IT should be clear, even to the most disinterested, that the present United States policy towards Cuba has as its final outcome the fall of the Cuban Government. Nothing would delight US President Donald Trump more.

This would mean that communism would be overthrown, but, most importantly, the legacy of castroism would be dealt a serious blow. Trump could then boast to the world that what successive American presidents failed to do since 1959 he has been able to accomplish in just a short period of time; what the long-standing embargo against Cuba has failed to do, he, in his omnipotence, has been able to accomplish.

If he should do this, it would certainly be a feather in his cap. The truth is that, if he wants to pursue this objective, there seems to be very little to stop him. Whether one likes it or not, the “invasion” of Venezuela to capture and bring to trial in the United States former president and strongman Nicolas Maduro was a spectacular military success by any definition.

Emboldened by this triumph, Trump has now turned his sights on Cuba but has ruled out any military intervention to achieve his aims. No one, least of all the Cubans, can be comforted by this kind of assurance from an American president who is well known to change his mind based on his instincts. His transactional impulsivity leaves little doubt that what he says in one breath can change in the other.

What is quite clear is that he is solidly committed to regime change in Cuba and realises that if this is not accomplished on his watch, he will never have another chance to do it. And he wants to be the one to do it because of the attention it will bring him and the extent to which his ego will benefit from such a “victory”.

There is little standing in the way of him being able to achieve his objectives. As his foray into Venezuela and other parts of the world, like Gaza, have shown: What Trump wants, he gets! A supplicating and weak Republican Congress has no interest in preventing this kind of adventurism on the part of the president.

Likewise, a supine Supreme Court seems disinterested in holding the president accountable for the things that he has done, some of which former presidents would have already been impeached for. With so many internal problems facing the American people, in terms of the affordability crisis across the country, from housing to health care to the brutality and cruelty of the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in their communities, the citizenry at large do not have the will to be concerned about the ending of the Castro legacy. So do not expect any protests about this, except in small pockets of special concern.

Geopolitically, the world seems impotent or at least wary of opposing Trump if he should decide to take Cuba by force. You will hear the usual rhetorical condemnation coming from the bigger powers, but do not expect any real determination to oppose his tactics. And Trump knows this. He has played them before and he knows that just by threatening tariffs he can force them into a corner of silence.

China and Russia, who have had long-standing relationship with Cuba, could make a difference, but they, too, are preoccupied with their own internal problems to be exercised about a country in trouble in America’s back yard. What can Caricom members do? Very little. Other than general diplomatic statements, they have to be walking on egg shells so as not to irritate the great bear north of them.

So, as he has said, it is only his morality (mortality?) that can stop him. Mortality, yes, but one is not sure about the morality. Trump knows that he presides over the most powerful military force on the face of the Earth. Events and statements from his Administration have shown that he is not hesitant to use the military to achieve his ends, as evidenced by the presence of the military in some communities in America.

He also presides over the most powerful economy in the world, and his morality will not prevent him from leveraging American economic might in service to his agenda, whether the American people disapprove or not.

So given all this, Cuba is in a very serious predicament. Add to this the fact that Trump is not alone in his desire to see the end of the Cuban regime. He is robustly supported by his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and it does not take a Rhodes scholar to know that he is at the centre of this agenda for regime change. From his utterances and long-held revulsion for the Castro regime, Rubio has made his intentions clear. As a child of Cuban immigrants, he has for a long time harboured this resentment against castroism. One is not arguing whether his resentments are correct or not, one is simply making the point that these are significant drivers in the present effort to end the regime.

For now, the US is indulging diplomacy while using American economic power to slowly strangle the Cuban economy by starving the nation of urgently needed oil supplies. Under Maduro Cuba was able to get the precious commodity, but since he was removed from office this supply has stopped. Mexico, which still supplies some of this need, is now being threatened with sanctions, and so is any other nation that trades oil with Cuba. The intention here is clear: Starve the country into submission or, at any rate, create the conditions for internal rebellion by the citizenry against the regime. If this should happen and is brutally repressed, then, as he has signalled with Iran, the ground would be paved for a military assault to restore order or, better yet, hemispheric order and stability.

In all of this, it is the vulnerable citizens of Cuba who will suffer most. Cuba, despite its communist philosophy, has been good to Caribbean nations. Jamaica has benefited from its generosity, especially in the area of medical support. These nations must do whatever they can to give humanitarian support to the Cuban people. The need is now.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest, social commentator, and author of the books Finding Peace in the Midst of Life’s Storms; Your Self-esteem Guide to a Better Life; and Beyond Petulance: Republican Politics and the Future of America. He hosts a podcast — Mango Tree Dialogues — on his YouTube channel. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or stead6655@aol.com.

Donald Trump (Photo: AFP)

Fidel Castro

Nicholas Maduro (Photo: AFP)

Raulston Nembhard