Except for the 1960s and the mid-1980s, persistent low and/or no economic growth have been veritable suffocating millstones around the necks of Jamaicans. Forbes magazine once commented: “Jamaica’s economy has grown on average less than one per cent a year for the last three decades.” (www.forbes.com/places/jamaica/).

It is ordinary Jamaicans who have borne the brunt of the massively negative consequences of this state of affairs for decades. The reality for many Jamaicans is that they are poorer and less respected.

I expect that some are going to say, “But, Higgins, anything above zero is economic growth.”

I won’t be detained and/or get trapped into that cul-de-sac.

Some among us, for reasons which are obvious to all but the discerning, have and will doubtless continue to try and get us drunk on the moonshine of mediocrity in all spheres of national life. We must reject these low-voltage misleaders at every level. These kinds of inept leaders, with more than a little help from us, have retarded our growth and development for many, many years.

WHY SLOW AND/OR NO GROWTH?

As I see it, these are the core reasons Jamaica has been predominantly trapped in a hugely debilitating spiral of low and/or no economic growth. For decades we were being strangled by crippling debt. Decades of “run wid it” or profligacy, particularly in the 70s and 90s, pushed this country to the brink of near bankruptcy.

Recall that: “By 2013 Jamaica’s public debt had reached a historic high of about 147 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product], making it one of the most-indebted countries in the world,” said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

There was just not enough fiscal space after honouring debt obligations. Remember, our constitution mandates that we have to pay our debt. But aside from debilitating debt, Jamaica also wasted billions on numerous poorly thought-out schemes. Some of these are well-documented in commissions of inquiry, which I have discussed here previously. Some got immensely rich from these schemes, too. Today some live in cooler climes.

In my The Agenda piece eight Sundays ago I illustrated with specific and costly examples that, “It is the norm for very consequential projects to take years to move beyond the stage of ground-breaking.” I showed that, “Proposed laws which are critical to our national advance often take decades to become statutes. And bureaucratic bungling often retards the execution of critical life-saving actions in government ministries/agencies. Consequently, all Jamaicans have been made poorer and less respected.”

After decades of irrationality we were forced to start to think and behave reasonably. A prerequisite for meaningful economic growth is the laying of a strong macroeconomic foundation. It has taken Jamaica some 15 years to build that. Recall that in 2010 Prime Minister Bruce Golding, along with Audley Shaw, the minister of finance and the public service, began decisive actions, including two domestic debt exchanges, to bring Jamaica’s debt trajectory on a sustained pathway. That was the genesis of Jamaica’s economic recovery programme after the People’s National Party (PNP) set the house ablaze in the 1970s, and during the 18½ years between 1989 and 2007.

BRIGHTER DAYS POSSIBLE

I do not believe it was because of any innate goodness on the part of any of our political leaders why we started to rein in profligacy preoccupations. It was a near-catastrophic event/reality that forced Jamaica to finally come to her senses.

Had Jamaica not got to almost the limit of her borrowing capacity, I believe we would have had more leaders of the ilk of Dr Omar Davies, who served as the finance and planning minister for some 14 years. We must not forget Davies’ now-infamous “run wid it” speech which set off a national firestorm of criticism in the aftermath of the 2002 General Election.

Davies implied that, despite clear danger signs, some government spending had been done with an eye on another electoral victory for the PNP. It was a most frightening admission of profligate spending, which must sink in the craw of well-thinking Jamaicans. I am convinced that the best way to avoid the repeat of terrible and expensive errors is to institute measures to make repeats near-impossible.

I also strongly believe the best way to prevent profligate spending by any future Jamaican Administration is the institution of a constitutional debt brake similar to Germany’s. I said similar, not the same, since common sense says that we would have to tailor our own benchmarks to match our realities.

I expect some are going to shout: “But, Higgins, you are not an economist or financial analyst, so why on Earth should we treat your suggestions with any seriousness?”

My answer to those individuals is this: “Jamaica has had some high-flying and some not-so-high-flying financial experts manage especially our national purse since political independence in 1962. The results of their stewardships, in the main, have been ruinous. On the whole, they have made us poorer and less respected, among other things, because of the absence of constitutional legislations to protect us from them.

Jamaica’s financial future is, therefore, best protected by never, ever assuming that the ‘goodness’ of especially our political leaders is ever sufficient to be taken to the bank. Some of our leaders are looking only to feather their nests “by any means necessary”. Sixty-three years of independence has taught us that.

The present positive state of especially our macroeconomics gives us genuine reasons to expect that brighter days are ahead. The present is not, of course, a guarantee of what the future will deliver. In recent times many countries which were on a steady path to recovery have been derailed by incompetent leadership.

Anyway, for now things are looking much brighter, certainly when compared to 12 years ago.

A World Bank update of May 14, 2025 said: “Jamaica’s economy is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2025. Key sectors like agriculture, mining, and construction are helping to drive the recovery. Inflation is expected to stay within the central bank’s target range of around 5 per cent. As incomes rise, poverty is projected to fall, with only 11 per cent of Jamaicans living on less than US$6.85 a day by 2027. Public debt is also expected to decline, reaching 60.7 per cent of GDP by 2027.

