LUCEA, Hanover — “Where the west goes, the rest goes” is a well-known phrase used to suggest the outcome of an election based on voting patterns in Western Jamaica. Hours before the country votes today, two political commentators, each aligned with one of the major parties, told the Jamaica Observer the phrase still holds — for the most part.

Western Jamaica consists of 16 constituency seats across five parishes — Trelawny (two seats), St James (five seats), Hanover (two seats), Westmoreland (three seats), and St Elizabeth (four seats).

In the 2016 General Election, Westmoreland voted exclusively for the People’s National Party (PNP). However, this was reversed in 2020 when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) took all three seats.

While the remaining parishes had mixed seats between the JLP and PNP in 2016, this changed in the 2020 General Election where all four parishes were whitewashed in green — the colour used by the JLP.

“If you win western Jamaica, it shows where the general leaning of the country is and I believe that if you do well in the west, you will do well in the east, the north and the south. So I do believe it holds [today],” argued public commentator Craig Oates, a Labourite who was a Comrade up to a few months ago.

Social commentator O Dave Allen, the uncle of PNP candidate for St James Central Janice Allen, agreed that the west is still an important gauge.

“If you go all the way back to the 1980 election it would have indicated that there seems to be this pattern [where] maybe the west reflects the nation in terms of the mood of the people and therefore wherever the west goes, the nation goes with it,” stated Allen.

Unsurprisingly, he believes western Jamaica will flip to the PNP this time around, even though he could not say if it will be a whitewash. According to Allen, the size of the PNP victory will be influenced by how the parties performed in the national debates and the JLP’s 11th-hour details about its plan to gradually increase the minimum wage from $16,000 to $32,000 if re-elected. Allen noted that before Sunday’s minimum wage announcement one poll had shown that the momentum was with the PNP.

For his part, Oates believes some traditional voting patterns will not hold this time around.

“Some constituencies that used to be a voting block for the People’s National Party — like North Trelawny, like Western Hanover, like Central Westmoreland, Eastern Westmoreland and Western Westmoreland — are no longer so because of the level of voting demographics whether through migration, whether through death [or] through voter fatigue. The dynamics have changed,” he said, adding that voters are now better informed.

Recent voting history

Trelawny Northern

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

Trelawny Southern

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St James East Central

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St James North Western

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St James Central

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St James West Central

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St James Southern

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

Hanover Eastern

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

Hanover Western

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

Westmoreland Western

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

Westmoreland Central

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

Westmoreland Eastern

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

St Elizabeth North Western

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St Elizabeth North Eastern

2016: PNP

2020: JLP

St Elizabeth South Western

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

St Elizabeth South Eastern

2016: JLP

2020: JLP

MP for St James Southern Homer Davis (left) with Craig Oates who has walked away from the PNP. (Photo: Anthony Lewis)

.