Key Points:

Consumer confidence hit a record high of 186.35 in Q2 2025, reflecting steady optimism beyond election cycles.

Business confidence remains stable, driven by internal improvements rather than strong economic outlooks.

Firms are investing in logistics, tech, and regional expansion to counter global trade challenges.

CONSUMER confidence in Jamaica has soared to its highest level in over two decades while business confidence remians stable according to the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce’s (JCC) 2nd Quarter 2025 Business and Consumer Confidence Survey.

The index, which measures how Jamaicans feel about the economy and their personal prospects, rose by 1.4 per cent between April and June 2025 to reach 186.35, the highest on record.

“We are virtually at the peak of consumer confidence in all of the 24 years that we’ve been doing this study,” said Don Anderson, executive chairman of Market Research Services Ltd.

The results were based on interviews with 635 household participants and reveal a shift in how consumers are reacting to the broader environment. Historically, confidence peaks in election years, spurred by political promises. However, Anderson noted a change in trend: While elections once triggered sharp surges and subsequent declines in sentiment, recent years have shown that consumer confidence is now levelling off at consistently higher levels.

“The electorate has become a little more mature and is not responding willy-nilly to promises made by both parties in an election environment,” Anderson added.

This more measured optimism is being reflected in expectations for the future. Respondents identified education, the small business sector, and power supply as the top three areas they believe will improve in the coming year.

“There is a significant increase in entrepreneurship — and the entrepreneurship has been largely small businesses at the moment — and there’s no surprise, therefore, that 42 per cent of the persons we interviewed say that the small business sector is a dynamic area and one that is likely to grow,” said Anderson.

While consumer confidence is surging, business confidence remains stable, rising slightly by 1.7 per cent in the second quarter to 134.7 points. This figure is still below the 138.86 recorded last year. However, business leaders believe that the stability in sentiment is not being driven by optimism about the economy but rather by the steps businesses have taken internally to strengthen their position. Expectations for the economy over the next 12 months among businesses improved only slightly, from 40 per cent to 44.1 per cent. That outlook was more pronounced among small businesses, with 44 per cent expecting improvements compared to 41 per cent of large firms.

“Where the business confidence comes for us is not so much in the challenges we face but how better prepared we are for the challenges that are coming,” said Sudu Ramani, CEO of Hardware & Lumber Limited, in a discussion after the survey was read.

He explained that many businesses have strengthened debt management, streamlined procurement, and improved efficiency in anticipation of future volatility. For his company, consolidating shipments and maximising container space has been key to mitigating rising shipping costs.

“We are no longer doing factory-direct supply but consolidating it, adding a lot of smaller goods that can fill in the space of the container so the cost of shipping is now distributed over more SKUs [stock keeping units], and therefore we can maintain the cost per unit of shipping,” he said.

CEO of Kingston Wharves Limited Mark Williams pointed to global trade disruptions — such as those caused by re-routed ships around the Red Sea — and noted that delays of 10–14 days are adding up to US$1 million per ship in additional costs. In response, the port operator has invested heavily in logistics, technology, and physical infrastructure to speed up cargo processing. Williams shared that once vessels arrive, “their number one priority is to get in and out” to ensure efficiency in containing costs. Kingston Wharves has expanded its warehouse footprint, opening a 110,000-square-foot facility and refurbishing another 60,000 square feet for commercial use. Additional cranes and reach stackers have been added to boost productivity ahead of the Christmas shipping season. Williams also noted that many Jamaican businesses are no longer just focused on domestic growth but are eyeing regional and international markets.

“Because businesses are looking to expand, there are more opportunities,” he said.

According to Williams, trade patterns are shifting and Jamaica is positioning itself as a beneficiary, especially as Latin American suppliers seek new markets beyond the US. Firms are making deliberate investments in artificial intelligence, supply chain resilience, and international expansion, not because of favourable economic winds but because they understand the headwinds. The JCC’s Business and Consumer Confidence Survey, now nearing its 100th quarter since launching in 2001, draws on interviews with over 600 households and 100 businesses.