There are certain patterns in history and certain realities about human beings irrespective of culture, geographical locale, etc. And political gravity is real and near inescapable. Foolish or convenient denials will not change the fact that political, social, and economic gravity exist. Those who ignore these realities are bound to experience a crash landing.

I take a keen interest in the economic, social, and political happenings of my country. Citizens who do not effectively put their heads under the ignorance guillotine do so at their peril.

Centuries ago, Plato warned: “If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your Government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools.”

Adopting the role of the proverbial ostrich with its head buried deep in the sand is not only severely disadvantageous in this, the Information Age, it is self-immolation.

It is self-evident that 2026 is going to be a make-or-break year for Jamaica. Last Sunday I said here that the rubber has to meet the road this year in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. Those in whichever sphere of influence and/or affluence who do not fully understand that reality are living in la-la land.

OUR ACTIONS MATTER TOO

Long ago I discussed here that “events determine elections”. Harold Macmillan, the British Conservative politician who was prime minister of the United Kingdom from 1957 to 1963, said so in an interview with the
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) decades ago. I agree.

Events determine nearly everything that happens or does not happen in this mortal life. Are most events predetermined?

There is always a plausible argument for doing nothing and changing nothing. That is called predestination. Remember, though, “If nothing changes, nothing changes.”

“We run things, things nuh run we,” Jamaican reggae artiste Red Dragon enlightened us on that crucial point of self-help and agency years ago. Predestination is a dead-end street. It is a proven formula for personal, group, and national failure and underachievement.

Of course, there are certain patterns in history, and certain realities about human behaviour. And, yes, political gravity is near inescapable. But understand this: Personal and collective actions help decide the directions of individual and national fortunes also.

NO MAGIC TO IT!

It is within this context of realistic determination that I am making some forecasts for 2026. I have absolutely no way of seeing into the future, so I make forecasts based on patterns related to past and present events, and on how these will likely influence or impact the future, plus other mentioned factors.

And I then add certain realities or commonalities about human beings, irrespective of culture and geographical location, and so on. To those I add the reality of political gravity and the near inescapability of it.

Incidentally, readers have often asked what accounts for my precision regarding election outcomes and related forecasts. Others may be wondering the same thing. However you slice it, I have been right on the button regarding the outcome of every by-election and general election since 2013. That was when I started writing in this space.

There is no magic about my forecasts. I outlined what information I used to make forecasts previously. So I would only add that I also greatly admire and sometimes draw on some of the social science approaches/models used by three genuine experts and giants in the field of polling.

They are Professor Frank Luntz, who has one of the sharpest minds in politics, and is especially skilled at crafting political messaging. He has taught at the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard University, and currently teaches at the US Military Academy at West Point.

Sir John Curtice is a British political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, as well as a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research in the UK. I think he is particularly skilled at interpreting political mood or “vibes”.

And, of course, Professor Carl Stone, the acclaimed political sociologist who pioneered the systematic study of voting behaviour here at home. Professor Stone developed some very interesting and unique ways of coding and decoding responses, given our unique economic, political, social, and cultural contexts. For example, Professor Stone observed that when Jamaicans described their condition as “not bad” they actually meant they were doing relatively well. What sounded like a negative was, in fact, a positive description.

Anyway, here is what I am calling my ‘90-70-20’ forecasts for this year regarding local and international politics. These are predictions that I am 90 per cent sure, 70 per cent sure and 20 per cent sure will (or might) happen.

LOCAL POLITICS 90 PER CENT

• The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has been at Jamaica House since February 2016. This year will be its most difficult since taking power, I believe. Harbingers are plentiful and evident.

• There will be a Cabinet shake-up before the end of 2026. I believe this will become necessary as the Administration faces growing pressure to respond faster to national demands and deliver tangible results that can help restore the lives and livelihoods of many more people displaced socially, economically, and emotionally by Hurricane Melissa.

• The trade unions are going to put a lot of heat on the Administration. I believe the major unions will take industrial action to press home their need for a better deal from the Government. The argument that inflation is in check — and being kept in check — will not convince them.

• The governing JLP will suffer a major plunge in favourability in 2026, primarily because it will have to adopt certain tough economic positions to protect the macroeconomic health of Jamaica. I believe this big fall in favourability will be temporary. The material results of the rebuilding process and the completion and launch of several generationally significant projects will restore the JLP’s fortunes over the following 36 months.

• Road traffic accidents and related fatalities will decrease appreciably in 2026, mostly due to the strengthening of and implementation of several new measures to curb indiscipline on the road.

• Taxi and bus drivers will demand a substantial fare increase. I believe there will be related protests/demonstrations in several parishes.

• Major crimes, including murders, will see a jump due to gang flare-ups, particularly within some garrison communities, I believe. The displacement and mostly removal of some of the most vicious violence producers in 2025 have created vacuums. Wannabes and has-beens — ‘bad’ men/women — will try to fill the spaces. I believe the security forces will curb any such increase before the end of 2026.

