In the September 3, 2020 General Election there were 1,913,410 electors on the voters’ list, but only 713,082 felt sufficiently motivated to cast their ballots. In that election the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won 49 seats and the People’s National Party (PNP) won 14.

The 37 per cent turnout on September 3, 2020 was a decline from 48.37 per cent in the February 25, 2016 election in which the JLP won 33 seats and the PNP 30. The stronger minority party has been winning the keys to Jamaica House for the last 35 years. If our democracy is to strive and thrive, it requires active citizen actions, including voting in elections.

We will not achieve meaningful economic growth; further needed reductions in crime, in particular murders; urgently needed raising of standards in our education system; faster improvements in social and physical infrastructures nationally; institutional improvements nationally; urgently needed refocusing of the public sector; halting of the rate of national social decline; etc, by merely sitting, hoping and praying. We have to get up, get out, rain or shine, and vote for them. That’s just a hard reality.

BLARING CONTRASTS

Last Sunday I spoke here to the recent road trips into 19 marginal seats during the months of April, May and June, 2025, and also made forecasts in relation to seven of those 19 seats. During these road trips a contrast between those who wanted the PNP to return to power and those who wanted the JLP to remain in charge of the key to Jamaica House was very noticeable.

In summary, the PNP has stronger support among those least impacted by especially recent social and economic change/improvement. The JLP, on the other hand, has stronger support among individuals who see themselves as benefiting from especially recent social and economic change/improvement.

The JLP is generally much stronger among people who see themselves as consumers and members of an aspirational class, while PNP support is generally stronger among individuals who see themselves as belonging to the manual/traditional working class.

Based on feedback, I have concluded that, if the PNP is to gain greater favour in the majority of the marginal seats it needs to showcase more than just platitudes about party unity. The reality is some Jamaicans still see the PNP as divided into two rival camps: RiseUnited and OnePNP.

The PNP also needs to communicate more than just lofty ideals largely bereft of specifics regarding practical funding and timelines for implementation.

A better understanding and appreciation of popular attitudes in Jamaica at this time, what some scholars term as the zeitgeist, is also needed by the PNP. Feedback during the road trips revealed that some young people, women in particular, felt that the PNP was trapped in its old ways.

By contrast some older folks, males in particular, felt that the JLP was not giving enough attention to the needs of males in the building of the “New Jamaica” which Prime Minster Dr Andrew Holness talks about. Younger males, especially, felt that the economy is one which supports female mobility and minimises the ability of males to provide. Males, in particular older males, felt that areas such as education, agriculture, and manufacturing were not being given the required attention by the JLP.

If we are to halt the very dangerous decline in voter turnout which has plagued us for the last 35 years, these contrasts and related social and economic deficits in Jamaica need to be addressed urgently. I have been reminding in this space for many years that a successful society is built on a social contract. That is not an original idea. Many philosophers over centuries have espoused that idea. If people do not feel a bond that is they have a real stake in a society, they withdraw and/or, worse, try to do harm.

Here is some simple mathematics which needs to alarm all Jamaicans. The difference between 1,913,410 registered electors, as was the case regarding the voters’ list used in the September 3, 2020 General Election, and 713,082, the actual number of Jamaicans who voted, is 1,200,328. It bears repeating, fewer and fewer Jamaicans are voting in local and general elections. This is dangerous. Government by the stronger minority party is a recipe for disaster. Globally, voter turnout tends to be higher, much higher in marginal seats. I wish all 63 seats were marginal. Voters are the real prize.

REMAINING MARGINAL SEATS

Westmoreland has been faithful to the PNP for donkey’s years. Has the PNP been faithful to Westmoreland?

Some say the JLP’s capture of the three seats in Westmoreland in 2020 was a fluke. That remark and similar ones streaming from 89 Old Hope Road, especially in recent weeks, gushes: “This is PNP country.” Some people will never learn. Folks resent being treated as political property.

Who wins the three parliamentary seats in Westmoreland will come down to candidate currency, national swing during the campaign, money, organisation, most importantly getting voters to the polling booth on election day and lived experiences. Many voters have not forgiven the PNP for the neglect of the parish for nearly 40 years. Westmoreland Eastern is the most vulnerable of the three seats. In 2020, the JLP’s Daniel Lawrence polled 4,831 to the PNP’s Luther Buchanan’s 4,823. Westmoreland Western has a very vibrant JLP standard-bearer who is liked by PNP and JLP voters. Westmoreland Central will be a hard fight. Member of Parliament (MP) George Wright has been pounding the pavement, especially during the last three months. Eastern, Western and Westmoreland Central are too close to call at this time.

* St Catherine North Western — This is a do or die race. If Newton Amos loses again I think that will signal the end of his political career. In 2020, Amos got 5,261 to the PNP’s Hugh Graham’s 5,283 votes. Amos has been putting in a lot of work, so too Senator Damion Crawford, the PNP’s standard-bearer. If Crawford loses, his hopes of becoming PNP president and prime minister of Jamaica will be mortally wounded. A return to the Senate for Crawford under a new PNP president would be very iffy also, given his unsecret ambition.