However, the outlook faces risks. Global slowdowns, rising uncertainty, and natural disasters could affect growth and delay development goals. Domestic concerns, including crime, violence, and food insecurity, especially among poorer households, also pose challenges.

Unemployment remains low overall (3.5 per cent in late 2024), but youth and female youth unemployment are still high. Although women’s participation in the labour force is increasing, it remains lower than that of men. The mentioned report also said: “Jamaica, home to 2.9 million people, has made significant strides in reducing public debt — from over 140 per cent of GDP in 2013 to 73.4 per cent in FY2023/24. While this reflects strong efforts to manage public finances, economic growth remains modest. The country continues to face challenges, including low productivity, a narrow economic base, and heavy reliance on tourism.”

Clearly, we are not home and dry. We have come a long way, though. Those who believe it is possible to recover from decades of profligacy, bureaucratic slouch, legislative lethargy, social decline, institutional rot, abnormal crime, and the debilitating ‘We ah sufferah’ mindset in only two parliamentary cycles are living in la-la land.

THE URGENCY OF NOW

Jamaica’s greatest economic challenge now is achieving meaningful growth. To me, that is growth which is felt in the pockets of the national majority and visible on dinner tables. If meaningful growth is to be realised, there needs to be a comprehensive understanding of these matters by especially the Government.

First, society is a social contract. If that adhesive falls apart, society falls apart. People have to feel they have a tangible stake/bond in/with the society in which they live. In the 2020 General Election we had the lowest-ever voter turnout since 1944. It was 37 per cent. The social contract is wilting, fast. “If there are no Romans there is no Rome,” said a renowned historian.

Second, unemployment once defined poverty. We now have the working poor, due to low skill, low pay, and rising inflation globally.

Third, not building anything, at any time, anywhere, and far from everyone is not the best use of land.

Fourth, we need to recruit the best and brightest people to work in the public sector. They must be paid very well.

And, fifth, there is no substitute for national productivity increases.

We will not realise meaningful economic growth unless there is massive improvement in productivity in Jamaica. In 2018, “The Jamaica Productivity Centre reported that since the early 1970s Jamaican labour productivity has declined an average of nearly 1.5 per cent a year, meaning the average Jamaican worker has been progressively contributing less to national economic wealth over the past 40 plus years.” (
Jamaica Observer, May 16, 2018).

How might we begin to shift? The long-standing preoccupation with majoring in minors in the public sector, for example, needs to shift to one of facilitation, production, and measurement of especially tangible results. Relatedly, how much longer are we going to wait to engage the trade unions on the thorny subject of harmonised salary increases? The ‘same ole, same ole’ approaches are going to only give us, the ‘same ole, same ole’ results, including thwarted progress; spread of the diseased ‘We as sufferah mindset’; high crime rates, in particular murders; social decay; huge underachievement in education; corruption at many levels; institutional decline; low technology; and low productivity in high and low places.

BUILD, BUILD FAST

Persistent low and no economic growth can only be alleviated via radical change, not small improvements, as I see it. Decades of economic lethargy and decline cannot be remedied with the application of familiar palliatives and customary tinkering. More is needed, and it is needed fast.

For starters, I believe Jamaica needs a new and radical energy policy. This must include a totally reconstituted arrangement with the Jamaica Public Service (JPS). Cheaper and more reliable energy must be the focus going forward. Energy poverty is a reality in Jamaica. Energy prices in Jamaica are several times higher than our competition, near and far. This is a recipe for de-industrialisation as it will affect the manufacturing that we still have. Long-termly, this will make Jamaicans poorer.

Yes, yes, I know the arguments about Jamaica being most suited for service-type industries. History has shown us that a country cannot realise rapid economic growth unless it also builds things, and fast. Jamaica has to continue to build and improve roads, health clinics, houses, and most crucially our education system.

One does not need a degree in economics to understand that without economic growth there are fewer tax receipts, poorer public services, lower and/or stunted remuneration for public sector workers, plus much higher taxes for everyone. Lack of economic growth means greater hardships.

It bears repeating, Jamaica’s ultimate escape from the low-wage, low-tech, and low-growth vortex will ultimately come about by way of massive improvements in our education system. “A majority of students at the end of primary school remain illiterate and innumerate and most leave secondary school with no marketable skills,” this is a recipe for persistent poverty. At a minimum, our children need to leave school being able to read, write, and do mathematics with facility. Those basic skills enable one to learn and/or teach oneself almost anything, quickly.

It won’t be easy for the next Administration. Failure to deliver fast will mean a quick, very quick exit from Jamaica House, I forecast.

Garfield Higgins is an educator, and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness shows Seaward Primary and Infant School students illustrations in the book Teddy and the Plastic Bottle published by the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation. Occasion was Read Across Jamaica Day activities at the school in his St Andrew West Central constituency on May 6. Holness, in his address to the school, urged parents to play an active role in their children’s literacy development. Photo: JIS

The path to growth calls for bold moves.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Garfield Higgins