August 3, 2025

The PNP is like Rip Van Winkle

...and even more forecasts

Unfriendly and devoid of a national and rational strategy with matching and practical actions that would result in sustained and material benefits especially for the majority of ordinary Jamaicans — that is how I see the general election campaign of the People’s National Party (PNP). It’s too late to pivot.

Nearly four years of constant campaigning on the highways and in the byways of the country were more than enough time for 89 Old Hope Road to craft and indeed fine-tune friendly policies and programmes — notwithstanding the fact the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has put significant runs on the board.

Some years ago I said here that the PNP was suffering from a famine of ideas. I think its election campaign is more verified proof that I was spot-on then and now.

I forecast that the PNP will lose the upcoming general election because, among other things, many of their ideas are extinct volcanoes. The PNP’s very foolish and suicidal opposition to the State-owned and operated rural school bus service, for example, evinced a vibe of an organisation that was very out of touch with the realities of ordinary Jamaicans.

The PNP’s absurd championing of a rural school bus system that would literally depend on the ‘goodness’ of the owners and operators of Probox, AD wagon, and assorted small motor vehicles, financed with large subsidies adding up to millions of taxpayers’ dollars, was deservedly rejected by John Public, especially on social media platforms.

The PNP insisted — until they could no longer do so — that their proposal would be hugely beneficial to the ‘small man’ and simultaneously the thousands of children who live in rural Jamaica. For the umpteenth time, in especially the last nine years, it became obvious that leadership in the PNP was massively in touch with itself, but totally oblivious to the needs of John Public. The PNP’s proposal for a rural school bus system is an extinct volcano. It was a knee-jerk reaction to the JLP’s popular model/pilot.

After four years of constant listening and electioneering into the nooks and crannies of Jamaica the PNP evidently had not learned that empty nostalgia is not good political strategy. And that, while curry favouring with the electorate was popular in the 70s, it is now treated with suspicion. Our population, in general, has evolved well beyond feasting on crumbs.

The leadership of the PNP over the last five years has been evincing Rip Van Winkle vibes almost non-stop. Rip Van Winkle is a short story by Washington Irving, first published in 1819. It tells the tale of a man who falls asleep for 20 years and wakes up to a drastically changed world, having missed the American Revolution.

Rip Van Winkle has become a byword for falling asleep and then waking up to find the familiar world around has changed. I have been saying in this space for many months that the PNP’s leadership does not have a good enough appreciation for the changed and rapidly changing attitudes of most Jamaicans today.

Today’s Jamaica, for the most part, is dominated by aspirational tendencies. There is a rapidly expanding aspirational class who want nice things. They are seeing daily what is norm in the rest of the world via the Internet/phones.

Scholars in media studies say the average person is spending upwards of 5-8 hours per day glued to their smartphones. I said here previously that no matter how poor and or uneducated some people are they always want the best for their children. That will never change.

Politics 101 teaches that politics is a market of ideas. You cannot successfully sell what the market is not interested in buying. Similarly, “You can’t fatten a pig on market day.” Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard made this saying famous. It means you have to consistently be seen to be working hard and be delivering goods and services which are needed long before you go to the people to ask for their support to acquire and/or retain State power.

In politics, the message, medium, and the messenger are equally important. These three are products. Having disliked leaders like Senator Peter Bunting, and now seeing and hearing him spew unwarranted aggression on the hustings, has not been enticing to undecided voters. Remember the saying, “A spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down in the most delightful way.” The PNP urgently needs a total rebranding. At present, the PNP is only serving itself.

“Why do you care, Higgins,” some will holler.

I believe in a strong democracy. This requires a very strong Opposition.

FORECAST AND FORECASTS

• Manchester Central: Rhoda Crawford, in the 2020 General Election, delivered on a promise she made on national radio earlier that year. Recall she said: “I am coming for your job, Mr Bunting.” Crawford polled 8,097 votes and the PNP’s Peter Bunting received 7,112.

Bunting has since abandoned Manchester Central for Manchester Southern, a seat which has also traditionally voted for the PNP. Doubtless, Bunting believes the political pickings will be much easier there. They won’t, I forecast.

Member of Parliament (MP) Rhoda Crawford has put in a lot of hard work in Manchester Central, particularly in the areas of roads, water improvement, related infrastructural development, social welfare, and sport. The PNP’s standard-bearer is pulling out all the stops to take back the seat. It will be a battle royal.

Notwithstanding, certain figures, who some still see as “influencers”, and who some see as determiners of how some people vote, I am forecasting that Crawford, based on her very good record of tangible achievements and good social relations with her constituents, will prevail.

• Manchester North Western: PNP Vice-President Mikael Phillips could be in for a shock similar to that which Peter Bunting suffered in 2020. In the last general election Phillips polled 5,602 votes, while the JLP’s Damion Young received 4,879. Young has been doing a lot of flesh-pressing, particularly in the electoral divisions of Mile Gully, New Green, and John’s Hall. He is now a known quantity to many more constituents compared to when he contested in 2020. This is a seat that has traditionally voted for the PNP, but, according to credible information in the public domain: Phillips has not gained many additional friends due to lacklustre performance as the MP. Phillips has also estranged some who have been traditionally very loyal to the PNP. The PNP’s position in relation to the rural school bus model/pilot of the incumbent has not won Phillips many brownie points. This one is too close to call.