“A new PNP president, Higgins?” some may holler. Yes, if Mark Golding does not win the upcoming general election his political career is finished. A quick resignation as Opposition leader and PNP president and, soon thereafter, as MP for St Andrew Southern will follow.

Amos is seen as “one of us” by some voters, while Crawford is seen by some as an “importee”. His carpetbagger history is a big negative. This factor could tip the scale for Amos. It’s too close to call.

*St Catherine South Eastern will not be the ding-dong battle that some pundits predict. Providing there are interrupting events, MP Robert Miller will retain this traditional PNP seat with a bigger margin than the 1,094 votes with which he defeated the PNP’s Colin Fagan in 2020. Miller has delivered several key infrastructural and social improvements and is very visible in the constituency. Miller’s all-embarrassing style of leadership is a stark contrast to that of his opponent.

* St Ann South Eastern has been voting PNP from “Whappie kill Phillup”, similar to St Mary Central. In 2020, outgoing MP Lisa Hanna retained her seat by a cat’s whisker. Hanna received 5,124 votes and her JLP challenger, Delroy Granston got 5,110. I forecast that this seat will stay in the PNP’s winning column. I don’t forecast a close a contest either.

* Hanover Western is a traditional PNP seat. Doubtless for several reasons when some Jamaicans think of Hanover Western they remember the ruminative three-time MP, the late Benjamin Clare, who was a State minister in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the 70s and 90s. Anyway, MP for Hanover Western Tamika Davis defeated the PNP’s Ian Hayles in 2020 by 1,021 votes. She needs to pound the pavement much more in Cauldwell, Green Island, Lucea, and Riverside. It’s too close to call.

* St Elizabeth South Western is a weathervane. At the time of the road trips the wind was favourable in the direction of 20 Belmont Road. A relatively comfortable victory for MP Floyd Green is likely.

* St Elizabeth North Eastern is a traditional PNP seat. Delroy Slowley wrestled it in 2020. He polled 7,029 votes and the PNP’s Basil Waite got 6,524. Slowley is a very hard worker. He is visible in the constituency and has been delivering several infrastructural and social improvements. His deep-rooted bond with the vast majority of his constituents will push him across the line first.

* Trelawny Northern is an interesting seat as it has been won an equal number of times by the PNP and the JLP since 1944 — nine times each. I forecast that the JLP will win this seat for the tenth time in the upcoming general election.

“So, Higgins, how is this a marginal seat,” some will inquire. Recall this bit of my definition for a marginal seat here last Sunday: “There are some seats which have traditionally voted PNP which were wrestled by the JLP during the last 9 years.”

Tova Hamilton broke the PNP’s seven general election-winning streak, between 1989 and 2016, when she defeated Victor Wright Jr in 2020. Hamilton received 8,508 votes to Wright’s 6,771 — a difference of 1,737. Hamilton is facing a formidable challenger.

Recall Dr Wykeham McNeill was the MP for Westmoreland Western for five terms. He was booted in 2020. Recall that the JLP’s Morland Wilson polled 6,148 votes to defeat Dr McNeil, making it the third time the JLP had won the seat. Notwithstanding the reality of tough and seasoned challenger, I am forecasting that Hamilton will send Dr McNeill, the PNP’s standard-bearer, in political retirement. Hamilton is a tireless worker. She has been delivering several social and infrastructural improvements, in particular, improved roads and water and she is very visible in the constituency.

* Kingston Central has traditionally voted PNP. In 2020 the JLP’s Donovan Williams polled 4,623 votes to defeat the PNP’s Imani Duncan Price, who received 4,147. This is going to be another ding-dong battle.

Williams has been “working, working, working” (think Portia Simpson Miller). But he still has promises to keep and miles to go before he sleeps. (Think Robert Frost.) It’s too close to call.

* Manchester Southern was won by the JLP’s Robert Chin in 2020. The PNP’s Michael Stewart lost by 894 votes. It’s a traditional PNP seat. Senator Peter Bunting has migrated there for that very reason. If Bunting loses that will be the end of his political career. This one is also too close to call at this time.

TRIM YOUR LAMPS

In summary, I forecast that the JLP will win eight of the 19 marginal seats. And the PNP will win three. I have 8 marginal seats being too close to call at this time.

All representatives, but especially those in the marginal seats, need to trim their lamps. In the days when light came from burning oil in lamps, a vessel at sea needed crewmen to constantly care for the lamps. This care involved trimming the wick, which drew the oil up from the storage reservoir, so that the flame would be clean and bright. A poorly trimmed wick creates a flame which is dim and smoky. Recall too the parable in Matthew 27:5 about the necessity for trimming of lamps. Lamps can still be trimmed. A word to the wise should be sufficient.

Anyway, in my piece here on June 22, 2025 I said it would be best for Prime Minister Andrew Holness to call the general election “sooner than later”. I think his best window is opened, now. What is the direction of the remaining 44 seats?

Apology

Last Sunday I noted here that Aenon Town and Croft’s Hill were located in Clarendon North Western. That was an error; those divisions are in fact located in Clarendon Northern.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Damian Crawford

Robert Miller (Naphtali Junior)

Tamika Davis

Delroy Slowley

Dr Wykeham McNeil (lPhoto: Anthony Lewis)

Peter Bunting

Garfield Higgins