BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says the forecast for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is for neutral conditions in the Pacific, and a return to near-average sea surface temperatures as well as persistent unusual warmth north of the Caribbean.

ENSO is a climate pattern that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and affects weather patterns worldwide. It involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure, oscillating between El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cool phase), and a neutral state. These fluctuations can significantly impact rainfall and temperature patterns globally.

In its latest publication of the Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOF notes that the forecast will imply recurrent excessive humid heat, culminating in heatwaves as the Caribbean Heat Season peaks in August and September.

It is also predicting that rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise towards September, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

In addition, it is also noting the increasing Atlantic hurricane season activity towards September and, potentially, also during July and August whenever intrusions of the dusty Saharan Air Layer are few around and east of the Caribbean.

“By contrast, Saharan dust episodes, combined with slackened winds, produce hot and humid spells with reduced air quality, all the while stifling intense shower and tropical cyclone activity,” CariCOF added.

CariCOF also said that as of June 1 this year, severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in the Northwestern Bahamas, southwest and northeast Belize, Central Cuba, with long-term drought in southwest Belize, The Bahamas, northern Dominican Republic, and southwest Jamaica.

Meanwhile, CariCOF is warning of episodes of excessive heat expected to ramp up as the Caribbean faces an intense heat season.

It said there will be a strong increase in mild heat symptoms, notable increase in heat illnesses, fainting episodes, hospitalisations, health services as well as a likely increase in biological risk, such as Aedes mosquito borne diseases, gastrointestinal disease and an exacerbation of vulnerability in patients with chronic illness, children, pregnant women and the elderly.

Regarding occupational health, CariCOF said there is the potential increase in exhaustion during intense outdoor activity, as well as significantly reduced labour performance and productivity if unprotected.

It also warned that significantly increased sweating and water consumption, snacking/binge eating could lead to acute negative health impacts, including hypertension, diabetes and weight gain, increased fatigue, irritability and aggression during prolonged heat waves.

“July to September, marking the lead up to the peak of the heat season, islands are forecast to likely be at least as warm as usual, particularly at night, unless stronger than average cooling breezes maintain or cooling rains are very frequent.”

CariCOF said that as the heat season subsides after October, or November in the Guianas, the recurrence of excessive heat will decrease both at night and during the daytime.

It said 25 or more hot spell days are predicted for The Bahamas, Grand Cayman, northwest and southeast Jamaica, Dominica, Martinique, St Lucia, St Martin, and in St Croix.