• I believe incidents of domestic violence will significantly increase in 2026, driven mainly by the emotional, social, and economic pressures from Hurricane Melissa’s widespread displacements and dislocations.

• Both tourism and agriculture will continue their rapid recovery, positioning 2026 as one of the most successful years in more than two decades for these key sectors. Recall that Hurricane Melissa, at Category 5, made landfall on October 28, 2025. It caused massive damage — estimated between $6 billion to $8.8 billion overall.

• The urgent need to dramatically improve efficiency in government operations will drive greater adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in key functions. I believe this will spark considerable suspicion and disquiet over potential job losses, making related industrial action in some sectors very likely.

• Following its third-straight general election defeat, the People’s National Party (PNP) is desperately looking for an event — local or overseas — that will massively shift the political tide in its favour. I don’t believe 2026 will be a better year for the PNP than 2025. I don’t believe that the PNP will benefit from a plunge in support for the ruling JLP, which I forecast for this year. The person(s) who will challenge Mark Golding this year, or in 2027, for the leadership of the PNP will become more certain before 2026 ends, I believe.

LOCAL POLITICS 70 PER CENT

• The parish of St James, formerly Jamaica’s most murderous, will — I believe — experience an even larger drop in murders in 2026 compared to 2025.

• Some newly elected Members of Parliament will face significant pressure from constituents over their failure to provide solid evidence that major promises — made before the September 3, 2025 General Election — will actually be kept. They will also face heavy criticism for how often they are absent from their constituencies. I believe demonstrations are likely in several seats.

• Jamaica’s civil service, long shaped by a colonial model that valued durability over agility, must urgently refocus its operations in 2026 to maintain relevance, especially amid the post-Melissa economic recovery and the pressing need for growth. I believe some major shifts are coming.

• The Mark Golding-led PNP will walk out of Parliament several times — and early in 2026, I believe.

• There will be at least one by-election, I believe, before the end of 2026, but certainly by mid-2027.

• The preparations for the Accompong Maroon election (for colonel/chief) will get very heated towards the end of 2026 as campaigning gets into high gear for the next election for Maroon chief in Accompong. The signs of rising disquiet have been evident for several months now. As I understand it, the next election is expected in early 2027. The chief serves a six-year term. The current chief, Richard Currie, was elected in February 2021, unseating the previous colonel, Ferron Williams.

LOCAL POLITICS 20 PER CENT

• Politically-driven protests are likely in several parishes, in my view. They’ll mostly fizzle out, though, mainly from lack of support from mainstream outlets and key figures.

• I believe Jamaica will experience an influx of people from Cuba and Haiti in 2026, driven by the deteriorating social, economic, and political conditions in both countries.

• I believe a top public official — one of the highest in the land — will, regrettably, announce when he’ll be leaving office because of health reasons.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 90 PER CENT

• Massive demonstrations will erupt in several developed countries as thousands of people begin to feel the direct, crippling social and economic effects of losing their jobs due to AI technologies becoming nearly ubiquitous in industries once dominated by humans.

• Massive demonstrations in many countries worldwide will occur in opposition to the building of data centres — the energy warehouses needed to power AI technologies. I believe some of these demonstrations will become violent as authorities and citizens clash. Data centres use tremendous amounts of energy, and some experts are already saying that the environmental damage they are causing — and will cause — is not worth the economic benefits the centres will enable.

• The tensions between Venezuela and the United States will end in a stalemate.

• America and China will broker a major agreement on tariffs and effectively end the trade war between the two countries. I believe, from the Donald Trump Administration’s standpoint, this rapprochement will become necessary given the bleak forecasts for President Trump and the Republicans vis-à-vis the midterm elections in the US later this year. From the Chinese standpoint, their economic growth is slowing as a consequence of the tariffs, and it would not be to their long-term advantage to continue the tariff war with America. Why?

“The Chinese nation is the most patient in the world; it thinks of centuries as other nations think of decades.” Renowned British philosopher Bertrand Russell said this in his celebrated book
The Problem of China, as far back as 1922.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 70 PER CENT

• I believe the Russia-Ukraine war will end in a broad, informal political settlement regarding the distribution of power, resources, and the future relationship between the two states.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 20 PER CENT

• If the British Labour Party performs badly in the local elections set for May 7, 2026, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham, or Ed Miliband could replace Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister of the United Kingdom.

• Several unexpected victories for the Democrats will materialise in the upcoming midterm elections in the USA, I believe.

Happy New Year!

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Public passenger vehicles will ask for a significant fare increase. 

There will be a Cabinet shake-up. Photo: Joseph Wellington

The Mark Golding-led PNP will walk out of Parliament several times. Llewellyn Wynter

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Garfield Higgins