• Manchester North Eastern: This seat will stay green, I forecast. JLP standard-bearer Senator Audrey Marks has hit the ground running. Veteran MP Audley Shaw polled 6,909 votes in 2020 to beat Donald Jackson of the PNP, who received 2,990.

• Trelawny Southern: MP Marisa Dalrymple-Philibert is on her way back to Gordon House for another term, notwithstanding the fact that she is up against a much stronger challenger this turn than in 2020 when she polled 7,093 votes to defeat Lloyd Gillings of the PNP. He got 3,030 votes.

“Mam D”, as she is affectionately known to her constituents, has delivered tangible results, especially regarding water, road, and related improvements. She is seen as very approachable by many of her constituents — PNP and JLP — and is also very visible in the constituency.

If the JLP voters in Warsop, Ulster Spring, Albert Town, and Lorrimers turn out in greater numbers compared to the election of 2020, she will increase her margin of victory appreciably.

* Hanover Eastern: MP Dave Brown still has a lot of work to do in the electoral divisions of Hopewell, Sandy Bay, and Chester Castle. In 2020 Brown polled 5,972 votes to the PNP’s Wavell Hinds’ 4,377. Brown has a stronger challenger now. His creditable record as MP, and help from two PNP defectors, give him an advantage. Brown will win again, I forecast.

• St Elizabeth North Western is a very strong JLP seat. Some will doubtless remember the name Cleveland Neville Lewis when they think about especially the political history of this constituency.

“… Lewis was minister of social security from 1980-1983 and local government from 1983-1989. He rose to the position of JLP deputy leader in 1981 and held the post until 1993. He was Member of Parliament for St. Elizabeth North Western from 1976 until his retirement from active politics in 1993. During his tenure as MP, Lewis was known for his grass roots style of politics and was instrumental in the rebuilding of the New Market community “Lewisville” after major floods in 1979.” (
Jamaica Information Service, January 14, 2007)

Melford Brown of the PNP won the seat in 1993. William J Hutchinson, “JC”, of the JLP regained the seat in 1997. Hutchinson has held the seat since then. In 2020 he polled 4,834 votes to defeat Ryan Keating, who received 2,163 votes. Last year there were some rumblings in the constituency about poor representation. Those are “settled”, I was informed. I forecast a comfortable win for the JLP.

• St Elizabeth South Eastern: This seat has traditionally voted PNP since 1944. In the JLP landslide victory in 1980 Cecil July, of the JLP, won the seat. The JLP retained the seat in the 1983 General Election.

“Higgins, the event in 1983 was a selection, not a general election,” some will holler.

The Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ), the duly constituted authority responsible for, among other things, the conduct of elections in Jamaica, says a general election was held on December 15, 1983 in this country. It was won by the Edward Seaga-led JLP. The Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) is now subsumed in the ECJ. Argument done, as we say locally!

Anyway, Franklyn Witter wrestled the seat from the PNP in 2007. Witter was defeated in 2011 by Richard Parchment. In a nail-biter, Witter took back the seat from Parchment in 2016. Witter won again in 2020. He polled 8,995 votes to defeat Dwaine Spence of the PNP, who received 6,349.

The closure of the JISCO Alpart alumina refinery in Nain, St Elizabeth, for modernisation since 2019 has hit this constituency hard. Voter turnout in Junction and Southfield will decide who wins this seat. This is too close to call at this time.

• St James Central: Deputy Speaker of the House Heroy Clarke won this seat in 2020 when he polled 6,456 votes to beat the PNP’s Andre Hylton, who received 3,607. I forecast that Clarke will win again, but with a slightly reduced margin this turn.

• St James East Central: Edmund Bartlett has a more formidable challenger than last time. In 2020, Bartlett polled 7,338 to defeat the PNP’s Michael Hemmings, who received 3,206. Bartlett has spent millions of dollars on educational and related programmes; in particular, grants and scholarships for dozens of especially children and college-aged youngsters in his constituency. He has also done a fair bit of physical infrastructural work. I forecast a win for the tourism minster.

• St James North Western is a safe JLP seat. MP Dr Horace Chang polled 5,992 votes in 2020. George Hamilton of the PNP got 1,880 votes. Dr Chang’s political stocks have increased in value considerably owing to the historic 43 per cent fall in murders and even bigger decreases in other major crimes nationally. I forecast that Dr Chang, who some say is the best minister of national security since 1962, will win.

• St James Southern is going to be a tough fight for MP Homer Davis. This is a traditional PNP seat. In 2020 Davis polled 7,223 to beat Dr Walton Small of the PNP, who received 5,275.

Some will remember the name Derrick Kellier when this seat comes up for discussion. Kellier won this seat in six consecutive general elections that is between 1989 and 2011. Davis has stepped up his presence in the constituency over the last several months. He has done much work with respect to social intervention and physical infrastructural development. Voter turnout in Maroon Town, Catadupa, and Cambridge will determine the winner. This is too close to call at this time.

• St James West Central will be a closer contest than in 2020, I forecast. MP Marlene Malahoo Forte still has a lot of door-knocking to do, particularly in the electoral divisions of Spring Garden and Mount Salem. This is too close to call at this time.

What of the remaining seats in St Catherine?

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

CRAWFORD… should retain seat

BUNTING…abandoned Manchester Central for Manchester Southern.