“In summary, the JLP will win 36 seats and the PNP 11; 16 are too close to call at this time, I forecast. There will be no honeymoon for the winners or losers.” I said this here three Sundays ago. In politics that is a very long ago. Indeed, several very important events have taken place since the mentioned forecasts 21 days ago.

Without doubt, the announcement of the date for the holding of our 19th parliamentary election since universal adult suffrage in 1944, by Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness, was the most important political event to have happened in the last three weeks. We are now three days away from election day.

As I said here last Sunday: “We can either choose to advance or regress. To me, the clear choice is between an unusable past; meaning a resurrection of the dreaded 1970s and 90s, versus the present modernisation of Jamaica’s education system, roads, hospitals, courts, markets, security services, civil services, critical human rights and environmental protections, Internet infrastructure, port and shipping facility expansions, etc.” The stakes are high. Yours, Jamaica’s future is at stake.

LIKE CHALK AND CHEESE

Expectedly, campaigning has been revved-up since the announcement of the general election date in Half-Way-Tree on August 10. Some say it was one of the biggest crowds in several decades. The ability of a major political party, like the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), to bring out a bumper crowd, especially on the occasion of the announcement of the date of a general election, is very critical.

Why? Among other things, if the JLP had failed, the optics would have been devastating for Alexander Bustamante’s party and simultaneously a massive gift to the People’s National Party (PNP), whose founding president was Norman Manley. The ability of a political party to bring out a bumper crowd when it matters is a very good indication of especially internal organisational strength. Only the most rabid and mean-spirited political actors among us would disagree with pundits/commentators and others who say that the mentioned mass rally was one of the biggest, well-organised, and meaningful in several decades. The integration of the latest technology to create an all-embracing atmosphere was just very impressive.

Relatedly, it has long been accepted in the arena of especially political communication that turning out a bumper crowd when it matters most is vital fuel for the 3Ms of political campaigning. I previously discussed here the crucial 3Ms — message, money, and momentum. With the use of ample examples, I previously noted here, too, that while crowd sizes are very crucial, they are not bullet-proof indicators or predictors of election outcomes. This is a settled matter in politics.

Anyway, recall that the JLP, based on credible polls, had the momentum-advantage going into its Half-Way-Tree mass meeting. That momentum would have been boosted by the hitherto unprecedented handing out of thousands of achievement booklets across the island by Cabinet members headed by Prime Minister Holness and hundreds of JLP workers, and well-wishers, on July 30, 2025.

The feedback to the JLP’s achievement booklet innovation has been massively positive nationally. It is easy to see that this innovation is part and parcel of the JLP’s 3Ms propulsion strategy. Since then the JLP’s team has been criss-crossing the country.

The PNP, on the other hand, has been campaigning nearly non-stop for four-and-half years. They have realised some important gains in that time. Two and half weeks ago the PNP launched their manifesto. Undoubtedly, its timing was a response to the huge pressures brought on by the massively positive response to the JLP’s achievement booklet and the Half-Way-Tree mass rally.

To me, the fact that the PNP waited until “pressure buss pipe”, as we say in local parlance, is a reminder that the PNP still fervently believes Jamaica is PNP country. Its members and leadership clearly still do not get it that many Jamaicans deeply resent the view the PNP has that it is entitled to govern Jamaica. The PNP does not understand this local adage either, “He who has raw meat seek fire.” Based on credible poll findings before the announcement of the date of the general election the PNP was trailing the JLP.

Recall this: “The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leads the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) by 4 per cent with three months to go before a general election is due.” (Nationwide News Network, May 30, 2025)

“That was way back in May,” some will shout.

Many voters make up their minds as long as two years before a national election. There are several credible studies and abundant amounts of peer-reviewed literature which supports the view that many voters do not wait until the 11th-hour to make up their minds about who to vote for.

Anyway, feedback to the PNP’s manifesto has been largely mixed. Some pundits, commentators, and John Public are still asking, when, where and how. The PNP says its proposals are “fiscally sustainable”. I am not convinced of that in the absence of further and better particulars from 89 Old Hope Road.

