reliability on that

Though there’s still no official word on when Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness will call Jamaicans to the polls, he last week met with all 63 members of the governing JLP who are expected to vie for seats in the general election. Holness has also been hitting the pavement in recent weeks, with him speaking at various divisional meetings and worker appreciation events.

However, the Opposition is not be outdone as it has also been actively engaging supporters through a series of islandwide meetings, with President Mark Golding leading the charge.

Smith told the Sunday Observer that in the final analysis, elections are won on election day, and both parties will have to be well-resourced to be victorious. The political commentator also pointed out that politics is transactional, and during election campaigns there is often some amount of vote-buying that will take place — be it directly or indirectly.

“During an election campaign a lot of transactions like that go on, so it may not be the exchange of money or cash but a lot of favours are usually given out in order to persuade the voter — and that’s where the money aspect comes in.

“On the other hand, the organisation has to do with bringing out the votes. You may pay somebody or give the person a benefit to go and vote for you but there’s no reliability on that. He or she might not turn up on election day, for whatever reason, and this is where the organisation comes in where[by] the runners and everybody has to be on the ground checking the voters’ list continually to make sure all the persons that they anticipate will vote for their party actually do so,” he explained.

Smith stressed that being organised also includes having supporters motivated to vote, cautioning that, “if that is not there, then any number can play”.

Meanwhile, political analyst Damion Gordon, in assessing the campaign strategies of both political parties, stated that the governing JLP has seen it fit to focus on its achievements as the party encourages voters to ‘Choose Jamaica’ while the Opposition PNP is finding, and highlighting, weaknesses within the ruling party.

Political analyst Damion Gordon weighs in on the strategies of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party and the Opposition People’s National Party during an interview last Wednesday at the Beechwood Avenue, St Andrew, headquarters of the Jamaica Observer. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

“The strategy of the Government has been focused on legacy and, ‘my achievements speak for themselves’…and again, some initiatives are being rolled out currently and the Government is conveying the idea that, ‘we have worked, we have performed, we have delivered for you, and you should vote for us and re-elect us based on our record’.

“It has also had some big names. They just pulled Senator [Ambassador] Audrey Marks, who has been [tapped] as a candidate [to replace long-standing Member of Parliament for Manchester North Eastern Audley Shaw], and when you pull those big names it brings about a certain level of prestige and credibility about these people you can pull — people with influence and prestige, industry leaders, movers, and shaker. That has been the general strategy of the Government,” Gordon told the Sunday Observer.

If installed, Marks, the former ambassador of Jamaica to the United States, is expected to go up against the PNP’s Valenton “Val” Wint, who has thrice lost his bids in parliamentary elections for Manchester North Eastern.

With a voter turnout of 34.40 per cent in the last general election, the JLP secured the Manchester North Eastern constituency with 6,864 votes to the PNP’s 2,957, when the JLP’s Audley Shaw faced off with the PNP’s Donald Jackson. The gap was widened in 2020 when compared to the 2016 General Election as the JLP had defeated the PNP by just over 1,600 votes, amassing a total 8,826 votes to the Opposition’s 7,179 votes. Wint had gone up against Shaw in 2016 and the voter turnout for that election was 58.08 per cent.

Gordon shared that the campaign strategy of the PNP is to highlight instances of corruption within the governing party. However, he noted that the alternative policies of the PNP remain unclear.

“[The PNP] has attempted to articulate some of its alternatives, and it is now embarking on a series of town hall meetings. The PNP has been in campaign mode for a long time, and they have been engaging in a series of campaign-related activities — including tours and stops — and now they are doing a series of town hall meetings. Because this is the first in a long while the party seems viable, where the party genuinely seems like it can do well in the upcoming election — because they were decimated in the last general election,” said Gordon.

Data from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica show that the JLP had a landslide victory in the 2020 General Election as it captured 49 of the island’s 63 seats, some of which were previously considered ‘safe seats’ for the PNP which won 14 seats. This was in stark contrast to the 32-31 split in favour of the JLP in the 2016 election.

However, Gordon noted that recent polls suggest that since the 2020 General Election the gap has closed significantly, with the PNP gaining traction by maximising its voice and visibility.

“I think where a lot of people feel that the Opposition is falling short is in terms of articulating the ideas. People are still not sure about their policy alternatives; they have not been able to clearly articulate their policy alternatives in a way that is convincing, that is simplified, and that people understand. And, therefore, people are saying, ‘Yes, the Government might not be doing such a good job in our mind but we’re not quite sure what the Opposition stands for as an alternative,’ ” said Gordon.