The marginal seats — I count 19 of them — are the real kingmakers. Whether they are “grey voters”, those are seniors 65 years and older; “high-heel voters”, women; “testosterone voters”, males; and/or youth voters, the citizens in marginal seats who will get out, rain or shine, and go to a polling booth on the day of the upcoming general election will decide whether Dr Andrew Holness, leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), gets a third term at Jamaica House or Mark Golding, president of the People’s National Party (PNP), brings them in from the cold.

“The notion of a marginal seat is a contentious concept, and there is no universally agreed definition of what actually constitutes a marginal seat, says Professor John Wanna, professor emeritus in political science and the former Sir John Bunting chair of public administration at the Australian National University (ANU). I agree.

As I see it, a marginal or swing seat here at home is one that was won in the September 3, 2020 General Election by up to 1,000 or fewer votes. There is no magic about 1,000. It’s a gauge for/of practicable winnability concerning the general election to come.

PITY, ONLY 19

If you live in a marginal seat, count your lucky stars. Why? Consider this from an insightful article titled ‘A guide to life in a marginal constituency’, published by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), on January 15, 2014. It noted among other things: “How do you know you are living in a marginal constituency? One clue is when you get a surprise visit from a top politician. And it’s no good pretending to be out, because the phone calls are about to start too. And the leaflets.

“Over the next 16 months (weeks, my insert) you are going to be bombarded with glossy pamphlets and newspapers packed with pictures of grinning election candidates. If you manage to get your front door open, you might start to wish you had moved house, but you are, in fact, one of the lucky ones. You are part of a select band of people who will decide the outcome of the next general election.”

Voters in marginal seats globally are treated with kid gloves when elections are in the offing. I wish we had plenty more marginal seats in this country. It should never be that individuals who are vying to be entrusted with power on the behalf of citizens and, by extension, manage our local, national, and international affairs can be guaranteed before a single vote is cast that they will get that privilege. This is what happens in safe seats. And that is what happens on steroids in garrison seats here at home.

Garrisons are enclaves of political homogeneity. In a previous piece here some long time ago I discussed how the garrisons were under the belt, literally, of the PNP and the JLP. The political status quo has not massively changed since that article some years ago.

Those who are honest about the goings-on in the politics of this country know that at election time, citizens who live in garrisons are instructed/forced to vote for particular candidates, or else. We know of instances, too, in which some who had defied/ignored orders to turn out and vote had their dwellings burned to the ground, some have been physically assaulted, some have been banished from garrison constituencies, and, even worst, some have been murdered. Oh, I wish we had all marginal seats. Voters are the prize. Politicians should work very hard for every vote.

FORECASTS AND FORECASTS

Anyway, during the most recent road trips in April, May, and June 2025 other gauges were also applied to the categorisation of marginal seats.

There are some seats which have traditionally voted PNP which were wrestled by the JLP during the last nine years. Some of those seats, based on feedback, may well return to 89 Old Hope Road. And, of course, there are some seats which have long been considered as weathervane by some local pundits, researchers, and public commentators. I have also categorised those as marginal seats too.

I declare that I am not a pollster. I am careful not to trespass. I leave professional polling to illustrious folks like Don Anderson, the reputed Don Gorgon (read reigning king), Professor Christopher Charles (expert in political psychology, The University of the West Indies, Mona) and the Bluedot polling organisation.

I am sure some of my readers are well acquainted with the track record, good or bad, of those acclaimed individuals/agency. My ‘methodology’ — if you can call it that — is unorthodox. In summary, I use the vehicle of road trips. I informally and randomly chat with folks in marginal and non-garrison seats in their natural states. I also use credible poll findings. I have been doing these road trips since 2015. Notwithstanding my rather amateurish approach, I have been spot-on with my forecasts since I started.

In October 2015 I said the PNP would lose the then imminent general election. I also noted that the general election would be called in February 2016 (Jamaica Observer, October 25, 2015). I was laughed out of the park. But I was proved right.

Certain experts in matters of scientific polling had predicted a landslide win for the PNP. Recall this: ‘Advantage PNP — Two UWI research teams project another Portia victory’ (
The Gleaner, February 5, 2016). The general election was held on February 25, 2016. The JLP went into the February 25, 2016 national plebiscite with 21 seats and the PNP 42. The JLP did not lose any, and simultaneously gained 11 of the PNP’s.

On June 4, 2016, I wrote among other things: “The PNP will lose the upcoming local government election.” Some said this forecast was easy peasy; so simple that nearly any political watcher could have called it. I concede. Incumbents here at home have seldom lost local governments elections, following on the heels of general election win.

Anyway, on October 8, 2017 I said: “Dr Norman Dunn will win the by-election in St Mary South Eastern” (Jamaica Observer, October 8, 2017). On October 22, 2017 I said: “The by-election in St Mary South Eastern is eight days from today. Two weeks ago I predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Dr Norman Dunn. Then, I based my prediction on poll findings of a credible pollster as told to me. I did not indicate what size of a win. Given information which I gathered last Saturday, and on National Heroes’ Day, in the constituency, and findings from credible polls which a very kind soul put under my door, plus a well-oiled Jamaica Labour Party machine that has covered St Mary South Eastern from end to end, I can now say Dr Dunn will cross the finish line very comfortably ahead of the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Dr Shane Alexis.” (Jamaica Observer, October 22, 2017)

On October 30 Dr Dunn trounced his opponent by over 900 votes.

