As Jamaica prepares for the September 2025 General Election, voters face a crucial decision: Will they stick with traditional party loyalty or make more practical, issues-focused choices?

For decades the green and orange divide has shaped not only politics but also communities, families, and friendships. However, in 2025, the question is more important than ever: Are Jamaicans moving away from tribal loyalties to consider which party can best address urgent national issues like crime, economic struggles, and youth opportunities?

A growing body of evidence suggests that issues-based voting is gaining traction. A December 2023 Don Anderson poll revealed that 51 per cent of Jamaicans said their votes would be determined primarily by issues like crime, road condition, water, and unemployment. Only 18 per cent pointed to party affiliation as the main factor influencing their decision. This marks a sharp departure from the historic dominance of diehard loyalty, and for the first time, policy issues appear to outweigh party identity in shaping voter behaviour. Conversations on the ground echo this change, with many Jamaicans frustrated at what they see as repetitive promises and little tangible improvement in their daily lives. “Same promises, different faces”, a patty vendor in Half-Way-Tree remarked, capturing the growing impatience with campaign rhetoric.

That said, party loyalty has by no means disappeared, it remains a powerful factor for a significant portion of the electorate. Polls conducted in mid-2025 show that among People’s National Party (PNP) supporters, 29.1 per cent cited anti-incumbency as their main reason for backing the party, while 24.2 per cent still pointed to loyalty, and another 22.2 per cent believed the PNP simply deserved another chance at leadership. For Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) supporters, loyalty was cited by 22.3 per cent, while 22.9 per cent credited the party’s performance, and 21.3 per cent noted ongoing government projects as their reason for support.

These figures show that while policy issues are increasingly at the forefront, the pull of history, identity, and family tradition continues to exert a strong influence. As one Trelawny resident admitted in a 2024
Gleaner feature, despite dissatisfaction with local governance, “Mi family always vote green, so mi nah change.”

The rise of swing and undecided voters is perhaps the most significant development of this election cycle. Recent polls indicate that nearly two-thirds of undecided Jamaicans claim no party affiliation, while smaller groups lean slightly towards the PNP (21 per cent) or JLP (16 per cent). This suggests that policy persuasion, rather than brand loyalty, may determine the outcome in several key constituencies. Political commentators have stressed that this bloc of voters represents the true battleground, as both major parties cannot rely solely on their bases but must make compelling, issues-driven appeals to those who remain uncommitted.

Statistical snapshots of the race reinforce just how fluid the political landscape has become. Another Don Anderson poll, conducted in June 2025, showed the PNP narrowly ahead, with 32.6 per cent compared to the JLP’s 29.6 per cent, though a significant 19.4 per cent of voters remained undecided. A Bluedot survey released around the same period showed the opposite trend, with the JLP leading 35 per cent to the PNP’s 31 per cent. A leaked JLP internal poll in February gave the governing party a 5.8 per cent lead, but, again, nearly 30 per cent of voters described themselves as undecided. Such volatility makes it clear that Jamaicans are no longer bound to traditional loyalties; their support is conditional, and policies may make the difference.

Yet beneath these shifting numbers lies another critical challenge: voter apathy. A 2023 Bluedot poll revealed that more than half of Jamaicans were undecided or disinterested in voting, underscoring how disengagement threatens the vibrancy of democracy itself. Low turnout has plagued Jamaican elections in recent years, and unless both parties make stronger efforts to connect with ordinary citizens on issues that directly affect their lives, the silent force of apathy may overshadow even the fiercest campaign strategies.

Ultimately, Jamaica’s electorate is evolving in ways that demand attention. While party colours still matter, they no longer guarantee allegiance in the way they once did. Increasingly, Jamaicans are asking which party has the best answers, not which party has the longest tradition. To shape the outcome of this election, political leaders must prioritise issues-driven campaigns, provide credible policy proposals, and demonstrate transparency in governance. Special emphasis should be placed on youth engagement, as younger voters are neither deeply loyal to the old party system nor entirely disengaged; they are watching carefully to see who offers genuine opportunities and inclusion. Civic education, voter outreach, and a renewed effort to reduce apathy are equally essential if turnout is to be strengthened.

The 2025 General Election could very well mark a turning point in Jamaica’s political culture. For the first time in generations, voters are weighing not just the colours they wear on Election Day, but the tangible outcomes they expect the next Government to deliver. If this trend holds, Jamaica’s politics may finally move from being a contest of loyalty to a contest of ideas.

Shawn Smith is a change specialist and business development consultant. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or shawnthesocialpractitioner@gmail.com.

Party loyalty remains a powerful factor for a significant portion of the electorate.

The rise of swing and undecided voters is perhaps the most significant development of this election cycle.

The 2025 General Election could mark a turning point in Jamaica’s political culture.