As we approach the convening of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the stakes could not be higher, especially for small island developing states like Jamaica that are becoming increasingly vulnerable to global warming.

The scientific community is increasingly clear that we are entering a period of heightened risk — tipping points, irreversibility, cascading feedbacks — yet global action remains inadequate.

The world looks to this November 10 to 21, 2025 summit not simply for rhetoric or pageantry, but for concrete commitments, real shifts, and accountability.

Brazil’s hosting of the summit in the Amazon region is symbolically potent: The world’s largest tropical forest, home to immense biodiversity and carbon-absorbing capacity, is under threat, and its survival is intertwined with the climate future of humanity. In that sense, the venue underscores the gravity of the moment. This is not just about reducing emissions, it is about preserving critical planetary systems and ensuring the resilience of vulnerable peoples and ecosystems.

The urgency of climate change is no longer a remote future. The latest science shows that many of the pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels are now exceedingly narrow. According to a recent analysis, current nationally determined contributions cover only a fraction — approximately five to six per cent — of the emissions reductions needed by 2030 to remain on a 1.5°C-compatible trajectory.

Beyond numbers, the risk of tipping points looms ever larger — ice sheet collapse, permafrost thawing, Amazon forest dieback, marine heatwaves, and the collapse of ecosystems that regulate our climate. These are not distant hypotheticals, but increasingly plausible outcomes if we remain on the current trajectory.

In parallel, the impacts of climate change — extreme heat days, more intense storms, floods, droughts — are intensifying, with particularly harsh consequences for vulnerable regions and communities. For many of these countries the climate crisis is already here. Jamaica can speak credibly to that, given our current experience with the death and destruction inflicted on us by Hurricane Melissa just last week.

The moral dimension on this issue of climate change is unmistakable: Those least responsible for emissions often bear the largest burdens. Hence, the world expects more than talk at the November 10 to 21, 2025 summit. There is a demand for urgency, ambition, and accountability.

COP30 is being positioned as a moment of truth: The summit at which delays and insufficient ambition can no longer be excused. As the Brazilian presidency has framed it, this COP is about accelerating implementation of the Paris Agreement and turning pledges into action.

Simply put, COP30 presents both an opportunity and a reckoning.