On February 24, 2019, I said in this space that the PNP would lose the by-election in Portland Eastern. I gave reasons. On March 31, 2019, I wrote: “Given information which I gathered on three visits to Portland Eastern and the findings of the Jamaica Observer/Bill Johnson polls, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has engaged Portland Eastern from end to end, I am predicting that the JLP will overturn the sizeable winning margin which Dr Lynvale Bloomfield registered in 2016. I am calling the by-election in Portland Eastern for the JLP’s Ann-Marie Vaz. She will cross the finish line before Senator Damion Crawford and she won’t be spent from the sprint.”

I did also forecast the defeat of the PNP in the 2020 General election. And I was spot-on in my forecast regarding the most recent local government election, again using road trip information and data from some scientific polls. Of course, some will say that 2020 election was an easy-peasy forecast since the PNP was divided into the contending camps of RiseUnited and OnePNP. There are no iron laws in politics. To date, however, my forecasts have been right, while the forecasts of some others have been wrong, very wrong too.

THE KINGMAKERS

Using the mentioned gauges for marginal seats, the following constituencies qualify.

• Portland Eastern has traditionally voted PNP. Prior to Ann-Marie Vaz wresting it from the PNP in 2019, the PNP had held that seat for some 30-odd years. In the 2020 General Election, Vaz amassed 8,271 votes. Purcell Jackson of the PNP got 6,368.

I forecast that the JLP will retain this seat in the upcoming election and with a bigger margin than 2020. Vaz is a political gold bar. She is visible in all the divisions and is churning out material goods which are positively impacting the pockets and dinner tables of the majority of her constituents.

• St Mary Central has traditionally voted for the PNP. Even in the JLP landslide of 1980 that constituency voted for the PNP. It is one of the most underdeveloped constituencies in the country. In 2020 Dr Morais Guy of the PNP got 6,224 votes and the JLP’s Lennon Richards got 5,754. Dr Guy has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for over 20 years. I suspect he realised that the fat lady had started singing goodbye, and hence his decision to retire.

I forecast that this constituency will stay orange in the upcoming general election.

*St Mary Western is what some pundits call a weathervane seat. MP and JLP Chairman Robert Montague will be hard-pressed to keep that seat in the wining column for the JLP. First and foremost, Montague still needs to do a tremendous amount of mea culpa and thereafter some solid and heartfelt reconnecting and recommitting, especially in the Oracabessa, Gayle, and Boscobel divisions. Time is not on Montague’s side.

• St Mary South Eastern has roughly voted to elect a PNP or JLP MP equal times. Recall that in the general election on February 25, 2016, Dr Norman Dunn had lost by only five votes to the PNP’s Dr Winston Green. Dr Green died suddenly in August 2017, triggering the calling of a by-election. Dr Dunn won the hotly contested by-election. Recall Dr Dunn received 8,176 votes to defeat Dr Shane Alexis, who polled 7,239 votes.

My forecast is that Dr Dunn will increase his margin of victory in the upcoming election. Like Ann-Marie Vaz he has put in the hard work. Still, Annotto Bay is calling him to visit there more often.

• St Thomas Eastern is going to be a battle royal. In the 2020 parliamentary election, Dr Michelle Charles got 6,126 votes to Dr Fenton Ferguson’s 5,392. Dr Charles has done quite a bit of work and the Morant Bay Urban Centre is a big fillip. She still needs to do a lot more work in the divisions of Dalvey, Bath, and Port Morant. Like Montague, Dr Charles needs to do a tremendous amount of mea culpa, and thereafter some heartfelt reconnecting and recommitting. The PNP’s standard-bearer knows the lay of the land. The PNP’s municipal by-election win for the Morant Bay Division last November should have set off alarm bells at 20 Belmont Road. I am forecasting that Charles will retain the seat, but by a cat’s whiskers.

* Clarendon North Western is an uphill task for the JLP. Outgoing MP Phillip Henriques has not put a lot of runs on the board for the JLP standard-bearer Warren Newby. Recall, Henriques amassed 6,124 voted to Richard Azan’s 6,009 in 2020. I suspect this is Azan’s last political rodeo. Newby has much door-knocking to do, particularly in Aenon Town and Croft’s Hill. I forecast a narrow win for Newby.

• Clarendon Northern, 708 votes separated the JLP’s Dwight Sibblies and the PNP’s Horace Dalley in 2020. Although Sibblies has for the most part been on the ground and has done some very good work in social and infrastructural development, he would do well to pound the pavement a lot more. Sibblies may well think he has a shoo-in, but the race is much tighter than he may realise. This one is too close to call at this time.

ISRAELITES SYNDROME

Two Sundays ago I said here that there needed to be a pivoting in the campaigns. Some readers have asked me to explain. In the book of Exodus there is the account of the deliverance of the Israelites from bondage by God via Moses. Moses performed several miracles but some Israelites wanted to return to Egypt. Human nature has not changed for centuries. Some always want to go back to Egypt. Those have to be shown the Promised Land.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

PNP President Mark Golding (left) and the party’s caretaker for Kingston Central Steve McGregor doing a tour of the constituency. (Joseph Wellington)

Leader of the Jamaica Labour Party Andrew Holness (left), Member for Portland Western Daryl Vaz (centre) and Member of Parliament for Portland Eastern Ann-Marie Vaz in a jubilant mood during a constituency rally at Port Antonio High School. Everard Owen

Robert Montague addresses a JLP Area Council Four meeting at Godfrey Stewart High School in Westmoreland on February 27. Anthony Lewis

From left: Members of Parliament Robert Miller, Ann Marie Vaz, Dr Michelle Charles, Daryl Vaz, and Morant Bay Mayor Louis Chin march with JLP candidate Winston Downie (centre) on nomination day for the November 22 by-election. Naphtali Junior