FOR the Reggae Boyz the equation is simple — win on Tuesday and they will be at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. However, if the numbers don’t add up a loss could potentially subtract all hope of qualifying.

Jamaica will end their final round Concacaf World Cup Qualifying campaign on Tuesday when they battle Curacao at the National Stadium at 8:00 pm.

The national senior men’s team, who last qualified for football’s premier showpiece in November 1997, are second in Group B on 10 points following their 1-1 draw away to Trinidad and Tobago last Friday. They were overtaken by the Curacaons who jumped to 11 points after thrashing Bermuda 7-0.

With only the group winners automatically advancing to next year’s World Cup, Steve McClaren’s men have to beat Curacao to secure their spot. However, a win or a draw for Curacao will see them qualifying for the first time in their history.

Though anything less than a win will heavily disappoint the team and millions of Jamaicans across the island, there’s a scenario where a loss would also rule them out of the final phase of qualifying — the inter-confederation play-offs.

Concacaf will have two representatives at the FIFA World Cup 26 Play-Off Tournament in March, where a total of six countries will vie for two qualification spots. They will join Bolivia of South America, DR Congo of Africa, New Caledonia of Oceania, and Asia’s representative, which will be known on Tuesday.

Concacaf’s participants will be the two best-ranked second-place teams from the three groups. Currently, Jamaica rank as the best as they have 10 points. Panama in Group A have nine points and Haiti in Group C have eight points.

However, if the Reggae Boyz lose to Curacao they can see their status removed due to the other group results on Tuesday.

In Group A, leaders Suriname, who take on the already eliminated Guatemala, and Panama who play the also eliminated El Salvador, are both tied on points but Suriname hold a three-goal advantage on goal difference. If both teams win, whoever finishes second will have a better record than Jamaica.

In Group C, leaders Honduras on eight points — the same as Haiti but with a plus two goal difference — will take on Costa Rica on six points, who still have a shot at qualifying. Haiti will take on Nicaragua on four points, who are out of contention. If both the Hondurans and Haitians win, they will move to 11 points. Either team’s record will be better than the Reggae Boyz, which would mean the second-place teams from Group A and Group C will advance.

There are two ways for Jamaica to remain as one of the two best group runners-up. One is to get a drawn result against Curacao, which would take them to 11 points. While they could still be overtaken by Suriname or Panama in Group A, Group C’s Honduras or Haiti would need to register big wins as Jamaica would end with a plus 10 goal difference. Honduras currently has a plus three, while Haiti has plus one.

The second way is to hope that results go their way in Groups A and C, meaning the contending teams drop points.

The calculations may seem a bit complicated but to avoid any potential drama, a win is the easiest way for Jamaica to show up at next year’s tournament in the USA, Canada and Mexico. And McClaren is hoping that divine intervention will turn in their favour.

“We knew it would [come down] to the last game, and so it will be. What we need on Tuesday is a great performance,” he said. “[A total of] 35,000 people, it’s important that the Jamaican people support us and make Tuesday a great occasion. It’s not going to be easy, [Curacao] are a very good team but we know what we’ve got to do — we have to win.”

“We will try as hard as we possibly can. Football’s football [but] God’s willing, we get everything right, we get the result, and the World Cup dream is still on.”

Since their historic appearance at the World Cup in France 1998, Jamaica have had failed bids in 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022.