When I listen to the long list of personal qualities and many tasks which some Jamaicans insist that Members of Parliament (MP) need to possess and perform I am convinced that they want unicorns. The problem is unicorns do not exist. That is reality.

The fact is MPs, our elected representatives in Parliament, are human beings. Some of us forget that far too often. MPs can’t be everywhere at the same time, and they certainly cannot do everything for their constituents from the cradle to the grave.

Implementation and adoption of a job description for MPs, which Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness had promised some years ago, now seems closer to becoming a reality. But will a job description, by itself, radically change a deeply ingrained political culture of dependence and helplessness which was carefully planted, watered, and fertilised for donkey’s years?

I suspect it will take just as long, if not longer than the period corresponding to the creation and growth of the malady of dependence for us to rid ourselves of the widespread belief that our MPs are omnipresent individuals with limitless quantities of resources, especially money and time, to distribute.

REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS

As we draw nearer to the time when we will choose MPs to represent us in Gordon House, I believe it is important for all Jamaicans to examine very carefully what are the realistic expectations which can be put on those who we send to Parliament.

In a piece entitled ‘Straight irresponsible: Ignorance is not bliss’, I said among other things: “The State exists to do for its citizens, especially ordinary citizens, what they cannot effectively and efficiently individually do for themselves. This must never be confused with the State which aims to be a communist utopia, in which folks are dishonestly led to believe that manna can be made to fall from the sky.” (Jamaica Observer, August 21, 2021)

I stand by that viewpoint.

Recently, some of the parties’ standard-bearers, especially, have been spouting some eyebrow-raising promises on the hustings. It is obvious to anyone with a modicum of sense that they are digging a hole in which they will fall. The terrible impact of their certain failures and the big negatives nationally seem oblivious to them — or are they?

GUILTY BYSTANDERS

Our 19th parliamentary elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944 is nigh. We must not allow ourselves to be tricked by political and social self-aggrandisers, charlatans, and serial conmen and women whose words do not match their actions and/or in, all likelihood based on especially their reputation and record, will never match.

When we believe people’s words only we are no better than attendees at a circus in front of a magician. Magicians rely on illusions and sleight of hand, and most importantly suspension of disbelief.

Well-thinking Jamaicans must not sit at home on election day and allow those who are routinely and more often than not rewarded by bad actors for their suspension of disbelief to decide the future of this country. We must avoid that catastrophe. This means — rain or shine — all eligible and well-thinking Jamaicans need to get up and go out and vote. We need to help halt the debilitating spread of bystander malady. Our embrace of it continues to massively retard the growth and development of this country. Guilty bystanders are never virtuous.

In my The Agenda piece on June 8, 2025, entitled ‘The real situation… PNP using failed hollering tactics to distract from achievements’, I noted that: “When an Opposition is nearing a national election and finds itself facing the achievements which the Administration has put on the board, and also finds itself lagging behind in the polls, it has five possible recourses. I will talk about three and leave the other two, which are particularly menacing, for another piece.”

Recall in that piece I explained these three tactics — hollerings about corruption, orchestrated foreign press intervention/interference, and the turning on of the searchlight on an incumbent’s record of recent taxation. I noted that these three traditional tactics were duds with respect to the Holness-led Administration. Here is tactic number four:

* Tactic #4: Violence and sabotage leading up to and especially on election day. Leading up to the 1980 General Election, hundreds of Jamaicans were murdered. Dozens more were maimed. Many are still suffering from physical and emotional scars. Men and women, desperate for power, will do anything to cause them to acquire and/or retain power. That lesson is clear.

The inclination to use violence and sabotage to influence the outcome of local elections is not dead. Some of the utterances in recent times on the hustings by individuals who are vying, even for the highest elected offices in this land, should frighten all well-thinking Jamaicans.

The very brave men and women of our security forces, in particular the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF), along with diligent workers at Jamaica Customs have intercepted the importation of hundreds of guns and thousands of bullets. This with the help of cutting-edge technologies which they have acquired in recent years. Since the start of 2025, the JCF has seized 459 illegal firearms. This includes a significant seizure of 233 guns (74 rifles and 159 handguns) along with over 40,000 bullets, hidden in an industrial water heater at a Kingston warehouse.

Additionally, the JCF’s Firearms and Narcotics Investigation Division (FNID) has seized 413 prohibited weapons, representing 58 per cent of the 713 prohibited weapons seized islandwide. The grim-reapers, the importers, are not minimum wage earners. Recall that a former commissioner of police once told this country that it seemed as if there was a switch that you can turn crime on or off, and the switch needed to be discovered.

Some among us are very upset that liberating measures are hindering their access to controlling that switch. I strongly believe that the recent and massive interceptions of guns and bullets are related to desperate actions by those flicking the switch. Are the flick switchers also trying to influence the result of the election in the offing?

Common sense dictates that when we see the clear signs of a storm we take the required safety percussions. If we do not, we are guilty bystanders. I believe the Government needs to pull out all the stops to ensure that security leading up to and especially on the day of the upcoming general election is comprehensive and strategic. Believe it, there are those among us who make their living by killing. These destroyers have no qualms about killing even old ladies and newborn babies. They must never direct/decide Jamaica’s future. We must reject them with every sinew.

Tactic #5 is the most menacing will be discussed in an upcoming piece.