Every well-thinking Jamaican would do well to be a Doubting Thomas, given the history of disastrous economic mismanagement by the PNP since 1962. Except for the Portia Simpson-Miller Administration between January 2012 and February 2016, when Dr Peter Phillips was the minister of finance and the public service and de facto prime minister, the PNP has been an absolute stranger to actions that qualify as “fiscally sustainable”. I have presented incontrovertible evidence on that score previously.

Here are also three considerations that must not escape our notice either. First, Dr Phillips, who said, “The biggest legacy we can give to future generations of Jamaicans is low debt,” (Nationwide News Network, July 19, 2022) has retired from the political arena. Second, there are loud whispers in the public domain that if the PNP were to win the general election on Wednesday, spokesperson on finance and the public service Julian Robinson would not actually get the keys to manage the national cash box. Third, if the PNP were to win State power the hand-holding which was provided to the Simpson Miller Administration by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would be absent. These considerations must concerns all well-thinking Jamaicans.

Relatedly: “The JLP, at a press conference, questioned how many of the programmes outlined in the document — which it dismisses as ‘AI-generated’ and ‘cut-and-paste’ — would be funded.” (Jamaica Observer, August 15, 2025)

This is a legitimate question. Days before we choose the next Administration to manage our national affairs the PNP is yet to provide answers which prove that it is a genuine convert of fiscal prudence. Another era of profligate spending would cause Jamaica to be permanent castaways.

FRIGHTENING WARNINGS

“In war, truth is the first casualty,” said Aeschylus, an ancient Greek tragedian. Several revelations have come about during the declared and undeclared period of election campaigning that must not escape the notice of those who genuinely love Jamaica. These exposures are serious warnings.

First, what I classify as frequent political out-of-body experiences seems to have become norm for some among us who are fighting tooth and nail to get their hands on State power. On the hustings they loudly preach moral rectitude. They preach accountability, transparency, and integrity, but seem not to realise that their own words and actions in the political arena betray those very benchmarks. This is a great warning.

I previously presented here ample evidence from the public domain to demonstrate the great dangers of this harbinger. In politics and elsewhere we must pay keen attention to people’s words and actions. When we don’t we are relegated to mere attendees at a circus in front of a magician whose trade is sleight of hand and illusions. Tricking yourself is the greatest tragedy.

Second, there are some hankerers for State power who have been spewing trailer-loads of blatant lies on the hustings. Bombast and credentialism are used as disguise to trick the unsuspecting. Beware! “Anyone entrusted with power will abuse it if not also animated with the love of truth and virtue, no matter whether he be a prince, or one of the people.” — Jean de la Fontaine, poet. Open your eyes!

Third, always remember that: “An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes.” Some who suffer with vaulting ambition have shown us before and during this general election campaign that modernisation of Jamaica is not their priority. They have shown us, time and time again, that they are all about satisfying their status depravity and attendant lust for State power. These are extremely dangerous people.

Politicians who put Jamaican citizens in harm’s way to benefit themselves cannot be trusted with especially State power. Politicians who promote ignorance and use unsuspecting citizens as pawns are brutes. And bad political actors who use inflammatory language to resurrect political violence are fiends. Beware!

FINAL SEAT FORECASTS

At the start of July 2025 I began giving, among other things, forecasts on 19 seats, which I categorised as marginal based on criteria set out in my The Agenda piece of July 6, 2025, entitled ‘Kingmakers — those marginal seats’. Recall the data which helped to inform those specific forecasts were collected during road trips in April, May and June 2025. In articles leading up to my piece on Sunday, August 10, 2025, among other thing, I gave forecasts on the 44 additional seats. I noted that these forecasts were “based on credible poll findings which I received recently — God’s blessing with more than an average quota of straightforward common sense, credible sources, and the lived experiences of being a citizen of Jamaica all my life”.

As mentioned, several very important events have happened leading up to and since my piece here on August 10, 2025. New poll findings have come out, debates and mass meetings have been held, and manifestos have been released, etc. Here are my final forecasts based on criteria already set out, plus the findings of the most recent and credible polls.

