WHILE the current expectation is that what is now Tropical Storm Melissa will remain off Jamaica’s south coast when it begins to impact the island — possibly as a Category One hurricane — this week, principal director at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) Evan Thompson has cautioned that there is a possibility it could move onto land.

This would be the first tropical system to make landfall in Jamaica since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, as even Hurricane Beryl, which devastated sections of the island last year, avoided landfall as it sideswiped the country.

Thompson gave the caution Wednesday while addressing a special media briefing at Jamaica House on the Government’s preparations for the approaching weather system.

He warned that the biggest threat to Jamaica from Melissa is that the slow-moving system is expected to dump up to 12 inches of rain on the island in a context where soil saturation has already taken place from several weeks of daily rainfall.

The meteorologist said, while there are several models depicting the path of the system, “the latest, though, is that the consensus model is indicating that the system will continue to move closer to Jamaica and then it will, more or less, move towards the west, some distance away from the southern coastline”.

According to Thompson, it is expected that the centre of Melissa will move parallel to the southern coast, moving past Jamaica.

However, he cautioned that, “This is the main projected track, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that this is exactly where the system will go…the centre of the system could move in any position, so there is still some possibility of the system actually making landfall in Jamaica, though it does not mean this will happen.”

Thompson said Melissa is expected to become a hurricane by Friday, but Jamaica will start feeling the impact of the system as early as Thursday evening, with sections of the country closest to the centre beginning to experience tropical storm conditions at that time.

He told the media briefing that while Melissa is moving towards the west over the waters south of the island, “there is a good chance that this system will develop into a hurricane — that is what is expected”.

Thompson pointed out that rainfall associated with Melissa could persist into next week but also cautioned that by the weekend, when Melissa should be positioned over the waters south of Jamaica, it could possibly become a major hurricane. This could bring stronger winds onshore and rainfall that will likely cover most of the island, with eastern and southern parishes the likely most affected.

He warned residents of eastern parishes — Kingston, St Andrew, St Thomas, and Portland — to brace for between eight and 12 inches of rain.

“That is significant rainfall, and that is the main thing that we need to be mindful of at this time,” said Thompson.

In the meantime, Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change Matthew Samuda used the special media briefing to urge Jamaicans not to panic but to begin preparation.

“To ensure that we’re in front of the misinformation cycle which can sometimes damage preparation efforts for agencies, citizens, and communities, we will be providing information throughout the course of the storm,” said Samuda.

He told the media briefing that timely updates will be provided by the Met Service and that Jamaicans will benefit from his ministry’s bolstered capacity — the acquisition of its own Doppler Radar.

Samuda noted that before the radar was acquired Jamaica had to rely almost entirely on external sources and support for information on major weather systems.

He pointed out that as of Thursday, the Met Service will be able to provide Jamaica with updates every half-hour.

Samuda also shared that the National Water Commission has engaged all its emergency protocols.

This will, among other things, ensure that all hospitals and infirmaries are supplied with water throughout the storm if the country is impacted, and in the immediate aftermath.

In the meantime, Minister of Labour and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr told the media briefing that his ministry is prepared to respond to the needs of Jamaicans in the event the country is impacted.

“The ministry is completely activated with our readiness protocols working across all our parish offices, working with ODPEM (Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management) and across Government to make sure that the shelters are identified and relief officers are on standby,” said Charles Jr.

He added that steps have been taken to ensure that the parish offices have been providing updated reports in terms of resources, and that they and their staff are also properly resourced, “to ensure that we can undertake the necessary post-disaster household assessments if required”.

According to Charles Jr, steps have also been taken to boost the ministry’s communication capabilities, with lessons learnt from Hurricane Beryl.

Additionally, contact has been made with line-of-credit partners to ensure that food can be prepositioned if required. And emergency hot lines will be circulated to ensure quick reporting of needs and any damage, etc.

“We are thinking, preparing, and ensuring that Jamaica is as ready as we can be,” Charles Jr said.

Minister of Education Senator Dr Dana Morris Dixon (left) in conversation with Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change Matthew Samuda (centre), and Minister of Labour and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr, following a special media briefing on preparations for Tropical Storm Melissa at Jamaica House on Wednesday. (Photo: Garfield Robinson)

THOMPSON… rainfall associated with Melissa could persist into next week.