Scotia to investors: think ‘World x US’ for portfolio resilience
AMID rising global uncertainty, from tariffs to sudden policy shifts, investors are often reminded to diversify their portfolios. But while the advice is familiar, its application can feel vague, usually reduced to a basic mix of stocks and bonds. At a recent Scotia Investments client seminar and soiree, the firm moved beyond generic guidance, offering clients — particularly in Jamaica — deeper insights on navigating volatile markets and expanding their investment horizons.
“Based on what I’ve seen, it’s world [versus] US,” said Nickolye Graham, senior investment strategist at Scotia Investments. “There are opportunities in the market. If you compare equity returns, Canada is outperforming the US, Europe is outperforming the US, and even from a fixed income perspective as well. So there are markets out there that are bringing returns for investors.”
The discussion on diversification extended to the idea of internationalising portfolios as a way to make one’s investments more resilient, a strategy highlighted by principal of The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona campus, Professor Densil Williams during his keynote presentation ahead of the panel discussion. Williams set the tone with a road map for identifying emerging investment opportunities and sectors poised for growth both locally and globally. He encouraged broader exposure, particularly to jurisdictions like Western Europe, where strong economic activity is taking place but is often overlooked by Caribbean investors.
“On the side of Western Europe, there’s a lot of activity happening there, which we tend not to look at because of our proximity to this side of the world. In essence, we call ourselves the liability of the US because we like what we know, and we stick to where we are,” Williams said.
He emphasised that Western Europe and select developing markets offer tremendous investment opportunities and that prudent allocation across multiple jurisdictions is key to building portfolio resilience. Among the most promising sectors, Williams identified green energy and green technology as “sweet spots” for global investment. He also pointed to public-private partnerships, particularly in technology and climate-resilient infrastructure, as areas with high growth potential. Physical infrastructure such as road networks and ports, he said, can yield strong returns if investors identify the right sectors and structure deals effectively.
True diversification, the experts argue, extends beyond owning a range of stocks. Building on the idea of spreading risk globally, one recommendation for creating a balanced portfolio is to include alternative assets such as precious metals like gold, which have performed strongly despite ongoing market volatility.
“When I look at the numbers for gold over the last year, if you had invested in any form of gold ETF [exchange traded fund] or bought the gold itself, you would have gained around 38 per cent. That compares to the US market, which returned only 8 per cent over the same period,” said Marie Lyn James, head of asset management at Scotia Investments.
Pushing the conversation on diversification further, James explained that while many investors believe they’re comfortable with risk, market volatility often tests that confidence. She described a resilient portfolio as one that is diversified enough to experience normal market movement without reacting sharply to every fluctuation. This means that one’s investment portfolio moves in line with broader market trends, not in sharp or erratic directions. Building such a portfolio, she said, involves carefully selecting the types of securities included. These can range from bonds, whether government-issued from Jamaica, the US, or other jurisdictions, to corporate or private issuer bonds. It may also include consumer staples, real estate, and equities that offer both growth and dividend income, all working together to maximise returns.
“Bonds: government and corporate, high quality,” she listed as she broke down how to diversify a portfolio. “Stocks: small, medium, and large companies. Alternatives: real estate, gold, oil, and other forms of commodities. Also, it is important for you to diversify across jurisdictions and currencies.”
With the fluctuations in the market, investors are being urged not to let emotions drive their decisions, as reacting impulsively can lead to missed opportunities for solid returns. With market headlines causing frequent jitters, it was noted that the focus should remain on distinguishing short-term noise from meaningful developments that shape long-term performance, guided by sustained trends, not isolated remarks. Determining whether to act on market changes depends on several key factors, including one’s investment horizon, portfolio concentration, and how often the portfolio is reviewed. According to James, a review does not always mean immediate action. She said if the mix of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or alternatives, still aligns with an investor’s goals, a review might simply confirm that everything remains on track. However, if personal circumstances or investment timelines change, then a reassessment may warrant strategic adjustments. Even then, James cautioned against reacting impulsively. Timing, she said, is crucial. Using a recent market example, she explained how emotional investing can lead to avoidable losses. She pointed to the announcement of US tariffs — an event dubbed ‘Liberation Day’— that caused the market to fall sharply over three days in early April.
“If you said, ‘Oh my God, I need to get out by December; I need to cash out now,’ you would have lost 10 per cent solid. By April 9, the market was up 10 per cent,” she said.
Investors who took advantage of the dip and bought during that downturn saw gains of more than 26 per cent by July, according to James. Her point: reviewing a portfolio is necessary, but decisions must be informed and well timed, not based on short-term fear. The idea of having a trusted advisor to help guide those decisions was reinforced by both Trading Manager Steven Jones and The UWI Mona campus principal, Professor Densil Williams. In moments of uncertainty, they stressed the importance of working with licensed professionals who are equipped to advise on global market developments.
This underscores the importance, highlighted by Jones, of having a trusted advisor: “Question your investment advisor about their risk management framework in the organisation. If the organisation lacks a proper and well-focused risk management framework, look somewhere else,” Jones said.
For investors still feeling uneasy amid market swings, the takeaway from the panel was to remain focused on long-term consistency rather than short-term perfection.
“Consistency is more important than perfection. Markets exhibit a bit of turmoil all throughout cycles, so my advice is to stay consistent and keep investing,” said Graham.