WHILE the likelihood of Jamaica being battered by another Category 5 storm decreases as the official end of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the Met Service is cautioning that the island is not out of the woods just yet.

“The potential for strong, rapid, intensifying storms is reduced, but it is not ruled out. So even if you get a weak tropical storm — it might not be a Melissa — but you could get some rain, or flash flooding, or landslide, and still some damage,” manager of weather services at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service), Rohan Brown, told the Jamaica Observer.

Traditionally, the most active months of the hurricane season are between August and October, but late-season storms have been known to form. For example, in December 2003, four days after the season officially ended, the Met Service issued a storm warning for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Odette approached. Compared to Hurricane Melissa, Odette was doing a brisk 17 kilometres per hour and was packing maximum winds of almost 65 kilometres per hour. The warning was eventually lifted as the system picked up speed and moved away from Jamaica.

Brown explained that the factors that could influence whether there are more storms this year included water temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

“The waters are still warm, so we still have warm sea surface temperatures. We still have relatively low wind shear, and we’re in something called an ENSO-neutral climatic environment. ENSO is El Niño Southern Oscillation. So when there’s a strong El Niño, it suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, but when it is neutral or weak, it favours more storms. So we’re still in an ENSO-neutral condition,” he explained.

He added that the current ENSO-neutral climate allows tropical waves and troughs to develop more easily, often strengthening more quickly than under other conditions.

“Also, we have weak wind shear. So the changing of the wind in terms of directions at surface and upper level… the weak wind shear also allows for the development of storms as well, and that is also something important that we think about as well. There is the risk, but the risk is somewhat lower as we go towards the end of the hurricane season,” the Met Service manager said.

Brown urged the public to remain alert until the official end of the season on November 30, monitor tropical waves or low-pressure systems, and pay close attention to advisories from the Met Service. Even though there is no projected tropical cyclone activity within the next seven days, based on the most recent forecasts, he still stressed the importance of being “prepared locally”.

“Even though we’re recovering, we should still keep the gullies and water as clear as is possible under the circumstances now and do our best in terms of helping each other build back stronger and more resilient,” he urged.

Brown’s caution revived memories of the unusual formation in January 2016 of Hurricane Alex in the Atlantic Ocean.

It was only the second time on record (first since 1938) for such a rare event.

Hurricane Alex started off as an extra-tropical cyclone that formed over The Bahamas on January 6 and moved east over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Melissa made landfall on October 28, 2025 along the island’s south-western coast near New Hope, Westmoreland, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 295 kilometres per hour (185 miles per hour).

The Category 5 hurricane caused major damage to numerous homes, critical infrastructure, agriculture, and livestock. The impact was particularly severe in the western section of the island, where many Jamaicans remain without water, electricity, or adequate shelter. There have been 45 confirmed deaths to date.

Manager of weather services at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Rohan Brown.