CORPORATE AREA DOMINANCE

Last Sunday I said here that I would begin giving forecasts for the 44 seats which I do not consider as marginal. These forecasts are based on credible poll findings which I received recently — God’s blessing with more than an average quota of straightforward common sense, credible sources, and the lived experiences of being a citizen of Jamaica all my life.

#1 Kingston Eastern and Port Royal will be retained by the People’s National Party (PNP). This is one of the safest PNP seats.

#2 Kingston Western will be retained by the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). This is perhaps the safest JLP seat in the country.

#3 St Andrew East Central will be retained by the PNP. In the general election of 2020 Dr Peter Phillips got 4,963 votes to defeat a spirited challenger, Jodian Myrie of the JLP. She got 3,881. The JLP has another enthusiastic challenger.

#4 St Andrew East Rural will remain in the JLP’s column. MP Juliet Holness is up against a stronger challenger than in 2020, but she will prevail.

#5 St Andrew Eastern: Recent credible poll findings are not indicating defeat for MP Fayval Williams. Some pundits have said she will lose. I forecast a win for her, but with a reduced margin. Williams’ challenger, Patricia Duncan Sutherland, though, might very well be at the end of her political career. Recall Duncan Sutherland failed to displace Pearnel Charles Jr, the MP for Clarendon South Eastern in 2020. She also failed to make the grade to become the standard-bearer for St Ann South Eastern. The political fat lady is singing goodbye to Duncan Sutherland.

#6 St Andrew North Central will remain green. Delano Seiveright, and perhaps the most likely successor to Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett, has all but booked his seat to Gordon House.

#7 St Andrew North Eastern will also remain in the JLP’s column. MP Delroy Chuck, I suspect, is doing his last political rodeo. Chuck will go down in history for his unrelenting efforts to maintain peace in communities like Grant’s Pen.

#8 St Andrew North Western was won by Dr Nigel Clarke in 2020 and also by the JLP’s Duane Smith in the by-election in November 2024, this to replace Dr Clarke who resigned to take up the post of deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Recall Smith polled 1,863 votes (94.4 per cent), beating independent candidate Carl Marshall who some pundits said was the de factor PNP candidate. Anyway, Marshall got 111 votes (5.6 per cent). MP Smith will win again.

#9 St Andrew South Eastern will stay orange. MP Julian Robinson is on his way back to Parliament.

#10 St Andrew South Western is easy peasy for the PNP. It is perhaps the safest PNP seat. Dr Angela Brown Burke will win by a country mile.

#11 St Andrew Southern, perhaps the second-safest PNP seat, will be easy sprinting for Opposition leader and PNP President Mark Golding. In 2020 Golding received 7,881. The JLP’s Victor Hyde polled 1,094.

#12 St Andrew West Central is a safe seat for the JLP. It will be another cakewalk for Prime Minister Andrew Holness. In 2020 Holness got 7,199, votes to beat political journeyman Patrick Roberts, who received, 3,925 votes.

#13 St Andrew West Rural, MP Juliet Cuthbert Flynn has a lot of work to do, still. The PNP’s standard-bearer has been making some headway in the constituency. Cuthbert Flynn, like Robert Montague in St Mary Western and Dr Michelle Charles in St Thomas Eastern, need to do some mea culpa, reconnecting and recommitting with her constituents, especially in the divisions of Brandon Hill, Red Hills and Lawrence Tavern. I forecast Cuthbert Flynn will take the seat again in a hotly contested race. She needs to mend fences, and fast.

#14 St Andrew Western will be retained by the PNP’s George Anthony Hylton but with a reduced margin. In 2020 Hylton got 6,216 votes to Dorlan Francis’s 4,661. Interestingly, like St Mary Central, St Andrew Western has been crying out for urgent social and economic development for donkey’s years. Like St Mary Central, it has stayed faithful to the PNP for many years. There is a wind of change blowing there now, though. It is getting stronger and fast.

GLARING MISCALCULATIONS

The Gleaner of June 26, 2025 screamed, ‘PNP optimistic it can win 10 of 15 seats in Kingston and St Andrew’. This foretelling came from the PNP’s Region Three Chairman Dennis Gordon. Gordon’s prognostications reminded me of similar anticipations in 2016 by general secretary of the PNP Paul Burke. Recall Burke repeatedly reeled off the names of JLP heavyweights who he said were “pinned down” in their constituencies and, therefore, could not help the JLP nationally.

Recall this, too: “General Secretary of the People’s National Party (PNP) Paul Burke says he’s confident that the party will win the majority of seats in the general election as it has sufficiently made up for lost ground in constituencies that were doubtful.” (RJR News, January 29, 2016)

Burke was proved wronger than wrong, as we say in local parlance.

The JLP will win eight seats in the Corporate Area to the PNP’s 6, I forecast. One seat is too close to call now.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Garfield Higgins

Crime statistics are revealing a downward trend in violent crime.

CUTHBERT FLYNN… has fence-mending to do (Joseph Wellington)

From left: Juliet Holness, Andrew Holness and Matthew Samuda on the hustings in a previous campaign. (Joseph Wellington)

WILLIAMS… should retain her seat

DUNCAN SUTHERLAND… may well be saying goodbye to politics

ROBINSON… heading back to Gordon House (Naphtali Junior)

HYLTON… should retain seat.

MONTAGUE… has work to do.

Michelle Charles and brother Pearnel Charles Jr should battle their way back to the House (.Joseph Wellington)