This is the third of a four-part series titled ‘Jamaica’s Middle Class: Priced Out of the Future’. The series analyses the growing pressures facing Jamaica’s middle-income households, drawing on official economic data, policy review, and original field research conducted among middle-income earners in Montego Bay, St James. The series examines how housing, transport, taxation, wages, and migration are reshaping middle-class life in Jamaica.

By the time middle-class exhaustion becomes visible, the damage is already underway: the queues at embassies have lengthened, the nursing vacancies have multiplied, schools are advertising for teachers who never arrive, firms are struggling to retain skilled staff, and families are quietly splitting across borders.

Jamaica’s middle class does not collapse loudly; it leaves quietly. This pattern has been misunderstood for decades, resulting in emigration often being framed as a response to poverty or instability. This explanation no longer fits. Jamaica has achieved a level of macroeconomic stability that many developing countries still chase: debt ratios have fallen, inflation has been brought within target range, foreign reserves are stronger, and international institutions regularly commend fiscal discipline — yet the exit continues.

World Bank estimates show that more than 70 per cent of Jamaicans with tertiary education live abroad, placing Jamaica among the highest-skilled emigration countries in the world. This is not a marginal leakage; it is a structural outflow. Nurses, teachers, engineers, accountants, IT professionals, and other trained workers leave at rates that exceed the country’s ability to replace them.

Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) indicate net migration losses of roughly 18,000 people annually in recent years, with skilled and working-age adults disproportionately represented. These numbers fluctuate year to year, but the direction has been consistent for decades. What has changed is the profile of those leaving. Increasingly, they are not fleeing crisis; they are departing from calculation. This distinction matters.

Migration driven by crisis is chaotic and visible, but emigration driven by incentive failure is orderly and quiet. People finish degrees, they gain experience, they comply with tax obligations, and then they leave.

To understand why, one must examine the structure of incentives facing the middle class. At the heart of the issue is delayed reward. Jamaica’s economic model asks middle-income workers to endure long periods of stagnation in exchange for the promise of eventual stability. Careers progress slowly as promotions are often tied to seniority rather than performance. Wage adjustments lag inflation, asset accumulation is postponed, housing ownership is deferred, and time is consumed by inefficient systems.

For many, the promise never materialises.

Economic theory offers a useful lens here. Albert Hirschman’s framework of ‘Exit, Voice, and Loyalty’ explains how individuals respond to declining returns within institutions. When people believe their concerns will be heard, they use voice. When loyalty remains strong, they endure. But when both weaken, they exit.

The Jamaican middle class has exercised loyalty for decades. It has rarely exercised voice through mass protest or disruption; instead, it has adapted quietly. But adaptation has limits.

Voice has also been constrained. Middle-income Jamaicans are politically diffused. They are less likely to benefit from targeted social programmes and are less likely to mobilise collectively. They do not riot. They do not strike en masse. Their compliance makes them politically invisible.

Exit, therefore, becomes the rational response. This is not a cultural preference; it is an economic decision.

Consider the opportunity cost of staying. A nurse with 10 years’ experience in Jamaica may earn the equivalent of US$1,200-1,500 per month before taxes. In the United Kingdom, Canada, or the United States, the same nurse can earn multiple times that amount, often with better working conditions and clearer career progression. The gap is not simply wage-based, it includes housing access, transport efficiency, and the ability to build assets.

When the return on effort differs so dramatically, emigration becomes strategy rather than betrayal. The cost to Jamaica is substantial. Each skilled worker who leaves represents lost public investment. Education and training in Jamaica are heavily subsidised. From primary school through tertiary education, the State absorbs a significant portion of the cost. When graduates leave, the return on that investment accrues elsewhere.

The World Bank (2021) has noted that high-skilled emigration reduces domestic productivity growth, weakens institutional capacity, and constrains long-term development. For small economies, like Jamaica, the impact is magnified. Losing a few thousand skilled workers annually has disproportionate effects on service delivery, innovation, and leadership pipelines.

The fiscal implications are often overlooked. Skilled workers contribute disproportionately to tax revenue. When they leave, statutory deductions, such as pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) collections, weaken over time, even as indirect taxes rise to compensate. This shifts the tax burden further onto those who remain, intensifying the squeeze on the middle class that stays behind.

This creates a feedback loop. As skilled workers exit, the system becomes more strained: workloads increase for those who remain, burnout rises, services deteriorate, and the incentive to leave strengthens.

Silence is a key part of this dynamic. Because the middle class does not erupt, policymakers face little immediate pressure to respond. Elections are often decided by turnout patterns among lower-income voters and campaign financing dynamics involving higher-income groups. The middle class sits awkwardly in-between.

Policy, therefore, tends to focus either on poverty alleviation or macroeconomic credibility. Both are important; however, neither directly addresses middle-class resilience.

The result is a dangerous equilibrium. The system functions, but just barely. People adapt, but at a cost. Exit continues, but gradually enough to avoid crisis headlines. This equilibrium is deceptive; it masks long-term risk.

Human capital is not easily rebuilt. Training nurses takes years. Developing experienced teachers takes decades. Replacing institutional knowledge is costly. When exit becomes normalised, the quality of governance, health care, education, and private enterprise erodes quietly.

There is also a psychological dimension: When those who do everything ‘right’ see limited reward, belief weakens, trust in institutions declines, civic engagement falls, and young people internalise the expectation that success requires leaving. This expectation shapes decisions long before emigration occurs.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has warned that persistent emigration among skilled workers undermines productivity growth and limits the country’s ability to move up the value chain. Without a strong middle class invested in staying, innovation suffers and entrepreneurship becomes cautious rather than ambitious. The tragedy is that this is not inevitable. Countries that have reversed skilled emigration trends did so by altering incentives, not by appealing to patriotism. They shortened career ladders, improved housing access, reduced time costs, and made competence pay faster.

Jamaica has not yet made this shift. Instead, policy often treats emigration as an external phenomenon rather than a domestic signal. When health-care professionals leave, the response is recruitment drives rather than systemic reform. When teachers migrate, the focus is training more teachers rather than retaining experienced ones. This approach treats exit as inevitable, but it is not.

The middle class is not asking for protection from effort; it is asking for proportional return: faster promotion cycles, transparent advancement, housing that aligns with income, transport systems that respect time, and tax structures that reward compliance visibly.

Without these, loyalty erodes further, voice remains muted, and exit accelerates.

Janiel McEwan is an economic consultant. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or janielmcewan17@gmail.com.

Janiel McEwan

In the United Kingdom, Canada, or the United States, skilled workers can earn multiple times the salary they earn in Jamaica, often with better working conditions and clearer career progression.