LUCEA, Hanover — With preliminary counts showing the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) winning Wednesday’s general election despite the People’s National Party (PNP) taking most of the seats in the western end of the country, some political pundits are taking another look at the old adage: ‘Where the west goes, the rest goes.’

“Traditional political wisdom no longer exists. That saying that ‘Wherever the west goes the rest goes’ was disproved because the JLP won four seats in St James, but two in Hanover, three in Westmoreland and one in St James [went to the PNP]. So it would have been six-four. But the west still did not go there,” said public commentator Craig Oates, a Labourite who was a Comrade up to a few months ago.

Ahead of the election, he had posited that the west is still an important gauge. However, on Thursday he pointed out that the adage had failed to hold up “over the last three election cycles”.

“As I had said before, you have seats like North Trelawny that people considered safe. [There is] Central Manchester that people said is a PNP seat and you got [the JLP’s] Rhoda Moy Crawford and Tova Hamilton who have gone and made those seats two-term seats,” Oates told the Jamaica Observer.

However, O Dave Allen, social commentator and uncle of unsuccessful PNP candidate for St James Central Janice Allen, was still not quite ready to dismiss the adage.

“[If] all things remained equal, I think it could hold; but it was not equal,” he told the Observer Thursday.

Asked for clarification, he alleged that the election results were skewed by vote-buying. Though that is an often-made accusation on both sides during almost every election, allegations of vote-buying have not resulted in anyone being prosecuted.

In his analysis of the election results in the west, Allen said Hamilton did an excellent job in Trelawny Northern, which put veteran politician Dr Wykeham McNeill on the back foot. In addition, Allen expressed surprise that Paul Patmore’s strength in the Lorrimers Division, which he once won as an Independent, did not translate into his victory in Trelawny Southern.

Commenting on the PNP’s sweep of Hanover and Westmoreland, a reversal of the 2020 General Election, Allen said the writing had been on the wall from the local government election in February 2024. He is of the view that the JLP’s ineffective leadership led to this drastic change.

For his part, Oates credited the PNP with effectively mobilising its base.

“The People’s National Party ran a political campaign making some promises. They got their base more animated and involved and, as such, their base turned out far better than the JLP base. You also had persons going for a third term as JLP and… the third term is not very, very easy to get,” he argued.

Looking ahead, Oates cautioned against the notion of safe seats and hammered home the importance of performance.

“What this means for future elections is that more and more people are asking for accountability. They want to see people work. Diehard is a thing of the past, and most seats are no longer safe. This will show politicians that if they no longer work, whether you be Labourite or be PNP, you are gonna lose,” stated Oates, who noted that this will auger well for good governance.

“Thirty-odd per cent [voter turnout] in a general election is nothing to write home about. We have to get accountability so that voters can come back in the process,” argued the political activist.

ALLEN…thinks the adage can still hold

OATES…traditional political wisdom no longer exists