LOW literacy and numeracy rates could trigger an economic crisis and stall Jamaica’s development. That’s the warning from principal of the University of the West Indies, Mona, Professor Densil Williams, who says the issue threatens to shrink the country’s middle class, which is a key measure of economic stability and growth potential.

“When you have a statistic that tells you that come September of 2025, over 11,000 students will be leaving the preschool and going onto primary school who can’t read and write, but even more frightening, [that] 33 per cent of students in the age cohort seven to 14 [years old] are not literate, and even more troubling, within the same age cohort, 55 per cent are not numerate, this, ladies and gentlemen, is setting us up for trouble,” said Professor Williams, during a Scotiabank investment seminar at the Jamaica Pegasus hotel in Kingston on Wednesday.

Speaking on the topic of investing in uncertain times, Professor Williams identified low levels of learning and skills development as a growing risk to investment in Jamaica and the wider region. He also pointed to the widening global skills gap as another pressing concern for long-term economic sustainability. Williams noted that the shortage of marketable skills is becoming more apparent across various sectors, with the global health-care industry alone expected to face a shortfall of 10 million skilled workers over the next decade. He explained that many economies, particularly in the Caribbean, are facing challenges in building a qualified workforce due to limited access to quality education. In the Caribbean, on average, only two out of every 10 secondary school graduates advance to post-secondary education. In Jamaica, Williams said, the situation is even more severe.

“This is indeed contributing to a wide skills gap,” he said. “Jamaica’s case is even more dire, when we talk about skills gap.”

He added that addressing the skills gap is essential to growing Jamaica’s middle class, which he described as a key factor in making investments viable. While investors often focus on macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product and fiscal stability, Williams warned that persistent inequality and weak social conditions are just as important, particularly in regions like Latin America and the Caribbean. He noted that growth alone does not reduce inequality or strengthen social outcomes. Building a resilient middle class, he said, requires sustained investment in human capital, with a focus on education at all levels, not just early childhood and primary, as is commonly assumed.

“What we need is an inclusive economic road, which can only come from increased investment in education along the entire education value chain. That is important to reduce inequality and social challenges, which will impact investments,” he said.

In pointing out that the base of the economic pyramid is dominated by poor and low-income households, a structure Prof Williams described as “unsustainable,” he linked the issue directly to low literacy and numeracy rates among children aged seven to 14, particularly in poorer households. Explaining further, he said that when these figures are broken down, the disparities become even more alarming, with about 80 per cent of individuals in the poorest households lacking basic literacy and numeracy skills.

“If you build an economy on the basis of our workforce that is not certified and has low skills, etcetera, then the kind of innovation to make investments worthwhile will not be there,” he argued.

In emphasising the importance of strengthening Jamaica’s middle class as a vital engine for economic and political stability, Williams noted that the middle class plays a central role in driving demand for high-quality goods and services, supporting innovation and entrepreneurship, and maintaining accountability in governance. Without it, he warned, the environment for sustainable economic activity becomes increasingly fragile.

It’s a sentiment also echoed by economist and politician Dr Andre Haughton, who in September 2024 noted on social media: “In Jamaica, less than 10 per cent of the population is considered middle class… earning above US$40,000 per year.” By contrast, Haughton pointed out, countries such as the United States, Singapore, and China have built strong, resilient economies where more than 50 per cent of the population falls within the middle class, a result, he said, of sustained investment in education, science, and technology.

“Jamaica needs another 500,000 people in this middle class, in order to drive greater dynamism in the Jamaican economy,” said Professor Williams. “The fact is, the Jamaican economy is just too small for us to talk about the kinds of investments and the kinds of return on investment that we need with a population of nearly 2.8 million people with a middle class of roughly maybe 100,000 or less. The majority of Jamaicans are poor.”

To address the issue, Professor Williams outlined two key strategies for expanding Jamaica’s middle class: one organic and the other policy-driven. He called for targeted investment in high-quality, post-secondary education as a means of reducing the country’s widening skills gap, with the ultimate aim of growing the middle class over the next two decades. Williams noted that Jamaica’s labour force currently stands at approximately 1.3 million people. Of that, 70 per cent are within the prime working age of 25 to 55. However, only 13 per cent of that group — about 118,000 individuals — possess skill levels beyond secondary education, qualifying them as middle-class by his definition.

“We need an aspirational goal to say within the next decade or two we need to have at least 400,000 people within the workforce that are at that level,” he said.

He emphasised that clearly defined targets are necessary to guide long-term national planning and ensure that a greater share of the population can participate meaningfully in economic growth. In addition to investing in education and skills training, he proposed a second, more controversial approach to expanding Jamaica’s middle class and boosting economic growth: importing skilled labour. While organic growth through education reforms remains the long-term solution, Williams suggested that Jamaicans should not be afraid to embrace immigration as a way to immediately fill gaps in the labour market and improve economic dynamism. The suggestion comes amid widespread complaints from business owners who say they are struggling to find qualified, skilled workers locally. In 2022, Prime Minister Andrew Holness briefly floated the idea of importing workers to ease the shortage. The proposal sparked significant public backlash, with many Jamaicans instead calling for higher wages and better working conditions to attract and retain local talent. The proposal remained a point of contention into 2023, until the prime minister shifted focus toward upskilling Jamaica’s existing workforce. Since then, public discourse around importing labour has quieted, but the underlying challenges persist. Williams argues that the current labour shortage and the broader skills gap in the economy present a serious risk to Jamaica’s long-term investment climate. Without access to a skilled and adaptable workforce, the country may struggle to maintain economic resilience or attract the level of investment needed to sustain growth.

WILLIAMS… Jamaica needs another 500,000 people in this middle class, in order to drive greater dynamism in the Jamaican economy.