When Jamaicans think about imports, the conversation typically centres on consumer goods: clothes from Shein, the latest electronics from Amazon, or packaged foods lining store shelves.

However, behind these everyday items lies a category of imports that is arguably even more crucial to the nation’s economic well-being: the intermediate goods and materials that fuel Jamaica’s manufacturing sector.

Recent research by master’s students at The University of the West Indies, Mona, highlights the vulnerabilities within Jamaica’s manufacturing supply chain by tracing the origin and risks associated with these critical imported inputs. In today’s volatile, unpredictable, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) global environment, Jamaica’s heavy reliance on foreign sources for manufacturing materials increasingly exposes the sector to significant risks. While resource constraints limit local production capacity, the study reveals how international trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions threaten to paralyse manufacturing output.

Manufacturing contributes between 7 per cent and 9 per cent of Jamaica’s gross domestic product (GDP) and depends heavily on imports of chemicals, machine parts, packaging materials, and other intermediate goods sourced from a limited number of countries. This concentration creates choke points that can halt production lines in the event of supply chain disruptions, whether due to tariff wars, like those between the US and China; natural disasters; or conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, which severely impacted wheat production in 2022/2023.

The research employed a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to identify the top intermediate imports essential to manufacturing, considering factors such as import dependency, substitutability, and exposure to external risks. Key inputs include, but are not limited to, mineral oils (fuel and diesel), wheat, polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), all vital for driving Jamaica’s food manufacturing, energy sector, and producing plastics and packaging materials. For example, Jamaica’s wheat imports are largely sourced from the US and Canada, a narrow supplier base that underscores the fragility of the supply chain.

To strengthen resilience, the study recommends diversifying supply sources and exploring product substitution. Jamaica could leverage regional partnerships within the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), deepening trade ties with countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, and Mexico. Enhancing local production capabilities and promoting substitutes is equally important, an effort supported by the Government’s 2022 wheat flour substitution programme, which encouraged replacing imports of wheat with local alternatives, such as cassava.

Another strategic measure is adopting local and regional pooling for procurement and storage. By consolidating purchases, manufacturers can benefit from bulk discounts and better warehouse utilisation. A united Caricom approach, with Jamaica and Trinidad collaborating as a single buyer, could increase bargaining power and improve supply security. Crucial to this effort is the establishment of a national supply chain digital dashboard to provide transparent, real-time visibility for all stakeholders across public and private sectors.

While consumer imports often capture the public’s attention, it is the stability and diversity of Jamaica’s manufacturing inputs that underpin the country’s economic future. Building resilience through diversification, regional collaboration, and improved local production is imperative. Strategic interventions today will safeguard Jamaica’s manufacturing sector against the uncertainties of the global economy tomorrow.

Javere Green, Camella Gunter, Kisha Williams-Hare, and Rodeen Lynch are MSc logistics and supply chain management students at Mona School of Business & Management. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or javeregreen@live.com.