19 Marginal Seats

#1 Portland Eastern – JLP

#2 St Mary Central – Too close to call

#3 St Mary South Eastern – JLP

#4 St Thomas Eastern – JLP

#5 Clarendon North Western – JLP

#6 Clarendon Northern – JLP

#7 St Mary Western – Too close to call

#8 St Catherine North Western – JLP

#9 St Catherine South Eastern – JLP

#10 St Ann South Eastern – PNP

#11 Hanover Western – Too close to call

#12 St Elizabeth South Western –JLP

#13 St Elizabeth North Eastern – JLP

#14 Trelawny Northern – JLP

#15 Kingston Central – Too close to call

#16 Manchester Southern – JLP

#17 Westmoreland Eastern – Too close to call

#18 Westmoreland Western – Too close to call

#19 Westmoreland Central – To close to call

Corporate Area Seats

#20 Kingston Eastern and Port Royal – PNP

#21 Kingston Western – JLP

#22 St Andrew East Central – PNP

#23 St Andrew East Rural – JLP

#24 St Andrew Eastern – JLP

#25 St Andrew North Central – JLP

#26 St Andrew North Eastern – JLP

#27 St Andrew North Western – JLP

#28 St Andrew South Eastern – PNP

#29 St Andrew South Western – PNP

#30 St Andrew Southern – PNP

#31 St Andrew West Central – JLP

#32 St Andrew West Rural – JLP

#33 St Andrew Western – PNP

Another 30 Seats

#34 Manchester North Western – To close to call

#35 Manchester North Eastern – JLP

#36 Trelawny Southern – JLP

#37 Hanover Eastern – JLP

#38 St Elizabeth North Western – JLP

#39 St Elizabeth South Eastern – JLP

#40 St James Central – JLP

#41 St James East Central – JLP

#42 St James North Western – JLP

#43 St James Southern – Too close to call

#44 St James West Central – Too close to call

#45 St Catherine Central – JLP

#46 St Catherine East Central –JLP

#47 St Catherine Eastern – PNP

#48 St Catherine North Central – PNP

#49 St Catherine North Eastern – JLP

#50 St Catherine South Central – JLP

#51 St Catherine South Western – JLP

#52 St Catherine Southern – PNP

#53 St Catherine West Central – JLP

#54 St Thomas Western – JLP

#55 Portland Western – JLP

#56 Clarendon South Western – PNP

#57 Clarendon South Eastern – JLP

#58 Clarendon North Central – JLP

#59 Clarendon Central – JLP

#60 St Ann North Eastern – JLP

#61 St Ann North Western – Too close to call

#62 St Ann South Western – Too close to call

#63 Manchester Central – JLP

In summary, I forecast that, the JLP will win 40 seats and the PNP, 11; 12 are still too close to call at this time.

There will be no honeymoon for the winners or losers.

See you at the voting booth on Wednesday, God willing.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Jamaica Labour Party leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness and his team hit the streets Tuesday, July 30, to connect directly with people, stopping in Papine Square, Manor Park, Half-Way-Tree, and downtown Kingston to share the party’s Record of Achievements document. (Photo: @AndrewHolnessJM)

Chair of the Jamaica Labour Party Manifesto and Achievements Committee Senator Kamina Johnson Smith shows a copy of the party’s booklet of achievements at a recent news conference. She said the party will, in the coming days, intensify efforts to ensure that uncommitted voters are further sensitised to the work of the Administration.

Talk is PNP spokesman on finance Julian Robinson may not be handed the keys to the portfolio in a PNP Administration. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

A member of the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) enters a polling station in the Corporate Area on Friday for early voting ahead of the September 3 General Election. The Representation of the People Act makes provisions for Election Day Workers, police and military personnel to vote ahead of the rest of the population, to ensure that they are available for duty on Election Day. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

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Jamaica Labour Party Leader Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness (left) shakes hands with People’s National Party President Opposition Leader Mark Golding at the end of the 2025 General Election leadership debate Thursday night at Creative Production and Training Centre studio in St Andrew. (Photo: Collin Reid)

Voters line up at a polling station in Montego Bay, St James, Friday, as members of the security forces and election day workers cast their votes ahead of the September 3 General Election.