THE Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Fayval Williams is all set to secure another story in the archives of Jamaica politics — this time she will do so by being the first Member of Parliament (MP) of St Andrew Eastern to secure three consecutive terms. And her ride into history is unlikely to be halted by the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Patricia Duncan Sutherland.

Williams has already entered the record books as the first female to be elected MP for St Andrew Eastern.

Duncan Sutherland chose the most unlikely of constituencies to break her losing cycle, having suffered two straight losses in Clarendon South Eastern where she lost by just under 1,000 (958) votes to former MP Rudyard Spencer in 2016, and then in 2020 when she lost to Pearnel Charles Jr by a whopping 2,500 votes.

So why is St Andrew Eastern the most unlikely of constituencies for Duncan Sutherland? The social demographic dynamics are as such that melodramatic politics would not be a welcome fit at any end of the social spectrum.

Historically the JLP holds the statistical advantage, having won seven to the PNP’s six elections in the constituency since 1944.

If the PNP is to create the unlikely upset and cut short Williams’ attempt, instead writing Duncan Sutherland into the history archive, she would either have to pull out a Mona Division-winning hat-trick or double the number of PNP votes in the Papine Division to stave off the JLP’s consistent showing in the Mona Division.

In 2011 that was the route of Andre Hylton into Gordon House and that’s the pony Duncan Sutherland would need to ride, if she is to have a chance.

Hylton lost the Mona Division to Dr Sapphire Longmore by 301 votes but was able to come out of the Papine Division ahead by 605 votes, and so secured the victory by a marginal 254 votes.

Voter turnout in the September 3 General Election is expected to be between 58 and 60 per cent in St Andrew Eastern, which is about usual for this constituency even in a high-momentum campaign. In 2007 the turnout was 62 per cent.

The base of both parties is on a high and this will undoubtedly tighten the contest, but unless there is extraordinary breakdown in its election day strategy the JLP should not be deprived of the crowning moment when the ballots are counted for St Andrew Eastern soon after 5:00 pm.

In addition, Williams is bound to get a bounce from the ‘Choose Jamaica Campaign’ and from the favourability of the party’s leader, Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness.

— Venesha Phillips is a JLP activist who served in the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation as councillor for the Papine Division for several years on a PNP ticket. The PNP did not submit its prediction up to press time.

Patricia Duncan Sutherland (second left) celebrates with her supporters on nomination day, August 18, 2025. Duncan Sutherland is aiming to return St Andrew Eastern to the PNP’s win column. (Photo: Collin Ried)