Jamaica’s BB rating is a victory, but the real test is growth
Jamaica has earned a victory that once seemed impossible. Last week’s credit rating upgrade to ‘BB’ by S&P Global Ratings is more than just a notch on a scale, it is a resounding international endorsement of more than a decade of sacrifice, discipline, and rare political consensus.
This achievement, lifting the nation from the depths of a debt crisis that saw debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) soar near 145 per cent to a manageable 62 per cent today is a testament to what can be achieved when a nation decides to put its fiscal house in order.
The praise from S&P is unequivocal. Jamaica stands alone as “the only one of the 141 sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings that has achieved an annual primary fiscal surplus above 3 per cent of GDP for the past 10 years”. This was not achieved in calm waters, but through a pandemic and devastating hurricanes, proving the resilience of a policy framework that has become embedded in our political culture. The strengthening of the Bank of Jamaica, a proactive disaster risk framework, and a decline in violent crime further illustrate that this upgrade is rooted in genuine institutional improvement.
However, the S&P report is not just a trophy to be admired. It is also a stark prescription for the next chapter of our economic journey. The agency has handed us a diagnosis we can no longer ignore: We are a nation with world-class fiscal management but stubborn C-grade growth. The report makes it clear that the path to the next upgrade, and more importantly to widespread prosperity, no longer runs solely through higher surpluses. It runs directly through solving the growth puzzle.
S&P notes that growth “remains constrained by high security costs; perceived corruption; low productivity; low business competitiveness; and vulnerability to external shocks”. This is the definitive to-do list for the Government, the Opposition, and the private sector. We have excelled at the art of austerity, but we have yet to master the science of expansion. The central challenge now is to pivot from a singular focus on debt reduction to a dual mandate that aggressively pursues economic growth without sacrificing the hard-won fiscal credibility.
This will require bold, politically courageous reforms. It means tackling crime not just as a security issue, but as the primary deterrent to investment. It means streamlining bureaucracy and decisively addressing perceptions of corruption to make Jamaica the easiest place in the region to do business. It means investing in education and infrastructure not as line items in a budget, but as essential inputs for productivity.
The positive outlook from S&P is a gift of time and confidence. It tells the world that Jamaica is on the right track and gives our policymakers a 12- to18-month window to articulate and implement a credible growth strategy. The question is no longer if we can maintain fiscal discipline — we have proven that we can. The question is whether we can now unleash the economic potential that has been stifled for decades.
The victory of the BB rating is historic, but it cannot be the finale. It must be the foundation. The next act of the Jamaican economic story must be about translating macroeconomic stability into microeconomic prosperity for every citizen. The world is watching; the opportunity is ours to grasp.
