BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) – Hurricane Erin on Sunday weakened from a powerful Category 5 to a still-dangerous Category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour, but the system has grown in size as it edges closer to parts of the northern Caribbean.

According to the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC), at 11 am, Erin was about 200 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and roughly 240 miles east of Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands. The storm, which intensified rapidly on Saturday, is expected to fluctuate in strength over the next two days, the NHC said, “but Erin is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week”.

Erin is moving west-northwest at around 13 miles per hour but is forecast to slow further today before gradually turning north on Monday and Tuesday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Turks and Caicos, where stormy conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for the southeast Bahamas, which could begin feeling impacts from Erin’s outer bands by Sunday night.

Although maximum winds have eased to 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds extend 25 miles from the centre, while tropical storm-force winds now reach as far as 205 miles. That means dangerous conditions may affect islands well outside the hurricane’s direct path.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with some areas at risk of flash flooding, landslides, or mudslides as rainfall totals could reach up to eight inches.

Swells generated by Erin are already affecting parts of the northeastern Caribbean and are expected to spread to the Bahamas and beyond, creating rough seas and life-threatening rip currents.

Meanwhile, the NHC is monitoring another tropical wave that has just moved off the coast of Africa. While chances of development are low in the short term, forecasters say conditions could become more favourable in the central Atlantic by midweek.